Best Blu-ray Movie Deals

Best Blu-ray Movie Deals, See All the Deals »
Top deals | Price drops  
 All countries United States United Kingdom Canada Germany France Spain Italy Japan
Mr. Robot: Season 3.0 (Blu-ray)
$14.99
 
Bridge of Spies (Blu-ray)
$8.99
 
To Have and Have Not (Blu-ray)
$11.85
 
Tombstone (Blu-ray)
$8.99
 
Avatar The Last Airbender: The Complete Series (Blu-ray)
$29.99
 
The Finest Hours (Blu-ray)
$8.99
 
Night at the Museum 3-Movie Collection (Blu-ray)
$7.99
 
A Few Good Men 4K (Blu-ray)
$14.99
 
Zodiac (Blu-ray)
$5.34
 
The Dark Crystal 4K (Blu-ray)
$14.99
 
Fury 4K (Blu-ray)
$19.96
 
Pitch Perfect 3 (Blu-ray)
$14.99
 
What's your next favorite movie?
Join our movie community to find out


Image from: Life of Pi (2012)

Go Back   Blu-ray Forum > Blu-ray > Blu-ray Technology and Future Technology


Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 10-24-2006, 01:24 AM   #1
Jeff® Jeff® is offline
Active Member
 
Jeff®'s Avatar
 
Sep 2006
Talking Blu-ray Will Win HDTV DVD War

http://www.tvpredictions.com/bluraywins102306.htm


News Analysis
Blu-ray Will Win HDTV DVD War
Despite a slow start, the Sony-backed format will overcome Toshiba's HD-DVD.

By Phillip Swann
Washington, D.C. (October 23, 2006) -- Sony has launched a new HDTV DVD format called Blu-ray. Toshiba is backing a rival format called HD-DVD.

Who will win this format war?

I predict that it will be Sony. And here's five reasons why:

1. Studio Support
Seven of the eight major studios have announced support for Blu-ray (Universal is the lone hold out) and four of them are backing it exclusively (they won't release titles in the HD-DVD format). This will give Blu-ray a tremendous advantage in the number of available titles in the new HDTV DVD category.

2. Play Station 3
Sony next month will launch the Play Station 3 video game console. The device, which will play Blu-ray DVDs, is expected to sell millions over the next 12-18 months -- despite a price tag of $499 or $599 (depending upon the system's storage capability.)

While it's true that Microsoft will soon sell a HD-DVD adapter with its XBox 360 console, the high-def DVD player will require a separate purchase ($199).

But PS3 comes with Blu-ray regardless of whether you want it or not. Consequently, a large number of PS3 owners will likely give Blu-ray a try because they have nothing to lose.



3. Price

How can Blu-ray have a price advantage when a HD-DVD player costs $499 and a Blu-ray player now costs $999?

To date, both high-def formats have been a disaster. Remembering the Beta vs. VHS format war of the 1980s, consumers are hesitant to buy either Blu-ray or HD-DVD because they fear they will pick the wrong format.

Consequently, Toshiba is currently not benefiting significantly from the lower price tag.

However, in 2007, you can bet that Blu-ray players will drop in price, perhaps even equaling HD-DVD's retail cost. The price reduction will generate significant media buzz, giving Blu-ray an advantage as more consumers become interested in the new players.

4. Politics
In 2007, the four studios that currently back both HD-DVD and Blu-ray will begin to question the economics of releasing titles in both formats. At some point, they will feel internal pressure to pick a winner. And if Blu-ray starts to generate more sales due to the above three reasons, they will pick Blu-ray.

5. Peace Treaty
Also in 2007, Toshiba will see the handwriting on the wall and initiate peace talks with Sony. The companies in 2005 discussed making Blu-ray the only format, but talks broke off late in the year. No surprise there; it was wise for Toshiba to first test the market before making concessions.

So I predict that Blu-ray will emerge as the dominant format in the HDTV DVD war in 2007, which will eventually lead to a negotiated settlement between Sony and Toshiba.

And once Blu-ray is established as the single HDTV DVD format, consumers will drop their reluctance and begin buying the new players.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2006, 03:23 AM   #2
jason jason is offline
Active Member
 
Aug 2006
Default

This is getting redundant...

I will soon support both but a majority of my movies will be hd-dvd (for now, cant predict the future like everyone else) found a way to secure a ps3 for me.. muahhahaah
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2006, 06:48 AM   #3
Blackraven Blackraven is offline
Expert Member
 
Jan 2005
Makati, Philippines
Default

Depending on which, there will be NO CLEAR WINNER THIS YEAR!

You'd have to wait it out a bit further because right now, the potentials of both these formats have not been fully maximized.

Try again in 2008 or 2009 if you want to see a clear victor.

But for me, it doesn't matter which one wins. They should concentrate first on defeating DVD.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2006, 09:33 AM   #4
Dave Dave is offline
Expert Member
 
Dave's Avatar
 
Jun 2006
Somewhere
Thumbs up

Every analysis says this, all companys support BLU-RAY, and only 5-6000 HD DVD fanboys think that they will save this crap format?
Hahaha! No way!
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2006, 10:27 AM   #5
Paper Paper is offline
Junior Member
 
Oct 2006
Default

I will be entirely up to the consumer. I expect Blu ray will win because it has more space and more support. I recon that it needs to do the following otherwise it won't catch on:
- It makes the final technology cheaper than its competitor
- It makes disks copyable, by getting rid of DRM
- It needs to get rid of MMC


Same applies to HD DVD
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2006, 02:57 PM   #6
Knight-Errant Knight-Errant is offline
Power Member
 
Knight-Errant's Avatar
 
Aug 2005
Sheffield, UK
Default

No way will the studios give up their copy protection as it keeps them in business. Piracy is a major problem these days and blu-ray has a more robust copy protection system than DVD.

Last edited by Knight-Errant; 10-24-2006 at 02:58 PM. Reason: typo
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2006, 03:52 PM   #7
Bicster Bicster is offline
Member
 
Jun 2006
Default

I've yet to see an analysis that includes what I consider to be a very important factor:

Blu-ray holds more than HD-DVD. It will become the de-facto standard optical drive in PCs for that reason alone. People want capacity, capacity, capacity for their PCs. Oh, and if you want to watch a movie in that drive, it'll have to be either DVD or Blu-Ray.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2006, 04:45 PM   #8
hmurchison hmurchison is offline
Banned
 
Aug 2004
Seaattle
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bicster View Post
I've yet to see an analysis that includes what I consider to be a very important factor:

Blu-ray holds more than HD-DVD. It will become the de-facto standard optical drive in PCs for that reason alone. People want capacity, capacity, capacity for their PCs. Oh, and if you want to watch a movie in that drive, it'll have to be either DVD or Blu-Ray.
Not if the price isn't right. You can buy 800GB/1.6TB tape drives but not everyone does it for various reasons.

People do want capacity but the storage device has to meet their needs. If you never have to transport more than 15GB at a time then having 50 really isn't that big of a deal. Hard drives are cheaper than ever and frankly the trend isn't moving towards optical technology. People are backing up to disc and then archiving to tape or optical. 50GB really isn't that much data for archiving. It's great for one offs and the like but even a DAT drive holds 72GB on a cheaper tape.

Right now no one knows who will win this war. I do know it's going to take years to win and the consumer will benefit from this and not even realize it.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2006, 04:58 PM   #9
Bicster Bicster is offline
Member
 
Jun 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post
Not if the price isn't right. You can buy 800GB/1.6TB tape drives but not everyone does it for various reasons.

People do want capacity but the storage device has to meet their needs. If you never have to transport more than 15GB at a time then having 50 really isn't that big of a deal. Hard drives are cheaper than ever and frankly the trend isn't moving towards optical technology. People are backing up to disc and then archiving to tape or optical. 50GB really isn't that much data for archiving. It's great for one offs and the like but even a DAT drive holds 72GB on a cheaper tape.

Right now no one knows who will win this war. I do know it's going to take years to win and the consumer will benefit from this and not even realize it.
Tape is not a factor for consumer PCs, and tape is nearly always more expensive than cheap removable hard drives. Random access on tape sucks. Reliability sucks in spite of manufacturer's reliability claims. Tape will never achieve the economy of scale that optical devices do.

Optical drives come bundled with PCs. Just as CD-ROM drives were replaced with DVD-ROM drives, and then burners, Blu-Ray drives will eventually replace the DVD burners. Blu-Ray burners are here now; HD-DVD ones are still on the horizon somewhere, and with their lower capacity and lack of a price advantage, I don't see people buying them up.

Like you pointed out, it will probably be years before the dust settles completely. But I think the only people buying HD-DVD burners will be people who want to watch HD-DVD content or master their own content. Otherwise why bother with that format on PC?
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2006, 05:20 PM   #10
hmurchison hmurchison is offline
Banned
 
Aug 2004
Seaattle
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bicster View Post
Tape is not a factor for consumer PCs, and tape is nearly always more expensive than cheap removable hard drives. Random access on tape sucks. Reliability sucks in spite of manufacturer's reliability claims. Tape will never achieve the economy of scale that optical devices do.

Optical drives come bundled with PCs. Just as CD-ROM drives were replaced with DVD-ROM drives, and then burners, Blu-Ray drives will eventually replace the DVD burners. Blu-Ray burners are here now; HD-DVD ones are still on the horizon somewhere, and with their lower capacity and lack of a price advantage, I don't see people buying them up.

Like you pointed out, it will probably be years before the dust settles completely. But I think the only people buying HD-DVD burners will be people who want to watch HD-DVD content or master their own content. Otherwise why bother with that format on PC?
Correct only if you're talking about "Consumer" needs. My opinion is consumers are better off backing up disc and then archiving to optical media. Blu-Ray has an advantage there but 30GB vs 50GB probably take a backset to overall cost.

HD DVD has 7 laptops with HD DVD players and Toshiba announced a HD DVD slimline recorder. I wouldn't rule them out to quickly. What you're talking about is theory right now. We need to see who executes better.30GB of data for a consumer is pretty damn big although not as sparkly as 50GB
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2006, 05:27 PM   #11
Bicster Bicster is offline
Member
 
Jun 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post
Correct only if you're talking about "Consumer" needs. My opinion is consumers are better off backing up disc and then archiving to optical media. Blu-Ray has an advantage there but 30GB vs 50GB probably take a backset to overall cost.
Exactly. And I do not see now, or ever, a cost advantage to one format over the other (for the hardware). In fact the same hardware will soon be able to handle both formats, and it will just depend on licensing and firmware to determine whether a particular drive is HD-DVD or Blu-Ray.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2006, 06:38 PM   #12
phloyd phloyd is offline
Blu-ray Guru
 
phloyd's Avatar
 
Dec 2003
California
5
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Knight-Errant View Post
No way will the studios give up their copy protection as it keeps them in business. Piracy is a major problem these days and blu-ray has a more robust copy protection system than DVD.
Boyscouts can get a badge today after learning to 'respect copyright'. It is the way of the world.
---
Content is the key. See the stats
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2006, 06:40 PM   #13
phloyd phloyd is offline
Blu-ray Guru
 
phloyd's Avatar
 
Dec 2003
California
5
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post
Toshiba announced a HD DVD slimline recorder.
We haven't even seen a 'fatline' recorder yet and I have not seen anything indicating we will see one this year.

HD DVD are way behind with respect to recordables. WAY behind.
---
Content is the key. See the stats
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2006, 07:20 PM   #14
hmurchison hmurchison is offline
Banned
 
Aug 2004
Seaattle
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by phloyd View Post
We haven't even seen a 'fatline' recorder yet and I have not seen anything indicating we will see one this year.

HD DVD are way behind with respect to recordables. WAY behind.
HD DVD wasn't conceived as a recording format ala Blu-Ray. However next year the recordables should be available from both platforms in sufficient quantity is my guess.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2006, 07:23 PM   #15
Shadowself Shadowself is offline
Senior Member
 
Shadowself's Avatar
 
Sep 2005
Default Investigate more

Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post
Not if the price isn't right. You can buy 800GB/1.6TB tape drives but not everyone does it for various reasons.
This is a bogus arguement and you know it or should know it. Enterprise class tape drives supporting these data volumes are $3,000 to $6,000 each. This is not viable for 90% of computer users out there. These are enterprise class. Even SOHOs and SMBs are only rarely going to go for these tapes/drives. They are in the realm I deal with -- not 90% of people.

No one in their right mind has ever suggested that 50 GB Blu-ray disks are going to replace very high density tapes for short term or medium duration backup. To do so is pure lunacy. IF any optical media replaces very high density tapes in the not too distant future it might be HVD -- not Blu-ray or HD DVD.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post
People do want capacity but the storage device has to meet their needs. If you never have to transport more than 15GB at a time then having 50 really isn't that big of a deal.
Never is a very, very long time. Data volumes grow, always have, always will. And... what if you have to trasfer 40GB of data or 175GB or 300 GB? These amounts of data are very ammenable to Blu-ray disks.

What about shipping large amounts of data? You don't use the 'net to transmit 100+GB (no matter what fantasy people believe). You also don't use hard drives -- they're too fragile. Right now you use tape and use various materials (mu-metal, etc.) in the packaging to safeguard it. Using higher density optical media is a great move forward for shipping 100+ GB updates to 20 to 30 sites around the world.


Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post
Hard drives are cheaper than ever and frankly the trend isn't moving towards optical technology.
You clearly do not work in very high density archive situations. The push is toward optical. It's just not moving there fast because neither Blu-ray nor HD DVD is ideal yet. Every large archive site of which I know has been carefully tracking the advance of the various optical media and platforms.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post
People are backing up to disc and then archiving to tape or optical. 50GB really isn't that much data for archiving. It's great for one offs and the like but even a DAT drive holds 72GB on a cheaper tape.
Yes people are backing up to disk, but they are also backing up to tape AND optical. It all depends upon the size of the shop and the kind of backup. And, personal opinion, DAT is cheaper in ALL denotations and connotations of the word!


Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post
Right now no one knows who will win this war. I do know it's going to take years to win and the consumer will benefit from this and not even realize it.
Probably the most true statement you've made here. Years is true. Several years is not true. I'd suspect that by 1 Jan 2009 we'll know which format will win. The final skirmishes won't be over and the losing format might secure one or two niches to itself, but a winner will be known. This might also be true well before 1 Jan 2009, but I'm not counting on it.


Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post
Correct only if you're talking about "Consumer" needs. My opinion is consumers are better off backing up disc and then archiving to optical media. Blu-Ray has an advantage there but 30GB vs 50GB probably take a backset to overall cost.

HD DVD has 7 laptops with HD DVD players and Toshiba announced a HD DVD slimline recorder. I wouldn't rule them out to quickly. What you're talking about is theory right now. We need to see who executes better.30GB of data for a consumer is pretty damn big although not as sparkly as 50GB
Since there is no currently shipping HD DVD burner for computers, making any statements about cost is nonsense. While I don't expect it to be true, HD DVD burners could be more expensive than Blu-ray burners. Until one ships we won't know. And until one ships, we won't know its quality or availability. It could easily ship in such low quantities as to not make it a factor except in very, very niche areas for a year or more after it ships. Not all Blu-ray players and burners are of acceptable quality. The same could easily hold for the first HD DVD player.

Also "HD DVD has 7 laptops with HD DVD players" is intentionally misleading. There are not seven different HD DVD players for laptops, so the number is artificially high and misleading.
Be careful when annoying dragons for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup!
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2006, 07:31 PM   #16
hmurchison hmurchison is offline
Banned
 
Aug 2004
Seaattle
Default

Quote:
You clearly do not work in very high density archive situations. The push is toward optical. It's just not moving there fast because neither Blu-ray nor HD DVD is ideal yet. Every large archive site of which I know has been carefully tracking the advance of the various optical media and platforms.
Try "moving at a snails pace" HP just cancelled a majority of its UDO jukeboxes. Here's hoping that HVD or something similar hits the market.

I'm just not sure the typical computer user needs a consistent 25-50GB of backup data. I only need to back up my movie/audio/pictures once and after that the incrementals should be pretty small.

Quote:
Also "HD DVD has 7 laptops with HD DVD players" is intentionally misleading. There are not seven different HD DVD players for laptops, so the number is artificially high and misleading.
That's not what I'm trying to say. I didn't make it clear. HD DVD enabled laptops far outnumber Blu-Ray "because" they are easier and cheaper to manufacture. Sony could deliver the same drive to the companies but can they make the quantity necessary? It's one thing to have a product under glass at a tradeshow and other to have it boxed up and shipping to warehouses.

Last edited by hmurchison; 10-24-2006 at 07:37 PM.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2006, 08:16 PM   #17
PurpleAardvark PurpleAardvark is offline
Active Member
 
Jul 2006
Cross Plains, WI
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post
Try "moving at a snails pace" HP just cancelled a majority of its UDO jukeboxes. Here's hoping that HVD or something similar hits the market.

I'm just not sure the typical computer user needs a consistent 25-50GB of backup data. I only need to back up my movie/audio/pictures once and after that the incrementals should be pretty small.



That's not what I'm trying to say. I didn't make it clear. HD DVD enabled laptops far outnumber Blu-Ray "because" they are easier and cheaper to manufacture. Sony could deliver the same drive to the companies but can they make the quantity necessary? It's one thing to have a product under glass at a tradeshow and other to have it boxed up and shipping to warehouses.
Here is one for you Toshiba uses cheaper components, boards, ect... So yes it is going to be cheaper. However it is going to be more prone to breaking down, like the world famed HD A1 is. I believe sony is trying to put out a QUAILITY product at a reasonable price, not quantity with the sacrifce of quaility. This is why Sony has a better rep. than Toshiba. I could also see the use for 25-50GB storage. It would be nice to keep bussiness records on.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2006, 09:27 PM   #18
phloyd phloyd is offline
Blu-ray Guru
 
phloyd's Avatar
 
Dec 2003
California
5
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post
HD DVD wasn't conceived as a recording format ala Blu-Ray. However next year the recordables should be available from both platforms in sufficient quantity is my guess.
I don't agree. The early AOD (which became HD DVD) touted recording. Though I guess like DVD it was a secondary consideration where Bluray has been recording since the start.
---
Content is the key. See the stats
  Reply With Quote
Reply
Go Back   Blu-ray Forum > Blu-ray > Blu-ray Technology and Future Technology

Similar Threads
thread Forum Thread Starter Replies Last Post
Let say Blu-ray win this war... Blu-ray Technology and Future Technology rickyricardo 7 01-05-2008 03:13 AM
"Blu-ray Fumbles Chance In HDTV DVD War" article Blu-ray Technology and Future Technology HDTV1080P 14 06-15-2007 09:32 PM
Blu-ray Will Win HDTV DVD Price War Blu-ray Technology and Future Technology HDTV1080P 3 05-24-2007 05:14 PM
Tvpredictions.com Video: Blu-ray Will Win HDTV DVD Price Blu-ray Technology and Future Technology Tekman 7 05-22-2007 06:11 PM


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 10:35 AM.