'Brave': Estimate its Opening Box Office Weekend

[celticmoon]

Originally Posted by P@t_Mtl

Changes do not happen overnight, been in many changes (sales and taking over of certain aspect of companies) and it always take minimum 5 years for the changes to start being felt and notice. That is where Pixar is. I am not saying that they will produce horrible stuff now, what I am saying is that Pixar is changing and I will no longer expect the same "great quality story telling" that made them what they were. I expect lot's of sequels, lot's of easy "direct to video" movies and all the other typical stuff Disney as now become. There are lot's of little hints in the trailer that show me that these things are happening and are going to remain. One way to look at it is "the golden years" are behind them. The days of Toy Story and Finding Nemo are behind them and they are moving into asomething else.

But I'm wondering why? Based on Disney having bought out the company, the mediocrity of Cars 2, and the trailer for Brave? I can see these being a reason for some concern, and I won't say what you're saying is not happening, since I obviously don't know that, and you could perhaps be right. But even if Brave is a complete and utter misfire, I personally don't see the above three items to be enough to outright not expect their signature 'great storytelling.' And I certainly don't think any 'hints' that may or may not be in the trailer says anything about anything beyond Brave.

I do admit that I was alarmed by the sequelitis that Pixar seems to be suffering from with the announcement of new Cars and Monsters Inc. movies, especially so soon after Toy Story 3. And I also think Disney's control over the company may be suspect in these moves. But sequels, even if unnecessary, aren't inherently bad. So sequels in and of themselves are no reason to not expect "great quality storytelling" in the future (and I'm not saying the sequels are the reason you feel so, but I'm just saying this as a general statement). Plus, with three originals lined up after Monsters University, I don't think we'll see Pixar going on a sequel frenzy, even if we will begin seeing them with a greater frequency.

And it isn't as if Pixar has a flawless track record until now anyway. The original Cars was a mediocre (for Pixar anyway) vanity project, while A Bug's Life while good, is not particularly remarkable. And I personally don't buy into Finding Nemo and Up in the way that most people seem to, though I certainly enjoy them. Pixar has had their ups and downs until now, and will definitely continue to have them.

Maybe I'm just too much of an optimist. But I just think it's a little early to start being overly worried. Though I guess it could be better to expect less and be pleasantly surprised later.

And as for DTV movies, I don't think Pixar will ever do any. That will still be regulated to DisneyToon studios, as in the past and currently with the Tinker Bell franchise. Disney owns the character rights, so they can pretty much do whatever they please. But so far only the Tinker Bell films and Planes have been/are being produced ever since Lasseter took over, so I think there is definitely a degree of quality control there that wasn't there before. I don't think that just because he OK'ed Planes that he'll suddenly be comfortable with doing DTV movies based on all of the other Pixar characters.

[cvm]

Looks good. I voted $60 million - $69.9 million

[dolphinc]

I am always amazed at how many people will judge a film by a 2 minute preview that hasn't been released yet and then talk about the impending downfall of the company. These films are not targeted at you, there targeted at your kids and just like my kids, your kids will get you to take them to it and they'll love it.

Summertime, no school, no real competition this week = close to 80 mil.

[celticmoon]

Well, to be fair, I think Pixar films try to target all quadrants, even if the primary audience is children. I probably won't be going to see it with any children. But yes, I agree. I just don't think there is enough evidence (yet, at least) to support the doom-and-gloom scenario.

Anyway, I'm really unsure about how this film will fare at the box office. I see $50 million on the low end and $80 million on the high end. But I'd probably put my guess in the $65-70 million range.

[dolphinc]

Originally Posted by celticmoon

Well, to be fair, I think Pixar films try to target all quadrants, even if the primary audience is children. I probably won't be going to see it with any children. But yes, I agree. I just don't think there is enough evidence (yet, at least) to support the doom-and-gloom scenario.

Anyway, I'm really unsure about how this film will fare at the box office. I see $50 million on the low end and $80 million on the high end. But I'd probably put my guess in the $65-70 million range.

I unfortunetly live in the Disney world. My kids are 9 & 5 and we live 1 hr from Orlando so all we have seen in the last 60 days is a bombardment of Brave ads everywhere so maybe I'm just a little brainwashed at the moment.

[Blu Titan]

BOM estimates Brave to open around $65 million. I'll stick to my prediction of $70 million.

Coming off a somewhat quiet weekend, the box office should be revitalized a bit thanks to the release of Disney/Pixar's latest movie. Brave is set to open in a Pixar-record 4,164 locations, 2,790 of which will include 3D shows. Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter will also try to battle its way to solid grosses at 3,106 theaters (2,497 with 3D), but its target demographic is too narrow for it to really break out. Meanwhile, Focus Features is releasing apocalyptic comedy/drama Seeking a Friend for the End of the World at 1,618 venues, while To Rome with Love, Woody Allen's follow-up to Midnight in Paris, launches in a handful of theaters in New York and Los Angeles.

It's impossible to discuss Brave's opening weekend potential without first reviewing the unprecedented history of Pixar Animation Studios. Beginning with Toy Story 2 in 1999, Pixar rattled off an incredible nine-straight $200 million movies, which culminated in 2010 with Toy Story 3 (their highest-grossing movie ever with $415 million). Aside from this incredible commercial success, the studio was also being praised for its artistic accomplishments: through their first 11 movies, Pixar racked up 39 Oscar nominations and 10 wins, including six of the first 10 Best Animated Feature awards. Last June's Cars 2, though, proved that Pixar isn't invincible. Not only did it end the company's $200 million streak, but it was also Pixar's first major creative disappointment—it's the company's only "rotten" movie on Rotten Tomatoes, and its only movie to have an IMDb rating below 7.0.

One dud doesn't kill a brand as strong as Pixar, though: many previews for Brave emphasize that it's from the same studio as Toy Story 3, Up and WALL-E, which is quite the compelling pitch. Otherwise, advertisements have made Brave look like a pretty standard princess movie, with the bow-and-arrow-wielding red-head Merida taking the place of more traditional Disney princesses like Snow White and Belle. That 21st-century approach to the princess story will certainly have strong appeal among younger girls and their mothers, though it's unlikely the movie connects with men in the same way as Pixar movies like Finding Nemo or The Incredibles.

Excluding Ratatouille, which was about rats in Paris, every Pixar movie for the past decade has opened to at least $60 million. Current expectations have Brave earning slightly less ($55-$60 million), though no matter what happens it will become Pixar's 13th-straight movie to open in first place.

For a while, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter was looking like it could be a bomb on par with 2010's Jonah Hex—after all, it's opening at the exact same time, and also features a titular hero fighting off an army of foes hell-bent on conquering 19th century America. While its initial marketing material was a bit muddled, though, the latest round of commercials has been more successful in establishing the conflict between our country's 16th president and an undead army of vampires, and has also showcased some unique action. It's still only going to reach a very specific audience (young males old enough to buy R-rated tickets), but it should get a large portion of that group given Prometheus's steady decline and That's My Boy's disappointing start. Distributor 20th Century Fox is expecting between $15 and $16 million this weekend.

Debuting at only 1,618 theaters, Seeking a Friend for the End of the World is targeting a much more modest opening than Brave or Abraham Lincoln. That's logical, considering the movie's apparent blend of comedy and apocalyptic drama looks like a tough sell. Steve Carell's presence should at least give the movie a bit of a boost: the actor helped similarly-tricky Dan in Real Life open to $11.8 million in 2007, and his brand has held up fine in the years since then. Seeking a Friend's best chance at true success is if it generates strong word-of-mouth coming out of opening weekend, though a 55 percent fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes suggests that might not happen.

Woody Allen's To Rome With Love is opening at five locations—three in New York, two in Los Angeles—this weekend. Last year, Allen's Midnight in Paris had one of the best limited debuts ever with $599,003 at six theaters, and went on to set a new record for the writer-director with $56.8 million. While that's surely given the Allen brand a boost, the success of his movies is almost directly correlated to perceived quality. For example, Allen was hot coming off 2008's Vicky Cristina Barcelona ($23.2 million), but his next movie Whatever Works received a middling 50 percent rating on Rotten Tomatoes and wound up earning just $5.3 million. While To Rome with Love will benefit from a stronger cast and a higher-grossing predecessor, it also doesn't seem to be clicking with critics and, anecdotally, with those who saw the movie at its LA Film Fest premiere last week. Sony Pictures Classics is planning an aggressive expansion that culminates with a July 6 nationwide launch.

Weekend Forecast (June 22-24)
1. Brave - $64.7 million
2. Abraham Lincoln - $17.1 million
3. Madagascar 3 - $15.3 million (-55%)
4. Prometheus - $10.7 million (-48%)
—. Seeking a Friend - $8.2 million

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3467&p=.htm

[Blu Titan]

Top ten estimates for Friday:

1 BRAVE $24,518,000

2 ABRAHAM LINCOLN: VAMPIRE HUNTER $6,300,000

3 MADAGASCAR 3: EUROPE'S MOST WANTED $6,115,000

4 PROMETHEUS: $2,900,000

5 ROCK OF AGES $2,515,000

6 SNOW WHITE AND THE HUNTSMAN $2,500,000

7 THAT'S MY BOY $2,450,000

8 MARVEL'S THE AVENGERS $2,055,000

9 MIB 3 $1,750,000

10 SEEKING A FRIEND FOR THE END OF THE WORLD $1,285,000

http://www.boxoffcemojo.com

[celticmoon]

Early estimates seem to put the Saturday number in the 23 million range. So if that number holds, the weekend number will likely be around 66-68 million.

[Blu Titan]

Brave had a strong opening weekend with an estimated $67 million in bank. MIB 3, Snow White keep pulling in nice numbers and Promethus has done ok with an additional $10 million for the weekend. The Avengers is now only $2 million away from a "titanic" $600 million in domestic box office which will not be challenged for this year's highest mark.

Top ten for the weekend:

1 N Brave BV $66,739,000

2 1 Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted P/DW $20,200,000 - $157,574,000

3 N Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter Fox $16,500,000

4 2 Prometheus Fox $10,000,000 - $108,547,000

5 3 Rock of Ages WB (NL) $8,000,000 - $28,763,000

6 5 Snow White and the Huntsman Uni. $8,000,000 - $137,100,000

7 4 That's My Boy Sony $7,900,000 - $2,607 $28,180,000

8 7 Marvel's The Avengers BV $7,040,000 - $598,300,000

9 6 MIB 3 Sony $5,600,000 - $163,339,000

10 N Seeking a Friend for the End of the World Focus $3,836,000

http://WWW.boxofficemojo.com

[Ernest Rister]

Originally Posted by celticmoon

But I'm wondering why? Based on Disney having bought out the company, the mediocrity of Cars 2, and the trailer for Brave? I can see these being a reason for some concern, and I won't say what you're saying is not happening, since I obviously don't know that, and you could perhaps be right. But even if Brave is a complete and utter misfire, I personally don't see the above three items to be enough to outright not expect their signature 'great storytelling.' And I certainly don't think any 'hints' that may or may not be in the trailer says anything about anything beyond Brave.

I do admit that I was alarmed by the sequelitis that Pixar seems to be suffering from with the announcement of new Cars and Monsters Inc. movies, especially so soon after Toy Story 3. And I also think Disney's control over the company may be suspect in these moves. But sequels, even if unnecessary, aren't inherently bad. So sequels in and of themselves are no reason to not expect "great quality storytelling" in the future (and I'm not saying the sequels are the reason you feel so, but I'm just saying this as a general statement). Plus, with three originals lined up after Monsters University, I don't think we'll see Pixar going on a sequel frenzy, even if we will begin seeing them with a greater frequency.

And it isn't as if Pixar has a flawless track record until now anyway. The original Cars was a mediocre (for Pixar anyway) vanity project, while A Bug's Life while good, is not particularly remarkable. And I personally don't buy into Finding Nemo and Up in the way that most people seem to, though I certainly enjoy them. Pixar has had their ups and downs until now, and will definitely continue to have them.

Maybe I'm just too much of an optimist. But I just think it's a little early to start being overly worried. Though I guess it could be better to expect less and be pleasantly surprised later.

And as for DTV movies, I don't think Pixar will ever do any. That will still be regulated to DisneyToon studios, as in the past and currently with the Tinker Bell franchise. Disney owns the character rights, so they can pretty much do whatever they please. But so far only the Tinker Bell films and Planes have been/are being produced ever since Lasseter took over, so I think there is definitely a degree of quality control there that wasn't there before. I don't think that just because he OK'ed Planes that he'll suddenly be comfortable with doing DTV movies based on all of the other Pixar characters.

Let's see...Eisner alienates Pixar, which, among other things, plays into a shareholder rebellion against his stewardship. Eisner is forced to resign. The first thing his successor does is open new negotiations with Pixar. Disney gives Pixar 9 billion dollars so that they never have to worry about losing PIXAR again, Disney agrees to allow John Lasseter - who was fired by Eisner and Katzenberg, who was told by Katzenberg that there was no future in computer animation - to become Chief Creative Officer overseeing Disney's feature animation department AND the theme parks (resulting in huge re-investments in Disneyland and Disney World), PIXAR is allowed to retain it's unqie culture, John radically turns the ship around at DFA, and you haven't even seen the real fruit of what's been planted yet...and you think Lasseter is being manipulated by Disney? He *IS* Disney, and regardless of the shingle on the door, he always has been. He just couldn't work under Eisner and Katzenberg.

Was CARS 2 a cash-grab? Well, sometimes you make something mainstream and commercial to allow yourself to continue making riskier films. You have to be responsible, and for all the people who dog on CARS (I loved it), the film brought in a dumptruck of revenue to Disney from merchandisiing. CARS 2, by branching out into foreign lands, obviously was an attempt to extend the merchandising to foreign territories. And you know what? CARS 2 did very well. These films - and the Monsters Inc. sequel - allow for the original and more quirky and experimental films. Walt made the beloved Dumbo because he spent a fortune making Fantasia and Pinocchio, and needed revenue to finish Bambi.

Now, If Pixar turned around and did nothing but sequels and retreads, and allowed standards to fall apart on the cheap, then you might have a point. But from where I sit, CARS 2 made a hat ton of money, and that's going to pay for BRAVE, THE GOOD DINOSAUR and the "Human Brain" entry in development, and whatever comes next.

[Ernest Rister]

Originally Posted by Blu Titan

Brave had a strong opening weekend with an estimated $67 million in bank. MIB 3, Snow White keep pulling in nice numbers and Promethus has done ok with an additional $10 million for the weekend. The Avengers is now only $2 million away from a "titanic" $600 million in domestic box office which will not be challenged for this year's highest mark.

Top ten for the weekend:

1 N Brave BV $66,739,000

2 1 Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted P/DW $20,200,000 - $157,574,000

3 N Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter Fox $16,500,000

4 2 Prometheus Fox $10,000,000 - $108,547,000

5 3 Rock of Ages WB (NL) $8,000,000 - $28,763,000

6 5 Snow White and the Huntsman Uni. $8,000,000 - $137,100,000

7 4 That's My Boy Sony $7,900,000 - $2,607 $28,180,000

8 7 Marvel's The Avengers BV $7,040,000 - $598,300,000

9 6 MIB 3 Sony $5,600,000 - $163,339,000

10 N Seeking a Friend for the End of the World Focus $3,836,000

http://WWW.boxofficemojo.com

Do you think Sandler jumped the shark with that cross-dressing movie from last year? If anything, "That's My Boy" plays into all his strengths, but nobody's going to see it. Has to be crushing for Sandberg, who just left his day job at SNL.

[chris_sc77]

Originally Posted by Ernest Rister

Do you think Sandler jumped the shark with that cross-dressing movie from last year? If anything, "That's My Boy" plays into all his strengths, but nobody's going to see it. Has to be crushing for Sandberg, who just left his day job at SNL.

That;s my Boy was definitely one of Sandler's funniest films in the past decade.
And IMO it was a much better wedding comedy than Bridesmaids, Wedding Crashers, Hangover 1/2, etc. Not every joke hit the mark of course and some of the actors (or should I say Sandler's friends) were not particularly good at delivering their lines but what the hell it was pretty funny overall.
Of course it isn't very subtle in the humor but what cn you expect. Sadly I doubt Sandler will do much more R-rated fare. I cannot stand Samberg at all and think he is one of the least appealing SNl cast members ever but he didnt really bother me too much.

[Taipan]

Originally Posted by Taipan

Brave~ 66M

Well, it looks like I actually got one right....

It's odd to quote yourself.

[Foggy]

Originally Posted by Taipan

Well, it looks like I actually got one right....

It's odd to quote yourself.

Pffft, if this was "The Price is Right" you would of gone home with nothing!

[blurayjunkie]

I had a odd feeling this movie would not do as well as other pixar movies, looks like I was right.

[fatediesel]

Originally Posted by blurayjunkie

I had a odd feeling this movie would not do as well as other pixar movies, looks like I was right.

Actually Brave's opening weekend was on par with most of Pixar's movies. With the exception of Toy Story 3 no Pixar movie has had an opening weekend higher than $70.5 million, and 7 of Pixar's 9 previous movies had an opening weekend between $60 million and $70.5 million, with the exceptions being Toy Story 3's $110 million and Ratatouille's $47 million.

[Walts Ghost]

Originally Posted by fatediesel

Actually Brave's opening weekend was on par with most of Pixar's movies. With the exception of Toy Story 3 no Pixar movie has had an opening weekend higher than $70.5 million, and 7 of Pixar's 9 previous movies had an opening weekend between $60 million and $70.5 million, with the exceptions being Toy Story 3's $110 million and Ratatouille's $47 million.

Exactly. Not to mention this is Pixar's 13th opening weekend at #1 for every movie they've released. That's an awesome track record. It has nothing to do with it "not being as good as their other movies."

[celticmoon]

Early estimates are putting it's Monday number at $9 million, which is quite good and indicates that it will probably have pretty good legs.

By comparison, Cars 2, which had a similar opening weekend (also at $66 million), dropped to around $7 million on its first Monday. Unless somehow it really, really tanks in the next week, it should be able to pass $200 million pretty easily, which would put it ahead of A Bug's Life ($163 million), Cars 2 ($191 million), Toy Story ($192 million), and Ratatouille ($206 million).

Depending on how well things go, $250 million is probably also in play, which means it could pass up WALL-E ($224 million), Cars ($244 million), and Toy Story ($246 million), and perhaps even Monsters, Inc. ($256 million) and The Incredibles ($261 million). My current guess is that it has a good shot of landing somewhere in the middle of that group of films.

Of course, accounting for 3D and ticket price inflation, Brave may not be quite as successful as a lot of these films (though it will easily sell more tickets than last year's Cars 2). But honestly, that seems to be more of a problem with animation in general since last year or so. I personally think that there are now just so many successful animation studios, that admissions are beginning to be split up among them. I mean, there's WDAS, Pixar, DreamWorks, Blue Sky, Sony, and now Illumination has come out of virtually nowhere and are blowing the competition out of the water. Plus, there are also the likes of Laika and Aardman (in partnership now with Sony), and even ILM came out with their own film with Rango last year. Plus, the studios generally seem to be increasing the frequency of their output. I know it still isn't as if an animated film is being released every week, but the animated blockbuster just doesn't seem to be the the event that it once may have been.

[Taipan]

Originally Posted by Foggy

Pffft, if this was "The Price is Right" you would of gone home with nothing!

Yeah, I did miss the extra 739,00.