2011-2012 Home Media Research Weekly Sales (Discussion Thread)

[blueshadow | Kosty]

Projections: ‘Dark of the Moon’ Casts Its Shadow WE 10/02/11


3 Oct, 2011
By: John Latchem




The third film in Paramount’s hugely successful “Transformers” franchise, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, should have no trouble securing the top spot on the sales charts, despite a Friday release date that gives it less time on shelves during its first-week survey period. The week is otherwise absent of any major releases other than catalog or TV DVD fare.

That limited shelf time probably will keep Dark of the Moon from being the top rental until at least its second week. If so, then Thor should top the rental chart for a third consecutive week.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/res...s-shadow-25222

[blueshadow | Kosty]

Freaky Fridays

3 Oct, 2011
By: Chris Tribbey


Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Studios are releasing more titles on Friday this year


Street date Tuesday has a long tradition in the home video industry, in part to help drive traffic to retail on a slow day.

Studios occasionally have broken that practice by releasing a title on another weekday — usually a Friday — to make it stand out from the crowd, but 2011 has seen a higher than usual amount of Friday releases, most recently with Paramount’s Transformers: Dark of the Moon (Sept. 30).

Looking at the results of Friday releases so far this year, it’s a strategy — whether due to content quality, collapsing windows or a lower emphasis on brick-and-mortar retail — that works.

Of the Friday releases so far this year — Megamind, The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 1, Justin Bieber: Never Say Never, Rango, Arthur, X-Men: First Class and Star Wars: The Complete Saga — all debuted at No. 1 on the sales charts, with the exception of Narnia (No. 4),

Arthur (No. 7) and Star Wars (No. 3). Potter remained on top for another two weeks, while Rango stayed No. 1 through its second.

“I like to think it’s brilliant marketing and strategy,” laughed Scott Guthrie, EVP of Paramount Home Entertainment, which chose Friday to release the latest “Transformers” installment. “I think all the studios are figuring out what their competitive edge can be. A three-day weekend can be just as important as a five- [to] six-day window, if all the elements are in place.

“I don’t think you’ll see any one date,” he said of the future. “We won’t all go to Friday, or all back to Tuesday.”

Consumers have at least four more Friday releases to look forward to this year: Green Lantern (Oct. 14), Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 2 (Nov. 11), The Smurfs (Dec. 2) and Friends With Benefits (Dec. 2).

“I do think this is the most I’ve ever seen,” said Bill Hunt, editor of TheDigitalBits.com. “To me, a Friday date has always made a lot of sense. When you get your favorite film on Blu-ray, the first thing you want to do is take it home and watch it right away.”

The family appeal of content likely plays a part in Friday releases, according to Russ Crupnick, entertainment industry analyst with The NPD Group.

“That audience, and their parents, are often beginning to think about entertainment later in the week, and using social media and related discovery tools — like Flixster — to figure out what to watch as the work/school weekends,” he said. “It could be that ‘bang’ on Friday gives home video a better chance of competing with all the other entertainment options and creates some news value.”

Guthrie said Paramount looks at many factors when determining a Friday release, including competing releases, theatrical releases, broadcast TV schedules, and even video games releases.

Consumer purchase intent is probably one of the most important pieces, he said.

Other studios also target Friday releases to elevate a title above the clutter of entertainment options.

“We went with a Friday street date [for X-Men: First Class], not only because it’s a competitive time of year and we wanted it to stand out, but because [this title] deserves that special attention,” Simon Swart, EVP and GM of 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment, said when that title was released Sept. 9.

The thinking behind a Friday street date involves a lot more than hype, said Scott Hettrick, publisher and editor-in-chief of 3DHollywood.net. It signifies the changing nature of the retail landscape. Tuesday releases used to ensure that even the smallest mom-and-pop stores got titles in time to mark, repackage and shelve titles by the weekends. Now the mom-and-pops — and brick-and-mortar in general — aren’t as big a section of the marketplace, leaving the studios less incentive to worry about what a Friday street date does to retail.

“The dynamics of the marketplace have changed so dramatically in the last two decades that those issues are not as critical or relevant anymore,” Hettrick said. “And it’s easier for studios to create more consumer excitement around a weekend release.”

Jimmie Townsend, president of Washington, D.C.’s Capitol Video Sales — a 30-year mainstay in the video business before it shuttered in September — concurred that a Friday street date plays havoc with smaller retailers.

“With a Friday delivery, assuming you get it on Thursday, it makes it a lot more difficult, especially if you’re dealing with central receiving and need to get product out to multiple stores,” he said.

Guthrie acknowledged the difficulties retailers could face with a Friday street date, including the effect on advertising and labor schedules. However, retailers are able to overcome these issues, he said.

“We have to work with our brick-and-mortars on a Friday release,” Guthrie said. “Over the last seven to 10 years, they’ve developed a business model where their labor force [is scheduled] to prep Monday night for a Tuesday title. A Friday release can impact labor costs, and we get in front of it by working with retailers."

For both studios and retailers, Friday street dates offer yet another challenge: forecasting results. Models have been based on a five-day sales window for that first week for years. Since the historical data is slim, it is hard to predict whether a strong Friday showing for a new title will mean strong sales for the entire weekend, Guthrie noted.

A strong Friday “doesn’t mean you’ll have a great Sunday,” he said.

John Latchem contributed to this report.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/ret...-fridays-25229

[blueshadow | Kosty]

Narrative brought down for reference of charts below


Comparison of The-Numbers Blu-ray Top 10 List vs Nielsen Videoscan first alert (units)



Here is a comparison of the variance between the The-Numbers data and the Home Media Magazine reported Nielsen Videoscan first alert Top 20 Sellers chart and Blu-ray Top 20 chart data. Its concentrating on the unit estimates not the estimated revenues.

The unit estimates from The-Numbers seems to be extremely consistent with the Nielsen Videoscan first alert report.

Data is from August and September 2011 as August 7 seems to be the start of the Walmart sales data in the Nielsen Videoscan first alert report.

The comparison points are the calculated Blu-ray marketshare and index numbers based on the The-Numbers Blu-ray Top 10 and the DVD Top 30 charts and the reported Nielsen Videoscan figures.

For every week except 09/18/11 the two databases are extremely close within 1% or less for the calculated Blu-ray vs DVD marketshare and the Blu-ray index numbers and the total title Top 20 Sellers index numbers with some random tiny variations. Which is consistent with both data base and estimates being accurate at least in terms of units for both DVD and Blu-ray.

The only exception is for the last week of Sep 18 where it seems that for some reason The-Numbers switched to using exactly the same Blu-ray index numbers as the Nielsen Videoscan first alert report as they match exactly and the calculated Blu-ray marketshare numbers for The-Numbers were significantly lower than the Nielsen Videoscan report. Its like their estimate for the leading Blu-ray title Thor was actually low compared to the DVD figures and depressed their estimates for Blu-ray units for the week.

It almost looks like they may have decided in that last week that the Nielsen Videoscan first alert index numbers being a census of point of sale transactions now including Walmart is the best way to go forward fro the index numbers for Blu-ray units. Or maybe their were some additional special considerations for that week.

But since they have been doing DVD weekly estimates since 2006 and their new Blu-ray estimates are very consistent with the DVD data at least in terms with the calculated marketshare and Top 20 Sellers and Blu-ray Top 10 lists it provides some evidence that The-Numbers data is scaled accurately and consistent with the Nielsen Videoscan first alert report which has the same Monday through Sunday reporting period at least in terms of units sold.

The estimated revenues per title of course is still a different story but we can further look at that based on the units reported and the revenue estimates. Plus we have the issue of the comparison with the slightly different HMM revenue report that uses the preceding Sunday in the data in their Sun-Sat revenue reporting period vs The-Numbers and Nielsen's Mon-Sun week.


But it seems the The-Numbers reported unit sales are very very consistent with the weekly Nielsen Videoscan first alert report ever since the Nielsen Videoscan data started including Walmart in August 2011.


TN BD = The-Numbers Blu-ray units
TN DVD = The-Numbers DVD units
TN BD+DVD = The-Numbers Blu-ray and DVD units

NV BD% = reported Nielsen Videoscan Blu-ray unit marketshare
TN BD% = calculated The-Numbers Blu-ray unit marketshare
delta = =variation between the two NV BD% - TN BD%


NV BD = reported Nielsen Videoscan Blu-ray index number off Blu-ray Top 20 chart
TN BD = calculated The-Number Blu-ray index number based off leading Blu-ray title
delta = =variation between the two NV BD - TN BD


NV OD = reported Nielsen Videoscan index number off Top 20 Sellers chart DVD+BD
TN OD = calculated The-Number index number based off leading DVD + Blu-ray title
delta = =variation between the two NV OD - TN OD












Again this last week seems to use exactly the Nielsen Videoscan Blu-ray index numbers and the Blu-ray marketshare and Blu-ray units seem to be estimated low probably because they look to be calculated off a low estimate of Blu-ray units for the leading Blu-ray title of Thor.

Star Wars seems to be estimated high and perhaps the low estimates there were a result of not wanting the Star Wars units to be even higher and be too controversial. It will be interesting to see the next week data for the week ending 9/25/11 from The-Numbers to see if any adjustment is made.

[blueshadow | Kosty]

Comparison of The-Numbers Blu-ray Top 10 List vs Nielsen Videoscan first alert (units)



Here is a comparison of the variance between the The-Numbers data and the Home Media Magazine reported Nielsen Videoscan first alert Top 20 Sellers chart and Blu-ray Top 20 chart data. Its concentrating on the unit estimates not the estimated revenues.

The unit estimates from The-Numbers seems to be extremely consistent with the Nielsen Videoscan first alert report.

Data is from May 1 through September 2011 and is the complete set of the Top 10 Blu-ray lists from The-Numbers since they started publishing the Blu-ray unit and revenue information. .

August 7 seems to be the start of the Walmart sales data in the Nielsen Videoscan first alert report.

The comparison points are the calculated Blu-ray marketshare and index numbers based on the The-Numbers Blu-ray Top 10 and the DVD Top 30 charts and the reported Nielsen Videoscan figures.




TN BD = The-Numbers Blu-ray units
TN DVD = The-Numbers DVD units
TN BD+DVD = The-Numbers Blu-ray and DVD units

NV BD% = reported Nielsen Videoscan Blu-ray unit marketshare
TN BD% = calculated The-Numbers Blu-ray unit marketshare
delta = =variation between the two NV BD% - TN BD%


NV BD = reported Nielsen Videoscan Blu-ray index number off Blu-ray Top 20 chart
TN BD = calculated The-Number Blu-ray index number based off leading Blu-ray title
delta = =variation between the two NV BD - TN BD


NV OD = reported Nielsen Videoscan index number off Top 20 Sellers chart DVD+BD
TN OD = calculated The-Number index number based off leading DVD + Blu-ray title
delta = =variation between the two NV OD - TN OD

[blueshadow | Kosty]

Here is a comparison of the difference in the reported Blu-ray index numbers for each title for each week from the Home Media Magazine Nielsen Videoscan first alert Top 20 Blu-ray Disc chart and the calculated Blu-ray index numbers using the published data off The-Numbers Blu-ray Top 10 list for units.

As you can clearly see, its pretty random in variation but from the charts above and the graphs below the two reports are very close in magnitude and extremely consistent for most weeks.

That seems to imply that for all the weeks except the last one the data was consistent and developed independently or at least was independently modified to account for Walmart sales. It also tends to support the validity of the data set as its extremely consistent with the Nielsen Videoscan first alert report.

The last week of 09/18/11 seems to be a switch to using the Nielsen Videoscan Blu-ray index numbers fro some reason or a recognition that they are now using Walmart sales data in the Nielsen Videoscan data.

[blueshadow | Kosty]

No narrative yet from the The-Numbers but here is their DVD estimates for 9/25/11

[Bk_Tan]

How do you explain the constant downward revisions made by thenumbers week after week?

X-Men First Class will be hovering between 1m to 1.1m for the next few weeks because the previous weeks' numbers will keep dropping for no reason.

[blueshadow | Kosty]

Originally Posted by Bk_Tan

How do you explain the constant downward revisions made by thenumbers week after week?

X-Men First Class will be hovering between 1m to 1.1m for the next few weeks because the previous weeks' numbers will keep dropping for no reason.

The-Numbers does not revise the previous weeks numbers at all.

Sometimes that affects the actual estimates in subsequent weeks after release as they try most of all to keep the cumulative totals accurate so sometimes the weeks after release revenue numbers are twisted a bit to fit the best information cumulative sales data. But they never revise what they publish?

Can you give an example? Are you confusing the weeks after release numbers being smaller than the previous week or release week with revisions?

There are current week units and revenue columns and cumulative units and cumulative revenues generated since release. Are you perhaps confusing the two?

[Bishop_99]

I'm eagerly awaiting for HMM's BD revenue estimate for the Bridesmaid/ Star Wars (remainder) week.... Hopefully it'll be available tonight.

[blueshadow | Kosty]

Originally Posted by Bishop_99

I'm eagerly awaiting for HMM's BD revenue estimate for the Bridesmaid/ Star Wars (remainder) week.... Hopefully it'll be available tonight.

Me too.

I also am very curious on the The-Numbers Blu-ray Top 10 list as well.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by Bishop_99

I'm eagerly awaiting for HMM's BD revenue estimate for the Bridesmaid/ Star Wars (remainder) week.... Hopefully it'll be available tonight.

same here

[blueshadow | Kosty]

Here's a summary of the comparisons between the TN and NV units reporting I created.

• The TN and NV Blu-ray index numbers match. Where they differ the variations are random.
  
  
• The TN and NV Blu-ray and DVD ratios and Blu-ray unit marketshares match. So the TN Blu-ray data is scaled the same magnitude as the historical DVD data since 2006.
  
  
• Even if the Blu-ray or DVD magnitudes are off the historical trending and ratios between titles is useful.
  
  
• Its useful to have a independent third party source like TN scale the 100.00 index numbers into real world numbers with the same consistent methodology even if the magnitude is questioned.
  
  
• There is no question the unit sale magnitudes are order of magnitude correct and the main issue here seems to be that they are questioned in magnitude from people that have been consistently skeptical and pessimistic on Blu-ray for years and seem to have a strong bias against any good news for Blu-ray.
  
  
• Its a separate issue on the validity of the TN unit estimates and the revenue estimates but the match between the ratios of not only Blu-ray but also plus DVD in the TN and NV reports indicate that the Blu-ray estimates are scaled the same as the DVD data published since 2006 from TN.
  
  
• The TN and NV Blu-ray marketshare variations before NV started including Walmart data is clear before and after the switch and is varied exactly as predicted with the TN showing a lower Blu-ray marketshare than the NV data without Walmart.
  
  
• The comparison between the two databases before the Star Wars week show that the Top 10 Blu-ray revenues are 78% of the reported HMM weekly revenues for the same period. That's consistent with industry expectations I have stated many times saying that Blu-ray is heavily concentrated now in new release sales with new release units being around 66% of Blu-ray unit sales and 80% of revenues. Using 85% in that calculation is flawed as the Star Wars week swings it 7% in a single week for its unusual circumstances.
  
  
• In the future, its not only likely that the The-Numbers data will continue to be close in Blu-ray ratios and index numbers, but since the openly distributed Nielsen Videoscan first alert unit numbers that others see but are converted to index numbers for publication is readily available as a sanity check, its extremely likely that the The-Numbers release week and cumulative totals will be more accurate over time as well.
  
  
• The difference in the different reporting periods is significant for major new releases especially for Friday releases as that advertised Sunday has large volumes. It tends to reconcile in subsequent weeks and just cannot be hand waved away.
  
  
• The expectations that the two or three different data bases are going to perfectly match in every detailed way you slice and compare and multiply the parts is just unrealistic and flawed.
  
  
• Much of the HMM and TN variations can be easily explained by a reasonable 5% or 10% error in the estimates for revenues or units and its a difference of magnitude not trends or internal consistency.
  
  
• It just seems that the expectations that the data from different sources would perfectly match is a poor assumption. Any variation that can be explained by a 5% or 10% error still indicates that the estimates are still reasonably accurate.
  
  
  see the above posts for the supporting data and more detailed specifics.

[blueshadow | Kosty]

Week ending 9/25/11

No narratives yet.

[blueshadow | Kosty]

The consistency between the The-Numbers unit data for DVD and Blu-ray and the weekly Nielsen Videoscan first alert report for the week ending 9/25/11 is again extremely high. Its within a percent variance with random variations.

The Blu-ray index numbers, the DVD+BD index numbers, and the Blu-ray/(DVD+Blu-ray) Blu-ray unit marketshare numbers are all almost identical but not quite as there is some tiny variations.

That implies that the Blu-ray numbers are scaled to the same magnitude of the DVD numbers and the relative relationships and ratios this week between the reported DVD and reported Blu-ray units is the same in the The-Numbers report and the Nielsen Videoscan first alert report.

That implies the absolute magnitudes are order of magnitude accurate as well.

[Bishop_99]

Very impressive for Bridesmaids. I would have figured somewhere around 300,000 but not close to 600,000 ... Excellent numbers for Star Wars as well.

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by Bishop_99

Very impressive for Bridesmaids. I would have figured somewhere around 300,000 but not close to 600,000 ... Excellent numbers for Star Wars as well.

The market has definitely expanded beyond genre limitations. This is beyond obvious and the trend has been underway since last year.

The only area still lacking, and mostly because of lack of top content in comparison with DVD, is music releases.

Pro-B

[blueshadow | Kosty]

Week ending 10/02/11



The Friday release of Transformers: Dark of the Moon does 64% Blu-ray unit marketshare.

Transformers’ Conquers Sales and Rental Charts


5 Oct, 2011
By: Thomas K. Arnold


Transformers: Dark of the Moon

As expected, Transformers: Dark of the Moon stormed to the top of the national home video charts its first week in stores, scoring a sweep of the sales and rental charts for the week ended Oct. 2.

The Paramount Home Entertainment release, the fourth summer theatrical tentpole now on disc, easily topped the Nielsen VideoScan First Alert and dedicated Blu-ray Disc sales charts, bumping the previous week’s top seller, Universal Studios’ Bridesmaids, to No. 2.

Demand for Transformers: Dark of the Moon was so great that two prior installments in the franchise reappeared among the top 20 sellers. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen reappeared at No. 10, while the original Transformers returned to the chart at No. 13.

Dark of the Moon generated 64% of its sales from Blu-ray Disc.

Dark of the Moon also topped Home Media Magazine’s rental chart for the week, as Paramount makes its titles available to all retail channels on the same day — in contrast to several other studios, which delay by a month shipping new releases to rental leaders Netflix and Redbox in an attempt to boost sales to consumers.

On the rental chart, Dark of the Moon knocked another Paramount title, Thor, out of first place and into the No. 2 spot.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/res...l-charts-25268




Top 20 Sellers for the Week Ended 10/02/11

Top 20 Rentals for the Week Ended 10/02/11

Top 20 Selling Blu-ray Discs for the Week Ended 10/02/11

[blueshadow | Kosty]

Argh.

Just got word from HMM that their normal routine for getting the sales data for the week ending 9/24/11 (Bridesmaids first full week of Star Wars etc) has been delayed from the source so its going to be a little later in coming to us this week.

We may not get that HMM revenue chart until next week and they are probably hoping they can still manage to fit it in the next issue before the print deadline as well.

Be prepared to not see that week ending 9/24/11 revenue pie chart from HMM until next week.

The suspense will continue for a while yet it seems.

[blueshadow | Kosty]

Its probably going to be a little bit before I can create and post up the Top 20 Sellers and Top 20 Blu-ray chart tonight.

But based on Transformers DOTM 64.38% Blu-ray unit market share and its 100.00 index next to the next highest title's 23.46 about one fifth the volume, its going to be a large column to the left of the chart with two thirds of it blue with a typical pattern for a blockbuster release.

The Top 20 Sellers Blu-ray unit marketshare percentage is also going to be very hig

[blueshadow | Kosty]

OMG

Breaking news Steve Jobs has just died at the age of 56.

That will be a big topic of conversation the next few days.

Wow

RIP to a visionary that changed the world in a positive way.

Apple's Steve Jobs Dies, 56
TWICE Staff -- TWICE, 10/5/2011



Apple's Steve Jobs at recent press conference. (photo from the San Jose Mercury News)


Cupertino, Calif. - Steve Jobs, Apple founder and industry visionary, has died.

He was 56.

Apple released the news Wednesday evening. The company website carried the following message.

"Apple has lost a visionary and creative genius, and the world has lost an amazing human being. Those of us who have been fortunate enough to know and work with Steve have lost a dear friend and an inspiring mentor. Steve leaves behind a company that only he could have built, and his spirit will forever be the foundation of Apple."

Jobs had resigned as Apple CEO on Aug. 24, citing his inability to continue with his duties. He was replaced by Tim Cook, but Jobs retained his position as Apple's chairman of the board.

Jobs had taken previous health-related sabbaticals and had suffered from pancreatic cancer. A direct cause of death was not announced.

http://www.twice.com/article/474850-...bs_Dies_56.php