What will HMM report as BD revenues for Sun-Sat WE 11/13/11? Harry Potter 7.2

[blueshadow | Kosty]

Week ending Sunday 11/13/11 Poll

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II Release Week

Revenue Guess Only - Comments on Marketshare welcome

[Bishop_99]

With this being a Friday release and a Harry Potter film, it throws in more uncertainty for me. The Potter films have grown with Blu-ray, but they've been on the lower end when compared to the other heavy hitters. But I think that is almost completely irrelevant at this point and this Potter film shouldn't have any problem going over the 60% BD share mark. It's also the highest grossing film of the year, but the week will be limited by it's 2 day window. So I'll take a guess and go with the $60 - $69 million option. Not a whole lot to go on because this film, and others, may behave differently.

[blueshadow | Kosty]

missed the closing date but I'm going with the $90=$99 million range

[blueshadow | Kosty]

Even though the poll is closed we do not have the results yet so if anyone else wants to guess on Harry Potter week go ahead. A bonus prize for the week will be awarded for any new voters that get it right before we get the results from HMM.

I'm guessing $90-$99 million.

[Bishop_99]

You are probably right on your guess, I completely underestimated what that Harry Potter movie was capable of.

[blueshadow | Kosty]

My guess was way too optimistic.

You were much closer than me.

I was partially basing my guess on the The-Numbers estimate but the HMM revenue numbers for the Sun-Sat week and The-Numbers Blu-ray Top 10 list are really starting to really diverge. We know that HMM is running lower than DEG by about 6% now and can assume that The-Numbers is higher than DEG but its hard to say how each will compare to DEG by the end of the year.

[Bishop_99]

I was ready to increase my guess as soon as I saw the data posted by The-numbers, as it only made sense. So it was a bit surprising to see that the actual revenue data for the week was below my initial guess.

If I remember correctly, the 3 day sales data the The-Numbers posted for the first week sales of the Star Wars Blu-ray, was very similar to the official data released by Fox for the 7 day sales. It seems as if they just used that data and placed it into that weeks numbers. If I'm correct on that, do you think it's possible that The-Numbers got word on what the first week 7 day sales for Harry Potter were and used that as their sales data for last week? It just seems there is a very big difference between what The-Numbers reported for the first three days sales of Harry Potter and the two corresponding revenue weeks released by HMM.

[blueshadow | Kosty]

It is what it is. Clearly HMM accounted for more of the Harry Potter sales in the subsequent week than I guessed would happen. Clearly my guess for the week was high but that's hardly a big deal to me.

But the two week total there for 11/12 and 11/19 was $93.49 M and Harry Potter 7.2 was the only major release for Blu-ray in that entire period so it generated most of the new release revenues during that period.

My guess was high. I was partially looking at the The-Numbers data for the week and that is increasingly showing variance from the HMM Sun-Sat revenue estimates. We know the DEG data was 6.5% higher than HMM so its probable that HMM is still a bit low.

We also had poor releases in the following week ending 11/19/11 the lowest TBO since August so no other releases in the following week contributed much at all to the Blu-ray revenues there. Since there were $39.27 M in BD revenues there that were including the first Sunday third release day sales of the Friday POTC4 week its likely that HMM accounted for more of the Blu-ray sales for POTC4 in the subsequent second week of Sun-Sat sales as the two weeks together with only POTC4 as a major release.

Larry Crowne in the week ending 11/19/11 was a lame bust at $35 M and as a romantic comedy was a poor genre match for Blu-ray with 18% BD share and only 4% of the second week Harry Potter sales in 14th place on the Top 20 Sellers chart. The following week TBO was down over 88% yet HMM is reporting that BD still was slightly up for the week.

Larry Crowne did not even place on the top 20 Blu-ray chart for 11/20/11 so almost all of the second week new release sales for 11/20/11 were Harry Potter sales as well.

So looking at it the two days of Friday and Saturday sales of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 2 were responsible for the $54.22 M in the first week and most of the $39.27 in the second week that included the first Sunday of sales. That's over $93 M in sales in those two weeks mostly being created by the weekend release of Harry Potter since there really was not a major Blu-ray release at all in the second following week of that two week set.

Its pretty expected that the second week was going to be going to be much lower since the TBO was down over 88% from last year as this year had no $100 M releases and last year had two (A Christmas Carol and The Last Airbender) so the following second week of Harry Potter covered that TBO disparity in the week before Black Friday.

Now we get into the Black Friday through Christmas higher volume sales season where we get to see how much the increased size of the Blu-ray ownership base has over the higher box office power from last year.

[blueshadow | Kosty]

We really are counting only two days of sales for the Friday release of Harry Potter here in the Sun-Sat HMM revenue period. So much of that $54 M in Blu-ray sales for that week occurred in two days as the only Tuesday new releases were a $30 M romantic comedy The Change Up and a DTV Barbie release. Harry Potter was released on Friday.

The TBO for the following week was down 88% yet Blu-ray for 11/19 was about even.

So clearly more of the Harry Potter weekend sales were accounted for in that 11/19 following week.

Blu-ray was up +68.3% for the week and that's pretty close to the +68% TBO for 11/13/11.

Blu-ray was also up 0.5% for the following week of 11/19/11 despite the TBO being down -88% negative for the next week so clearly the Sunday and second week sales for Harry Potter were accounted for in that period.

$40 M for Blu-ray in the next week in a week with -88% TBO and a $30 M romantic comedy that did not even place on the BD charts as the only new release isn't that bad so clearly some of the Harry Potter weekend revenues were showing up there.

That's the lowest TBO for a week since mid August in the dead of summer, its hard to say $39.22 M is bad there.

Also $54 to $39 M with Harry Potter 7.2 being the only major release shows far less week one to week two attrition than we have usually seen for new releases so its clear that there were substantial Sunday sales there that fell into the second week.

[Bishop_99]

Yeah, that breakdown makes sense and puts it into perspective.I guess that my expectations went a bit high once I saw the information posted by The-Numbers.

[blueshadow | Kosty]

Originally Posted by Bishop_99

Yeah, that breakdown makes sense and puts it into perspective.I guess that my expectations went a bit high once I saw the information posted by The-Numbers.

I think HMM is tracking low right now anyway but the Sun-Sat week makes guess rather tough , especially for Friday releases.