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Well you get the idea behind that theory
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I don't think it is a theory, I don't think anyone believes that 6 is the magic number that links any two people on Earth.
As for MS thing
1) not everyone is on MS live (by definition linking people in remote different areas like someone that lived his whole life in an igloo in the far north or tribe-man in the forests of the Amazon or in Africa...) would be the hardest and would not show up in their test (since they are not likely to use PCs and PM)
2)do you only PM/send letters to people you know? (let's face it by their assumption if you send an email or letter or PM to the president by that definition you have 1 degree of separation
3) do you PM contact everyone you know every month? you could end up with 10 degrees of separation on a relative that you just did not PM that month.
On a separate note, now this is not aimed at MS directly since I am sure it would be as true for emails and PMs using other tools, does anyone else think it is scary that MS could (and did) gather and analyse your sphere of friendship.