This article says that spending will be down, but a greater percentage of holiday shopping will go to HD goods.
"Consumers may also be looking for stuff to watch on that new LCD TV. This will be the first holiday season that Blu-ray disc players have had the market to themselves without their onetime competitor HD-DVD. Consumers have so far been slow to embrace the format; even without the competition, sales have been slow. The Consumer Electronics Assn. expects Blu-ray sales of 2 million units in the U.S. this year, vs. 20 million conventional DVD players in the same time frame.
"But fast-falling prices may get consumers interested, says iSuppli's Sheri Greenspan. 'Blu-ray will gain some attention this year because the prices are coming down so fast, and because retailers are offering package deals that include players with TVs,' Greenspan says. Some players, including Samsung, are also upping the ante by adding the ability to play streaming movies from Netflix (NFLX) and music from Pandora to their products."