Running the show
From past experience we can only hope that not only is Sony not the only one running the show, but that they're letting the marketing aspect fall to someone more capable.
It's all about the movies and the cost to transition from DVD for the average consumer.
If a year from now HD-DVD players are still 50%(read $500) cheaper with more movies available, possibly at a cheaper price... then superior tech specs or no, Blu-ray will be relegated to PS3 games and backup media for PC's. As for PS3's impacting the # of BR users, BR is already greatly limiting the PS3 launch to begin with. Regardless, only the few titles unique to the Playstation are going to look much different from 360 titles. Remember how superior the xbox hardware was to the ps2, yet the games came out by and large as ports catering to the lesser system to maximize third party profits.
Thinking about it further, the higher potential storage capacity argument doesn't hold either. All Blu-ray movies currently released have been on single-layer 25 GB discs while 30 GB dual-sided HD DVDs have been used on nearly every release.
If it came down to storage I'd expect the timetable to get bumped up on 45gb single side or 90 gb double sided hd-dvd's.
So then the argument comes down to quality I guess. Without going into how the public will sacrifice quality for cost and convenience(mp3)...
Blu-ray permits a higher maximum video-bitrate, as well as potentially higher average bitrates due to greater total disc-capacity. But if disc-capacity isn't really an issue as stated above, where is the advantage?
In terms of audio, there are greater differences. Blu-ray allows conventional AC-3 audiotracks at 640 kbit/s, which is higher than DVD/HD DVD's maximum, 448 kbit/s. On the other hand, Dolby Digital Plus support is mandatory for standalone HD DVD players at a maximum of 3 Mbit/s, while only optional for BD players and capped at 1.7 Mbit/s.
So to sum up how I interpret the current state of things... more storage on currently produced 30gb HD-DVD's with the potential to increase matching Blu-ray to limits beyond what is needed for movies. Higher potential for audio on Blu-ray but with a higher standard in place on HD-dvd players.
Sony(and company) have a formidable road ahead. And that's assuming they don't have to go up against ads saying... "Lord of the Rings(collectively the highest grossing films of all time) Only on HD-dvd."
I'm for Blu-ray and I'm not even sold yet. Especially at a $500 higher price for entry. So yeah, I'm hoping someone else holds Sony's hand on this one, soon.
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