I don't think it will survive. It's still inferior to Blu-ray discs, plus it's just out the door a bit late. And I suppose ultimately, it will fail to gain momentum due to no big names backing it, like those associated with the BDA. Furthermore, the outlets it will be available at -- Radio Shack? Seriously, c'mon.
Once Blu-ray disc drive manufacturing costs hit a new low, and the PS3 starts to move more units off the shelves with MGS4, FFXIII, RE5, GT5, etc. (1-3 years), I think Blu-ray is going to gain more ground on any opposing format. New or old.
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