in my OPINION Time is on the SIDE of Blu-Ray but NOT HD DVD WHY:
The problem already with HD DVD and you will see it more and more is Right now people just do not see paying $30.00+ for a HD MOVIE as worth it..not saying its not "for me that is" the same goes for Blu-Ray. the Majority of people do not see paying that Cost as worth it. the VAST Problem will only Compound as more time passes because UNLESS HD DVD and Blu-Ray disc prices DROP they are going to be limited in their ADOPTION rate unlike Standard DVD is right now because Standard DVD already went through this it takes time something HD DVD will not have unless it changes its direction.
though at this point its in My Opinion too late. The Reason is simple
Though there is ONE big PROBLEM that HD DVD is going to have OUTSIDE of Movies, THE FORMAT IS NOT BEING USED EXCEPT FOR A PC DATA backup. Which Blu-Ray has a advantage even on the COST for the Blank Media "Blu-Ray is the cheaper costper GB compared to HD DVD BLANK MEDIA.
But the Big Problem is there is no indication of HD DVD being used for any thing other than a MOVIE format. Blu-Ray like standards before like CD, AND STANDARD DVD, are used for other things besides MOVIES. look at the GAME industry 20+ BILLION a year and currently Blu-Ray as a format is already a part of that $20+Billion market. at $60.00 a pop for EACH Blu-Ray game which is already selling in the Millions of DISC's not just one GAME but ALREADY MORE THAN JUST ONE that's something that Blu-Ray already has in common with Standard CD format and the Standard DVD format.Blu-Ray is already Used for Other things beside Movies.
HD DVD has no INDICATED direction into that MARKET until that changes if it changes at all. which i highly doubt since companies in the HD DVD promotional group for example Microsoft seems to want to keep software outside of MOVIES off of the HD DVD format...

HD DVD's ONLY real advantage's at this time is its interactive SOFTWARE AND price of its players. which both are currently being eliminated . Blu-Ray is closeing on both of those advantages. pretty soon HD DVD will not have those. once that happens it comes down to CE and studio support. the Q: will HD DVD be able to gather enough STUDIO support and lower the cost of the HD DVD movies Cost to the CONSUMER before Blu-Ray overtakes those advantages. nope not very likely.
time is not on the SIDE of HD DVD with Blu-Ray THE BDA and SONY already established the Blu-Ray format outside of just MOVIES. HD DVD has no such established market for its format.