The one thing that gets me. Will any 1st or 2nd tier manufacture ever join Toshiba now? Toshiba has hit the sweet spot of $199 and through subsidies. No profit to be seen. Even no-name brands like Venturer will not be able to obtain much of a profit margin. It's a really weird business model.
Even if Toshiba managed to bring the war to a draw, and both formats became the norm, to do so would require that HD-DVD adopters have only purchased Toshiba. What would the incentive be for a manufacture to license from HD-DVD except for a duel format player? If duel format became the standard, the number of blu-ray adopters would dominate, simply because of the PS3 factor, and the additional licensing fees to Sony would allow a very generous offer to the remaining exclusive studios.
I just don't get what Toshiba is doing? It looks like they are subsidizing without any clear long term forecast. There is no chance with manufactures releasing an HD-DVD player, as it is unprofitable = no licensing. HD-DVD exclusive studios are said to receive production subsidies and pay no licensing for the format = no licensing money. If Toshiba is not making money off the players... where the hell are they going to get the money... DVD? HD-DVD is undercutting their DVD royalties?
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