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With 7 out 8 studios supporting Blu-ray and almost every major company making Blu-ray players, the HD-DVD format might die within a couple years. Blu-ray is a better quality format with 50GB discs available now and possible within 2 years 200GB discs. The one major event that would end the format war and bring victory to Blu-ray would be a announcement from Universal that they would start releasing movies on Blu-ray. If such an event would occur then there would be no need to buy an expensive universal player or a triple or total disc. The total play disc idea is a bad idea. I sure do not want to pay a premium price for both a HD DVD version and a Blu-ray version on the other side of the disc.
For HD DVD to survive they need to have studio support from Disney, Fox and if one is dreaming Sony. In the real world Sony would never release movies in HD-DVD format unless Blu-ray completely failed. It would be stupid for Disney or Fox to release movies in HD-DVD. Doing so would fuel the format war.
All we need for this format war to end is to have Universal release movies on Blu-ray. Then a CEO of retail stores like Best Buy and Circuit City could make a wise decision and decide to not carry any HD-DVD software in their stores. I know if I was a CEO of a retail chain if I saw that Blu-ray sold over 1 million players and HD-DVD only sold 175,000 players I would save much needed shelf space and refuse to carry HD-DVD software in the store. At some point in a year or two we may see HD-DVD dropped by some stores if Blu-ray continues to out sale HD-DVD.
This time around Sony Blu-ray is the VHS and the Toshiba HD-DVD is the Beta format in terms of winners. One of the problems with HD-DVD software when it first launched was the fact that some people thought it was like a super bit DVD that they could play on a standard DVD player. That is why almost every new release of HD-DVD is now is on dual disc format to ease customer confusion.
Some of the reasons why HD-DVD will fail:

1. HD-DVD has less capacity on the disc.
2. HD-DVD was released only 3 month before Blu-ray. If the HD-DVD format would have had a 1 year head start over Blu-ray then this format war would have lasted longer.
3. HD-DVD needs more studio support to be successful
4. HD-DVD needs more industry support besides Toshiba and a handful of lower end consumer electronics companies.