Absolutely excellent post! Very well thought out. I totally agree, HD Downloads will not work in the near future.
I would like to also bring up the idea of Video on Demand services. I believe M$ is proposing a pay-per-play option in which no download is actually initiated. You merely view the content streamed to your computer or TV. Or for an extra fee M$ deactivates the DRM software so you can record it. Although this is probably a better idea than downloads, it still wont work.
Here's why. People like to own their media. A pay-per-play may be great for rentals, but that is about it. Current Pay-per-play or VOD does not have the quality of even a DVD, let alone Blu-Ray. Even with existing VOD services, the video is plagued with artifacts, terrible audio, ect...
They will never be able to stream content like special features, director's commentary, deleted scenes, picture-in-picture, and all of the other goddies we have with disk based media.
Bandwidth will still be a limiting factor. Even with current VOD services, the access is spotty at best. If too many people request the same video at the same time, it will not engage. You just get an error message. Now imagine if this VOD service replaces physical media. The moment the big new release is made available 10,000,000 people all try to access it at the same time. System crash = No movie.
This sort of VOD service might be a good alternative to rentals... in 10 years, but will NEVER replace physical media.
Again... Excellent post. Thank-you.
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