I have Apple TV (had for many months now) and it fills a niche but is in no way a replacement for BD or even television in general. Think of it as a video iPod that stays at home, if that makes sense.
What it's really good for is TV shows and/or home videos. I really like it for that, but I'd never watch a movie using it. The real deficiency in it is that it's like a TiVo only without the ability to record broadcast TV -- kind of crippled to begin with. If they ever figure this out they'll make a mint, but right now only video dillitantes like myself can really love it.
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