Quote:
Originally Posted by Anthony P
But it is just as easy to say it is more than feasible that I will one day be at the top of Forbes richest people.
The issue I have with this idea of feasible is
1) The nature of the internet means that what ever is streaming to gave the same quality you would need 1.5x the BW compared to physical media (latency, possible routing issues, header overhead....)
2) it is not enough to have enough BW. For example sometimes I don't want to watch what my GF wants to watch and vice versa, so we both watch different things at the same time, sometimes something is DL/UL on my PC, console or tablet at the same time as I am watching a film..... so what ever we get in #1 you would need to multiply it by a reasonable # (obviously for some it will be smaller, but for others it can be larger) so let's assume a simple family, two parents and one kid so we will go with 4x (don't forget possible other tasks)
so that means that for something like 2D BD quality that has been available on physical media since 2006 to be easy to do at home you would need a 250-300 mbps connection at home
3) do you assume physical media will stay fixed? when BD launched it was 48mbps, with 3D it got bumped a bit higher and now (since it is the 4k thread) we would need to assume it will be bumped even higher. How long before 250-300 mbps links are common and cheap and how do you know where physical media will be at that point in time?
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We do not now what compression advancements will be made to start. Which make much of what you said irrelevant. Jump back 10 years ago and look at the compression tools we had then vs now. Is there something I am missing or is this not expected to continue. Furthermore this thread specifies simply future without any sense of time frame. Streaming will eventually match physical goods in terms of quality if that is the way to maximize profits. Nothing you mention is in obstacle that would be impossible to overcome. The one factor that I fell is a bigger question is whether people will demand higher quality. I'm not so sure that most do. The majority do not watch films at home in the best quality available and dvds still outsell blu - ray qround 3 to 1 last I heard. So it is possible I concede that a niche premium physical market could exist with higher quality one pays a premium for. But once again is there something that would stop that quality bieng achievable via streaming? I can't think of one in terms of technical problems that couldn't possibly be solved.
I never made mention of physical media remaining fixed or not. I do think we will eventually reach that point as I fell consumers by and large would prefer one set format for films like cds have had for quite some time.