CNET format war articles

[baccusboy]

http://reviews.cnet.com/4520-6449_7-...?tag=cnetfd.mt

In other words, Toshiba, the HD DVD Promotion Group, and Microsoft can talk all they want about interactivity and in-movie experiences, but the only way HD DVD is winning this war is on price. As it stands, this is a race to the bottom, and the more I look at it, the more I realize that I was wrong to think that a format war was bad. We need these guys to beat each other up. We need Toshiba and Microsoft to push Sony and its allies to make better and cheaper Blu-ray players. We need Universal to stay red. We need this war, folks. Give it a chance.

Interesting take. I am all for lower prices.

[The Big Blue]

Disagree totally. The harm caused at this point far outweighs the benefit.

[Blu-Ray Buckeye]

He should say "we need this war temporarily". You only need ti long enough to establish reasonably low prices. Beyond that consumers will take over as the driving force, since we the people never allow for prices to sharply go back up once an expectation has been set. If the battle can force a $399 PS3 at some point next year then the rest will take care of itself. The public will forevermore assume that they will be able to get it at that price or lower or that if the price does drift upward that they'll be getting a far superior product. This is the way of CE. Clearly I'm not trying to single out PS3, just using it as a proxy for all blu-ray machines.

[mike79]

I just read this article. From what it says, Universal is not going to be going Blu. Very intersting article.

[dialog_gvf]

So, this is the latest stay alive tactic by Microsoft? Push the idea that the vast majority of consumers should stick on the sidelines indefinitely waiting for an outcome?

WE need that, or Microsoft does?

All over saving a few $100 on a player when you'd expect $1000s being spent on software?

So, what if someone were to tell everyone to wait two years for the prices of the processors and PCs (with the video/audio) needed to properly run all HD content to drop? Sound like a good idea now Microsoft?

Gary

[binarymelon]

Competition drives down prices. While all blu-ray manufacturers and studios may seem like they're on the same team now, once the format war is over it's every man for themselves. Something will help drive down Blu-ray prices one way or another. Not to mention market saturation will be reached much sooner if the format war ends sooner than later, which will help spur innovation in manufacturing processes which will further lower costs.

[baccusboy]

Originally Posted by The Big Blue

Disagree totally. The harm caused at this point far outweighs the benefit.

If universal were to turn blue in a short while after player prices and media have dropped, then what harm would it have done to anyone other than companies seeking higher prices?

[Dorfdad]

Originally Posted by mike79

I just read this article. From what it says, Universal is not going to be going Blu. Very intersting article.

So universal has decided to step out of the Home Media alltogether? Come on you know and I know that in 2008 if Universal does not make Blu-Ray titles they are basically committing suicide.

[babyBlu]

This "war" is stunting Blu-ray's growth as a format, not good.

[Blu Tiger]

We do need this war...to be over!

[baccusboy]

Originally Posted by babyBlu

This "war" is stunting Blu-ray's growth as a format, not good.

How so? Blu-ray can only grow once HD-DVD is gone, right?

What is to fear here? Downloads?

[babyBlu]

Originally Posted by baccusboy

How so? Blu-ray can only grow once HD-DVD is gone, right?

What is to fear here? Downloads?

With Blu-ray and HD DVD available, the general consumer is too afraid to make a decision so they don't choose HD at all. Blu-ray can't be mainstream until the war is over. When that happens, there will be a larger selection of movies available.

I do not fear downloads, for many reasons. Mostly, I don't see how it can become mainstream. I heard Bill Hunt say that only 15% of all music sales come from downloads. Music downloads have been around a lot longer than video downloads and are much faster than movie downloads. I personally want a physical disk w/ a case, and I think most do.

My fear with the "war" is the stunted growth of Blu-ray. Cheaper prices are great, but I'd pay a little more to have a larger selection of movies. I want HD to be mainstream, the sooner, the better.

[baccusboy]

Originally Posted by babyBlu

My fear with the "war" is the stunted growth of Blu-ray. Cheaper prices are great, but I'd pay a little more to have a larger selection of movies. I want HD to be mainstream, the sooner, the better.

It's interesting you take that view, because this article talks about how the average consumer won't be interested until prices are similar to standard DVD prices. I'd say they definitely have to get closer than they are now.

How much more would hubris and high prices have stunted the growth of HD media?

Actually, HD-DVD may have done us all a big favor. It will go away soon, after doing so.

[Dadds]

That will be the last time I listen to them anytime soon.

[Sylin]

Just this Spring, David Carnoy was saying that Blu-ray would win the format war by October. But he's fickle like that.

We DO need competition to drive prices down. But the point being missed is we do NOT need two competing FORMATS. Sony needs to bury HD-DVD by Xmas--end of story. Then the competition WILL heat up as Sony, Panasonic, Samsung, Apex, Akai, Orion, Oppo, Denon and every other manufacturer will start producing Blu players at lower prices.

THAT is the competition we need--between each other, and NOT with another format.

As it is, Blu player prices aren't far from what DVD players cost in their infancy. I remember buying a JVC player in 1999 for $450. Hell, there's DVD players out now that cost $1000, but all the average consumer sees is the $40 Craptastic player at Walmart. For Blu to succeed, we're going to need the average consumer to understand that this is not an apples-to-apples comparison.

[babyBlu]

Ultimately, what 90 percent of people are looking for is a DVD replacement that costs basically the same as what they have now. They want a sub-$100 HD DVD or Blu-ray player and movies that are priced the same as DVDs--or less

I have not done any poll taking so I'm not going to refute this number, but if this is true then there is little hope for HD media being mainstream any time soon. I thought $250-$300 would be a good price range for an HD player. In my mind, if only HD DVD was around right now and it had all movies available, then HD would be more popular. I thought that having 2 formats was hindering HD more than price, maybe I'm wrong.

People want higher quality for the same price, or less? (God bless America...and the rest of the world )

[nhaase]

Originally Posted by binarymelon

Competition drives down prices. While all blu-ray manufacturers and studios may seem like they're on the same team now, once the format war is over it's every man for themselves. Something will help drive down Blu-ray prices one way or another. Not to mention market saturation will be reached much sooner if the format war ends sooner than later, which will help spur innovation in manufacturing processes which will further lower costs.

Right now, w/ it being summer, you're not going to see big price drops. In the fall, once people are starting spend again for holidays and because there aren't as many outdoor activities, and the nights are longer, prices will drop. They'll especially drop for the holiday season, but right now, as Daniel Craig says in Layer Cake, "Make hay while the sun shines."

[jermwhl]

I think the "need" for the war is over. Prices have fell drastically since inception. The prices are going to stable out for now, because there isn't enough demand. Once demand increases manufacturers should be able to get better prices on materials which will drive prices down even further. We will see price cuts for holidays, but major price cuts will come once one format is decided and supply and demand are in full swing!

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by ikcizokm

We DO need competition to drive prices down. But the point being missed is we do NOT need two competing FORMATS. Sony needs to bury HD-DVD by Xmas--end of story. Then the competition WILL heat up as Sony, Panasonic, Samsung, Apex, Akai, Orion, Oppo, Denon and every other manufacturer will start producing Blu players at lower prices.

THAT is the competition we need--between each other, and NOT with another format.

Bingo. And there has to be a decent margin to begin with for manufactures to invest in launching and improving designs, and adding features.

It's said that paying royalties (which many Chinese companies don't do) means a decent DVD player can't be made, distributed, and supported profitably for under $100 retail. Mindshare and hopes of selling other components (TVs and receivers) keep the big names offering something.

Toshiba is employing a scorched-earth approach right now. If people want to guarantee HD discs stall with little hardware selection, then HD DVD is the way to go.

Funny how that fits in so well with Microsoft's download aims.

Gary

[The Big Blue]

I think one thing some people have wrong is this idea that there is some magic pricepoint where all hell breaks loose and 95% of the consumers rush out and buy a Blu-ray deck/PS3. Each price reduction finds a group/% of people who are now comfortable to jump in. Look what's happening with the PS3 right now for an example. We don't have any hard numbers yet but obviously there is a group/% of people who have decided to buy the PS3 at it's $500 price tag. Some are going to wait till it's $400 and so on. It's incremental.