What will HMM report as BD revenues for Sun-Sat WE 09/10/11? (X-Men: First Class) - Blu-ray Forum

blueshadow | Kosty · 09-12-2011, 09:06 AM

Start of the polling season for this fall.

X-Men:First Class is being released on a Friday, so the Nielsen Videoscan narrative and charts will only include three days of sales data and the Sunday-Saturday Home Media Magazine Blu-ray revenues for the week will only include two days of sales (Friday and Saturday) in the reporting period week ending Saturday 9/10/11.

We should get this sales data reported early next week.

There will also be a poll on the estimates for the sales for the leading title as reported by The-Numbers for the week in a separate thread.

This poll is for the reported total Blu-ray revenues for the week from HMM.

As an incentive each week, I will be keeping track of the guesses for each poster for all of the weekly polls and I will award the weekly winners something each week as well as having a seasonal winner after the 4Q 2011 sales period has ended later on this year. I might be able to even do something tangible through paypal or something like that.

Any comments to explain or change your vote can be placed in the thread as well as any sales reports for this week as appropriate.

I personally will be voting on this thread just before it closes next Sunday.

Have fun.

Bishop_99 · 09-12-2011, 01:56 PM

I'm choosing the $30 – 39.99 million option. I'll go with the low end part of that option, maybe around $32 million.

The Friday release of X-Men is what is throwing me off a bit here. I feel that sales would have been around $20 million without X-Men, I think Scarface was selling well enough to boost Blu-ray sales closer to $20 million, and with X-Men's 2 day window, I think that should add another $12 million in revenue for the week. The Blu-ray market share will be a big determining factor as well, this is a strong BD demographic film, but it's not accompanied by a DVD copy, except for the Target exclusive. So I will like to see how that plays out as well.

I'll take this week more as a learning experience because there are too many variables here and it has been a while since I've done this

Rob71 · 09-14-2011, 01:42 PM

I went ahead and voted 40-49M. These Friday releases may have some weird effects on the revenue numbers... or not, who knows

blueshadow | Kosty · 09-14-2011, 02:26 PM

I am leaning for 30-39M for the same reasons but I want to see the marketshare and index numbers and narrative today from the Nielsen Videoscan first alert report.

blueshadow | Kosty · 09-15-2011, 05:43 AM

OK I pulled the trigger on 30-39 on the theory that 2 days of release ain't enough yet and that being the start of the season nothing much is adding to the week from previous releases.

blueshadow | Kosty · 09-17-2011, 12:45 AM

Just came back doing a quick check of my local Walmart Supercenter, Best Buy and Target while I did some shopping.

Walmart people said they sold around 50 units this morning around midnight as they are open 24 hours and advertised a free Bobba Fett poster. The entrance displays had Star Wars 1-3 4-6 and the 9 disc Blu-ray set on the normal video shelves. On the back of the store Star Wars was playing on every HDTV, there were hardware bundles and the cardboard isle display looked about half picked through.

At Target I did not see any isle displays but the Star War Blu-ray units were on an endcap by checkout isles and on an endcap by the media section. Looked a bit less picked through than Walmart even though there was a bonus lithograph. Of course LOTR EE extended edition BD was no sold at Target so any more sales for Star Wars would be an increase.

At Best Buy there were units on the shelfs, every HDTV was blazing the Star Wars clips and there were two isle displays of a Tie fighter and R2D2 that looked about half way picked through already on Friday night. Looked about 25 units sold of the complete set and 20 sold of 1-3 or 4-6.

I have no idea how that translates into revenues for the weekend or in the Sun-Sat HMM stats but it seems a bit better than LOTR EE already after the first sales day. I also looks to be on a pace to sell through the displayed inventory within a week and faster sales pace than LOTR.

X-Men: First Class also seemed to be selling well and had more depleted stock than Thor.

Bishop_99 · 09-17-2011, 02:03 AM

Good to see strong in-store promotion for a Blu-ray catalog title.

blueshadow | Kosty · 09-21-2011, 03:07 AM

$26.55 M in Blu-ray revenues for the Mon-Sun week.

No one got it right.

Rob71 +2 high

Bishop 99 and blueshadow +1 high

blueshadow | Kosty · 09-21-2011, 03:17 AM

bishop 99 and me tie for the week

PM me with your paypal account if you want or I can keep a running tally.

View Poll Results: What will HMM report as BD revenues for Sun-Sat WE 09/10/11? (2 days X-Men: First Cla
$100 million or above (around Christmas week holiday sales 12/25/10 2010)	0	0%
$90 – 99.99 million (around Despicable Me holiday sales 12/18/10 2010)	0	0%
$80 – 89.99 million (around Black Friday holiday sales 11/28/10 2010)	0	0%
$70 – 79.99 million (around Inception holiday sales12/12/10)	0	0%
$60 – 69.99 million (new record for Blu-ray weekly revenues for 2011)	0	0%
$50 – 59.99 million (around Harry Potter and the Deadly Hallows sales 04/16/10)	0	0%
$40 – 49.99 million (around Tron: Legacy sales 04/09/10)	1	33.33%
$30 – 39.99 million (around True Grit sales 06/18/10)	2	66.67%
$20 – 29.99 million (around average 2011 weekly sales of $28 M)	0	0%
$19.99 million or below (around the lowest 2011week )	0	0%
Voters: 3. You may not vote on this poll

09-12-2011, 09:06 AM	#1
blueshadow \| Kosty Power Member Member since:Sep 2007 Blu-ray collection:3	What will HMM report as BD revenues for Sun-Sat WE 09/10/11? (X-Men: First Class) Start of the polling season for this fall. X-Men:First Class is being released on a Friday, so the Nielsen Videoscan narrative and charts will only include three days of sales data and the Sunday-Saturday Home Media Magazine Blu-ray revenues for the week will only include two days of sales (Friday and Saturday) in the reporting period week ending Saturday 9/10/11. We should get this sales data reported early next week. There will also be a poll on the estimates for the sales for the leading title as reported by The-Numbers for the week in a separate thread. This poll is for the reported total Blu-ray revenues for the week from HMM. As an incentive each week, I will be keeping track of the guesses for each poster for all of the weekly polls and I will award the weekly winners something each week as well as having a seasonal winner after the 4Q 2011 sales period has ended later on this year. I might be able to even do something tangible through paypal or something like that. Any comments to explain or change your vote can be placed in the thread as well as any sales reports for this week as appropriate. I personally will be voting on this thread just before it closes next Sunday. Have fun.

09-21-2011, 03:07 AM	#8
blueshadow \| Kosty Power Member Member since:Sep 2007 Blu-ray collection:3	$26.55 M in Blu-ray revenues for the Mon-Sun week. No one got it right. Rob71 +2 high Bishop 99 and blueshadow +1 high Last edited by blueshadow \| Kosty; 09-21-2011 at 03:11 AM.

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09-12-2011, 01:56 PM	#2
Bishop_99 Blu-ray Guru Member since:Mar 2009 Location:Hialeah, Fl 4K collection:248 Blu-ray collection:580 DVD collection:28 Blu-ray reviews:2 Trading Score:18	I'm choosing the $30 – 39.99 million option. I'll go with the low end part of that option, maybe around $32 million. The Friday release of X-Men is what is throwing me off a bit here. I feel that sales would have been around $20 million without X-Men, I think Scarface was selling well enough to boost Blu-ray sales closer to $20 million, and with X-Men's 2 day window, I think that should add another $12 million in revenue for the week. The Blu-ray market share will be a big determining factor as well, this is a strong BD demographic film, but it's not accompanied by a DVD copy, except for the Target exclusive. So I will like to see how that plays out as well. I'll take this week more as a learning experience because there are too many variables here and it has been a while since I've done this

09-14-2011, 01:42 PM	#3
Rob71 Blu-ray Knight Top ranked HT gallery Top contributor Member since:Aug 2007 Location:Florida Home Theater Gallery:13 Blu-ray collection:295 Trading Score:5	I went ahead and voted 40-49M. These Friday releases may have some weird effects on the revenue numbers... or not, who knows

09-14-2011, 02:26 PM	#4
blueshadow \| Kosty Power Member Member since:Sep 2007 Blu-ray collection:3	I am leaning for 30-39M for the same reasons but I want to see the marketshare and index numbers and narrative today from the Nielsen Videoscan first alert report.

09-15-2011, 05:43 AM	#5
blueshadow \| Kosty Power Member Member since:Sep 2007 Blu-ray collection:3	OK I pulled the trigger on 30-39 on the theory that 2 days of release ain't enough yet and that being the start of the season nothing much is adding to the week from previous releases.

09-17-2011, 12:45 AM	#6
blueshadow \| Kosty Power Member Member since:Sep 2007 Blu-ray collection:3	Just came back doing a quick check of my local Walmart Supercenter, Best Buy and Target while I did some shopping. Walmart people said they sold around 50 units this morning around midnight as they are open 24 hours and advertised a free Bobba Fett poster. The entrance displays had Star Wars 1-3 4-6 and the 9 disc Blu-ray set on the normal video shelves. On the back of the store Star Wars was playing on every HDTV, there were hardware bundles and the cardboard isle display looked about half picked through. At Target I did not see any isle displays but the Star War Blu-ray units were on an endcap by checkout isles and on an endcap by the media section. Looked a bit less picked through than Walmart even though there was a bonus lithograph. Of course LOTR EE extended edition BD was no sold at Target so any more sales for Star Wars would be an increase. At Best Buy there were units on the shelfs, every HDTV was blazing the Star Wars clips and there were two isle displays of a Tie fighter and R2D2 that looked about half way picked through already on Friday night. Looked about 25 units sold of the complete set and 20 sold of 1-3 or 4-6. I have no idea how that translates into revenues for the weekend or in the Sun-Sat HMM stats but it seems a bit better than LOTR EE already after the first sales day. I also looks to be on a pace to sell through the displayed inventory within a week and faster sales pace than LOTR. X-Men: First Class also seemed to be selling well and had more depleted stock than Thor.

09-17-2011, 02:03 AM	#7
Bishop_99 Blu-ray Guru Member since:Mar 2009 Location:Hialeah, Fl 4K collection:248 Blu-ray collection:580 DVD collection:28 Blu-ray reviews:2 Trading Score:18	Good to see strong in-store promotion for a Blu-ray catalog title.

09-21-2011, 03:17 AM	#9
blueshadow \| Kosty Power Member Member since:Sep 2007 Blu-ray collection:3	bishop 99 and me tie for the week PM me with your paypal account if you want or I can keep a running tally.

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