Fox: 10 Million BD players versus 100 Thousand HD DVD players

[zombie]

http://www.homemediaretailing.com/index.cfm?sec_id=2

[JTK]

Originally Posted by nyg

http://www.homemediaretailing.com/index.cfm?sec_id=2

They wish. There aren't that many early adopters out there.

HMR: How does Blu-ray fit in a download world? Without a unified format, is there a possibility Blu-ray Disc and HD DVD could become the next UMD?


Response:


Dunn: First of all, the format war is really only going on in the press. Come the late fourth quarter, starting in November, Blu-ray is going to be showing huge numbers.

The early adopter is going Blu-ray,

Not true at all.

Not across the boards.

The early adopter is buying both formats, or HD-DVD and then waiting for Blu-Ray to get away from this shoddy MPEG2 implementation and wise up to VC-1.


Right now, short term, HD-DVD is winning.

... and I think it will be readily apparent to that crucial second tier of consumers that Blu-ray is the obvious choice.

Certainly...when you all abandon that mediocre MPEG2 implemenation...

As is? You guys lost round one to Hd-DVD...something that shouldn't have happened.

For all the support, resources, money, bluster, promises, etc. etc....you lost round one to HD-DVD.

Why? Picture and sound quality. Performance. All thanks to VC-1.

It really is an easy argument to make. Right from the start, Blu-ray is going to be in consoles, computers and video games.

So will HD-DVD.

You’ve got 170 companies involved, many of which are among the most trusted consumer brands, along with every major motion picture company but one.

True. But many of those studios are doing the right thing and supporting BOTH formats and letting the free market decide.

The penetration of Blu-ray is going to be in the millions of households by early 2007, compared to less than 100,000 households for HD DVD.

Where is he getting these numbers from?

In my dreams. I could see numbers like that maybe 5 years down the road or something!

There aren't that many people on the EARTH that own HDTV's yet!

And, it will penetrate faster than DVD did — going from zero to 10 million households like a rocket.

No, it won't.

For the sake of all HD adoption, I wish! But it will not happen.

Joe Six Pack is YEARS away from being a factor in this thing, and J6p is the only way you'd get numbers like these.

Wake me up in at least 5 years and we'll talk.

Once the delta between the two formats begins to widen like that early on, it becomes a Blu-ray no-brainer for the consumer.

No it does not. Not by a longshot.

As for digital downloading, it is at its very beginning stages. There is a long way to go before the download world leaks into the DVD business. That, too, is going to be an issue in the press but not in the marketplace. I think packaged media is pretty safe for the next 10 years.

Agreed.

[zombie]

Sales of HDTVs are greater than you might think JTK. I agree that his number sound a bit fudged but I do think he's right that Blu-ray will outsell HD DVD by a great margin, primarily due to the massive help of PS3. It's just up to the gamers to test the waters with Blu-ray movies.

[JTK]

Originally Posted by nyg

Sales of HDTVs are greater than you might think JTK. I agree that his number sound a bit fudged but I do think he's right that Blu-ray will outsell HD DVD by a great margin, primarily due to the massive help of PS3. It's just up to the gamers to test the waters with Blu-ray movies.

Agreed, but those figures are absurdly overblown unless you're talking about over a period of several years, at least.

[BTBuck1]

No what he's talking about is a fact you and many others are overlooking.

PLAYSTATION 3

need I remind you that PS3 will be a blu-ray player by default? EVERY single person who buys a PS3 now owns a Blu Ray player.

Sony plans on selling 6 million by end of fiscal 07.

they plan on selling through 4 million of that in the holiday months alone!

So, even if they only meet 1/2 or even 1/3 of that goal...we are still talking Millions

It can be debated that many ps3 owners will not even buy a BR movie, or that they aren't hooking it up to an HDTV. But I can assure you that the numbers of those that do, combined with BR stand alone sales will double, tripple & quadruple if not more that of just what Toshiba/RCA will have been able to muster.

[zombie]

Originally Posted by Brian@BBY

It can be debated that many ps3 owners will not even buy a BR movie, or that they aren't hooking it up to an HDDVD. But I can assure you that the numbers of those that do, combined with BR stand alone sales will double, tripple & quadruple if not more that of just what Toshiba/RCA will have been able to muster.

Agreed.

[BTBuck1]

Originally Posted by nyg

Agreed.

I meant Hooking it up to an HDTV not HDDVD* sorry!

[zombie]

Originally Posted by Brian@BBY

I meant Hooking it up to an HDTV not HDDVD* sorry!

Yeah I knew that.

[Longshot]

I guess this article answers the question of whetehe or not Fox will eventually support HD DVD Huh?

[BTBuck1]

Originally Posted by Longshot

I guess this article answers the question of whetehe or not Fox will eventually support HD DVD Huh?

Fox chose BR because of the protection from piracy. Amir and gang over at M$ say that it's too much protection. Well, I'm not a pirate here (notice the lack of hoop earing, striped shirt and beard + all my teeth) and I just want my favorite flicks: star wars, Indiana jones, xmen trilogy, fight club etc in High Def. So if HDDVD doesn't think it's important...and it causes my favorite flicks to go to a format where they will get released...hey guess where my money goes... a format where i'll see my favo movies released

PS, Disney as well...will likely stay BR forever.

[zombie]

Originally Posted by Longshot

I guess this article answers the question of whetehe or not Fox will eventually support HD DVD Huh?

Great point. This article effectively diminishes anyone's hope of Fox HD DVDs anytime soon.

[Applefiend]

Fox make very gung ho comments about Blu Ray from time to time, and they got some great content. Gawd bless em! I'll be queueing up to buy their BDs.

[mainman]

Originally Posted by Brian@BBY

No what he's talking about is a fact you and many others are overlooking.

PLAYSTATION 3

need I remind you that PS3 will be a blu-ray player by default? EVERY single person who buys a PS3 now owns a Blu Ray player.

Sony plans on selling 6 million by end of fiscal 07.

they plan on selling through 4 million of that in the holiday months alone!

So, even if they only meet 1/2 or even 1/3 of that goal...we are still talking Millions

It can be debated that many ps3 owners will not even buy a BR movie, or that they aren't hooking it up to an HDTV. But I can assure you that the numbers of those that do, combined with BR stand alone sales will double, tripple & quadruple if not more that of just what Toshiba/RCA will have been able to muster.

It is indeed a ? if every PS3 owner will buy BD movie. But you can be certain that almost every PS3 owner, will want to test the BD playback of his/her PS3, so they will buy at least one movie, or rent/loan it from somewhere.

[JTK]

Originally Posted by nyg

Great point. This article effectively diminishes anyone's hope of Fox HD DVDs anytime soon.

From an academic standpoint:

I wish we could (have?) seen a perfect capitalist situation, where every studio supported both formats and simply let the chips fall where they may.

Obviously that becomes impossible immediately on two exceptions: Sony would obviously not work against themselves and offer their movies to HD-DVD and Universal, as it stands, is content to be a stalwart exclusive to HD-DVD.

[zombie]

Originally Posted by JTK

From an academic standpoint:

I wish we could (have?) seen a perfect capitalist situation, where every studio supported both formats and simply let the chips fall where they may.

Obviously that becomes impossible immediately on two exceptions: Sony would obviously not work against themselves and offer their movies to HD-DVD and Universal, as it stands, is content to be a stalwart exclusive to HD-DVD.

Yeah but if both formats launched simultaneously with equal studio support would things be an clearer than they are now?

[hmurchison]

Much respect JTK on that reply. Dunn was doing a wee bit of cheerleading.

You cannot talk about the ramifications of the PS3 having Blu-Ray without talking about the HD DVD option coming for the Xbox360. Microsoft is claiming what 15 million Xbox360 in play by end of 2007 if even just %10 purchase HD DVD add-on you're looking at 1.5Million there alone. And unlike the PS3 you can guarantee that those purchases are for movies because there's no other functionality of that add-on in a gaming sense.

I'm not a theif either. I've never ripped a DVD. But even I can see how BD+ could affect Managed Copy to the point of rendering it useless. Managed Copy is going to be huge. Every HD DVD player will have an ethernet port and iHD allows content to be sync to the disc so additional video or language/soundtracks tracks can be added via downloads. That's pretty damn cool

I'm not too worried about studio support myself. I'll have both players but if HD DVD can handle Managed Copy and syncing like they've mentioned then I could see myself buying the HD DVD version whenever it's available.

I don't think Disney is going to be BD only for that long. I think Fox is BD until death. Disney co-created iHD with Microsoft and they don't seem to exhibit the animosity towards the format that Fox does. Franky I'm not keen on supporting Fox that much anyways. I don't like that studios "Culture" I'm not a thief nor your personal atm. I'm buy a Columbia disc before spending money giving them any profit.

[JTK]

I'd do cartwheels in the streets if there was anywhere remotely near "millions" of HDTV owners out there right now, but that simply isn't so.

If it were true, I probably would have to hunt high and low to even SEE an SD or analog signal anywhere but you all know the real deal on that.

[Jazar]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

Much respect JTK on that reply. Dunn was doing a wee bit of cheerleading.

You cannot talk about the ramifications of the PS3 having Blu-Ray without talking about the HD DVD option coming for the Xbox360. Microsoft is claiming what 15 million Xbox360 in play by end of 2007 if even just %10 purchase HD DVD add-on you're looking at 1.5Million there alone. And unlike the PS3 you can guarantee that those purchases are for movies because there's no other functionality of that add-on in a gaming sense.

I'm not a theif either. I've never ripped a DVD. But even I can see how BD+ could affect Managed Copy to the point of rendering it useless. Managed Copy is going to be huge. Every HD DVD player will have an ethernet port and iHD allows content to be sync to the disc so additional video or language/soundtracks tracks can be added via downloads. That's pretty damn cool

I'm not too worried about studio support myself. I'll have both players but if HD DVD can handle Managed Copy and syncing like they've mentioned then I could see myself buying the HD DVD version whenever it's available.

I don't think Disney is going to be BD only for that long. I think Fox is BD until death. Disney co-created iHD with Microsoft and they don't seem to exhibit the animosity towards the format that Fox does. Franky I'm not keen on supporting Fox that much anyways. I don't like that studios "Culture" I'm not a thief nor your personal atm. I'm buy a Columbia disc before spending money giving them any profit.

I'm very weary about that HD-DVD addon for the Xbox 360. It's an interesting alternative to the full price toshiba, one I'm even willing to consider, but it looks like it'll be component only (unless Microsoft re-releases the 360 to include HDMI or does some magic voodoo to have the addon peripheral support it) and that really drops the value IMO. Not to mention that addons like this usually don't do so hot.

People keep saying that to be an early BR supporter you need to play the waiting game (Dual layer discs, advanced codecs, etc) all at the mercy of Sony. However, I see HD-DVD being in a much dire waiting game: Waiting for the support of the largest movie and television studios. That's one game that if HD-DVD loses then it's just not going to be a viable alternative, superior picture or not. Content goes to the one with the largest userbase and while right now the Toshiba is doing OK in sales, at the end of this year it will be up against not only Samsung but Sony, Pioneer, Panasonic, Philips, PC drives, and the PS3.

[hmurchison]

Jazar

There are twice as many movies available TODAY for HD DVD than Blu-Ray. HD DVD owners are simply waiting for the next release

Yes there will be more competition later on but consider this.

Toshiba $499

Panasonic BD - $1299
Samsung BD- $999
Pioneer BD- $1299
Sony BD- $999
PS3- $499-599 constrained...you'll be lucky to get a bare unit until 2007

a great salesperson can cover the difference but that's going to be rare. It doesn't matter how many BD players you toss in the mix. The masses aren't going to pay twice as much for BD.

I can live without Fox and Columbia. What I'd like is Buena Vista/Disney and Lionsgate to join HD DVD.

[JTK]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

Jazar

There are twice as many movies available TODAY for HD DVD than Blu-Ray. HD DVD owners are simply waiting for the next release

Yes there will be more competition later on but consider this.

Toshiba $499

Panasonic BD - $1299
Samsung BD- $999
Pioneer BD- $1299
Sony BD- $999
PS3- $499-599 constrained...you'll be lucky to get a bare unit until 2007

a great salesperson can cover the difference but that's going to be rare. It doesn't matter how many BD players you toss in the mix. The masses aren't going to pay twice as much for BD.

I can live without Fox and Columbia. What I'd like is Buena Vista/Disney and Lionsgate to join HD DVD.

I'm amazed you don't own an HD-DVD player yet...