Poll: What defines the end of the war? - Blu-ray Forum

phloyd · 02-01-2007, 12:54 AM

What in your opinion will be the end of the format war?

Note that there is no right answer

But I am curious as to what you think...

JToddler · 02-01-2007, 01:06 AM

I say HD-DVD lags by some factor in sales but in order to achieve that, Universal has to start releasing in blu-ray format and sell! The variance will then be wide and the gap is huge!

I casted my vote to #3!

Guinness7 · 02-01-2007, 01:11 AM

I think if it is lagging 10:1 in sales it will kind of be done or if starts to lose studio support

Ascended_Saiyan · 02-01-2007, 01:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Guinness7

I think if it is lagging 10:1 in sales it will kind of be done or if starts to lose studio support

It's over if Universal starts supporting both formats or BD outsells HD-DVD by 8:1. Either way...it's curtains I tell you...CURTAINS!

dialog_gvf · 02-01-2007, 01:46 AM

As long as Universal is a hold out, I don't think mass adoption kicks in big.

Although, the PS/3 makes things pretty huge in a few years.

Gary

WriteSimply · 02-01-2007, 02:24 AM

A 10:1 ratio is not realistic to me. That means executives are not doing their job and should be fired for holding out too long. 2.6:1 is close to damaging enough but 5:1 should be the limit.

As for Warner and Paramount quitting option, that's almost the death knell. What will Universal do? Prop up the format on their own? That option is closely related to Universal releasing on BD which to me is the true sign of the end of the war.

fuad

HDTV1080P · 02-01-2007, 02:26 AM

Technically HD-DVD is not dead until Toshiba decides to stop making HD-DVD players. Then they would start making BLU-RAY players a year or two after stopping production of HD-DVD players.

HDTV1080P · 02-01-2007, 02:30 AM

Now of course if every studio is supporting BLU-RAY accept for Universal and then Universal decided to make BLU-RAY movies then HD-DVD would die very fast.
In theory if Universal studios never switches sides and Pioneer and several other manufactories decided to release universal players then both formats would coexist like the DVD-AUDIO and SUPER AUDIO CD has.

HDTV1080P · 02-01-2007, 02:39 AM

***This post is a joke***
Now in someone’s twisted HD-DVD fantasy world they might believe BLU-RAY is already dead or soon going to be buried. For BLU-RAY to die you would need FOX, Sony, and Disney to stop making BLU-RAY discs and only release on HD-DVD. Also if every manufactory supporting BLU-RAY decided to join the Microsoft/ Toshiba side then BLU-RAY would die. Maybe I should go over to the HD-DVD forums and post stupid theories on why BLU-RAY is going to die and how every one on the planet is going to buy a Toshiba HD-DVD player.

phloyd · 02-01-2007, 06:17 AM

Perhaps I should run a 'format neutral' poll of the same nature on AVS...

Need0fMany · 02-01-2007, 11:18 AM

First, I believe that #3, the 10:1 lag would be a justification for companies to stop supporting HD-DVD but not an official "end of war" victory flag. In that sense, so is #2, more studios going BD only would be a shift in the tide but not yet the end of the war.

The end of a war can only come when one of the party at war surrenders or is defeated to the point of not being able to operate. The 3 main players keeping the HD-DVD alive and fighting are: Toshiba, Microsoft and Universal. We can all agree that none of those will go out of business so, as per the above, to end the war requires a surrender.

Toshiba is the main creator of the format and its associated player. So Toshiba stopping HD-DVD production would be an official end of war. Probability? Not likely this year. To avoid consumer backlash, they will need to slowly phase out support first by not releasing new players, then by reducing the numbers available for sale, then by obsolecing the product. We are talking at least 2-3 years for the full cycle. Just go back and look at Betamax or any other format that "lost".

Microsoft is kind of the glue between Toshiba and Universal. They provide software, codecs, and encoding services, as well as a ton of free marketing. Their main goal is to thwart Sony's BD and PS3, while growing their 360 fan base and enabling downloads and IPTV in the future. Having only gone the way of an HD-DVD add-on so far, there are the ones that could abandon HD-DVD the most easily without too much consumer backlash. The reality however is that they have tons of money in the bank and keeping the "war" going plays in their favor, so don't expect them to change side or go neutral any time soon.

Finally, Universal is the main studio being HD-DVD exclusive. Being a corporation, their board members will have to weight the money they are loosing by not releasing BD titles against the direct and indirect benefits they get from supporting HD-DVD alone. At one point, given current trends, they will be forced to at least go format neutral. They will probably do so by releasing in BD a few of their titles originally released on HD-DVD a long time ago. They will be very very slow to catch-up; even more so than Warner. Later on, if Toshiba stops releasing new players, they might release new movies in BD at the same time as HD-DVD. A while later, they will drop HD-DVD releases, maybe corresponding with a Toshiba obsoletion of the format 2-3 years down the road.

So, the start of the end of the "war" in my view will be when Universal goes neutral.

Slippy · 02-01-2007, 12:43 PM

Several things would end it.

1) Toshiba supports Blu-ray (immediate end)
2) Major (U.S) retailer withdraws support, ie. Walmart, Best Buy et. al (quick end)
3) Warner and/or Paramount withdraw support from HD-DVD OR Universal goes neutral (protracted end)
4) Sales marginalise HD-DVD by factor of 20:1, making it irrelevant (ultra-protracted end)

In terms of likelihood its #4 > #2 > #3 > > > > > > > > #1
-------

The end will be long since heralded before it comes. What we have currently are figures that support an inevitable dominance of Blu-ray, but thats just a factor that hastens the end of the war. Dominance itself has to reach a critical mass where resistance is literally futile to affect the end alone.

mbslrm · 02-01-2007, 01:42 PM

Warner or Paramount quits HD DVD

ProvenFlipper · 02-01-2007, 01:55 PM

When Universal starts releasing on BD and Warner/Paramount made BDs that are superior in some way to make even the HD-DVD people buy BDs. Toshiba would also have to stop making hardware, and eventually the new releases would slow to a trickle.

powerSURG · 02-01-2007, 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WriteSimply

A 10:1 ratio is not realistic to me. That means executives are not doing their job and should be fired for holding out too long. 2.6:1 is close to damaging enough but 5:1 should be the limit.

As for Warner and Paramount quitting option, that's almost the death knell. What will Universal do? Prop up the format on their own? That option is closely related to Universal releasing on BD which to me is the true sign of the end of the war.

fuad

I agree that 5:1 would be a defining number. It is one that not only shows current strength of BD, but also the future of BD. At that time, I think Universal will begin to panic. Just a little...

donricouga · 02-01-2007, 02:25 PM

Universal goes neutral. Then you can get pretty much every movie on Blu-ray or only some on HDDVD

What'sHD · 02-03-2007, 05:18 AM

I think a good indicator of the end will be when we see a massive surge in 2nd hand sales of All HD-dvd titles. It would indicate the erosion of consumer confidence in its survival.

On the bright side, those who dont ever want any Sony, fox or disney movies will make a killing buying cheap movies.

Apparently, there are a lot of those on AVS

onanie · 02-03-2007, 07:33 AM

Good poll, and the results are interesting as I feel differently to the majority. HD DVD losing Warner and Paramount would be much more momentous than Universal becoming neutral (in which case the magnitude of studio support remains unchanged for HD DVD).

Iceman_II · 02-03-2007, 12:07 PM

You left out one choice, the historical perspective choice...

"A mushroom shaped cloud over the toshiba headquarters building"

phloyd · 02-03-2007, 05:47 PM

One of the points of the poll is that there is going to be some segment declaring that it is all over (well, some already are

) while others will disagree... I think this will be a common theme throughout the year.

It is more likely that Universal will go BD before Paramount or Warner drop HD DVD. Though I think a reduction in studio support would really be the death knell - and if it does not happen, we will have a situation where one dominates but the other sticks around indefinitely...

Remember... 2011 we will probably have word of a 4k resolution format... That is only 4 years away!

What to do then?!?

View Poll Results: What defines the end of the format war?
Universal releases BDs in the USA	46	56.79%
Warner or Paramount quits HD DVD	13	16.05%
HD DVD lags by some factor ... say 10:1	21	25.93%
It will never end	1	1.23%
Voters: 81. You may not vote on this poll

02-01-2007, 02:39 AM	#9
HDTV1080P Blu-ray Champion Top contributor Member since:Jan 2007 Blu-ray reviews: 205	Blu-ray Has Already Lost The War *This post is a joke* Now in someone’s twisted HD-DVD fantasy world they might believe BLU-RAY is already dead or soon going to be buried. For BLU-RAY to die you would need FOX, Sony, and Disney to stop making BLU-RAY discs and only release on HD-DVD. Also if every manufactory supporting BLU-RAY decided to join the Microsoft/ Toshiba side then BLU-RAY would die. Maybe I should go over to the HD-DVD forums and post stupid theories on why BLU-RAY is going to die and how every one on the planet is going to buy a Toshiba HD-DVD player.

02-03-2007, 05:18 AM	#17
What'sHD Senior Member Member since:Feb 2007	This is the end.. my only friend, the end I think a good indicator of the end will be when we see a massive surge in 2nd hand sales of All HD-dvd titles. It would indicate the erosion of consumer confidence in its survival. On the bright side, those who dont ever want any Sony, fox or disney movies will make a killing buying cheap movies. Apparently, there are a lot of those on AVS

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02-01-2007, 12:54 AM	#1
phloyd Blu-ray Guru Member since:Dec 2003 Location:California Trading Score:5	Poll: What defines the end of the war? What in your opinion will be the end of the format war? Note that there is no right answer But I am curious as to what you think...

02-01-2007, 01:06 AM	#2
JToddler Active Member Member since:Oct 2006 Blu-ray reviews:1	I say HD-DVD lags by some factor in sales but in order to achieve that, Universal has to start releasing in blu-ray format and sell! The variance will then be wide and the gap is huge! I casted my vote to #3! Last edited by JToddler; 02-01-2007 at 01:13 AM.

02-01-2007, 01:11 AM	#3
Guinness7 Power Member Top contributor Member since:Jan 2007 Location:NJ Blu-ray collection:259 Trading Score:59	I think if it is lagging 10:1 in sales it will kind of be done or if starts to lose studio support

02-01-2007, 01:46 AM	#5
dialog_gvf Moderator Member since:Nov 2006 Location:Toronto Blu-ray collection:320	As long as Universal is a hold out, I don't think mass adoption kicks in big. Although, the PS/3 makes things pretty huge in a few years. Gary

02-01-2007, 02:24 AM	#6
WriteSimply Blu-ray Ninja Member since:Sep 2006 Location:Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia	A 10:1 ratio is not realistic to me. That means executives are not doing their job and should be fired for holding out too long. 2.6:1 is close to damaging enough but 5:1 should be the limit. As for Warner and Paramount quitting option, that's almost the death knell. What will Universal do? Prop up the format on their own? That option is closely related to Universal releasing on BD which to me is the true sign of the end of the war. fuad

02-01-2007, 02:26 AM	#7
HDTV1080P Blu-ray Champion Top contributor Member since:Jan 2007 Blu-ray reviews: 205	Technically HD-DVD is not dead until Toshiba decides to stop making HD-DVD players. Then they would start making BLU-RAY players a year or two after stopping production of HD-DVD players.

02-01-2007, 02:30 AM	#8
HDTV1080P Blu-ray Champion Top contributor Member since:Jan 2007 Blu-ray reviews: 205	Now of course if every studio is supporting BLU-RAY accept for Universal and then Universal decided to make BLU-RAY movies then HD-DVD would die very fast. In theory if Universal studios never switches sides and Pioneer and several other manufactories decided to release universal players then both formats would coexist like the DVD-AUDIO and SUPER AUDIO CD has.

02-01-2007, 06:17 AM	#10
phloyd Blu-ray Guru Member since:Dec 2003 Location:California Trading Score:5	Perhaps I should run a 'format neutral' poll of the same nature on AVS...

02-01-2007, 11:18 AM	#11
Need0fMany Active Member Member since:Jan 2007	First, I believe that #3, the 10:1 lag would be a justification for companies to stop supporting HD-DVD but not an official "end of war" victory flag. In that sense, so is #2, more studios going BD only would be a shift in the tide but not yet the end of the war. The end of a war can only come when one of the party at war surrenders or is defeated to the point of not being able to operate. The 3 main players keeping the HD-DVD alive and fighting are: Toshiba, Microsoft and Universal. We can all agree that none of those will go out of business so, as per the above, to end the war requires a surrender. Toshiba is the main creator of the format and its associated player. So Toshiba stopping HD-DVD production would be an official end of war. Probability? Not likely this year. To avoid consumer backlash, they will need to slowly phase out support first by not releasing new players, then by reducing the numbers available for sale, then by obsolecing the product. We are talking at least 2-3 years for the full cycle. Just go back and look at Betamax or any other format that "lost". Microsoft is kind of the glue between Toshiba and Universal. They provide software, codecs, and encoding services, as well as a ton of free marketing. Their main goal is to thwart Sony's BD and PS3, while growing their 360 fan base and enabling downloads and IPTV in the future. Having only gone the way of an HD-DVD add-on so far, there are the ones that could abandon HD-DVD the most easily without too much consumer backlash. The reality however is that they have tons of money in the bank and keeping the "war" going plays in their favor, so don't expect them to change side or go neutral any time soon. Finally, Universal is the main studio being HD-DVD exclusive. Being a corporation, their board members will have to weight the money they are loosing by not releasing BD titles against the direct and indirect benefits they get from supporting HD-DVD alone. At one point, given current trends, they will be forced to at least go format neutral. They will probably do so by releasing in BD a few of their titles originally released on HD-DVD a long time ago. They will be very very slow to catch-up; even more so than Warner. Later on, if Toshiba stops releasing new players, they might release new movies in BD at the same time as HD-DVD. A while later, they will drop HD-DVD releases, maybe corresponding with a Toshiba obsoletion of the format 2-3 years down the road. So, the start of the end of the "war" in my view will be when Universal goes neutral.

02-01-2007, 12:43 PM	#12
Slippy Junior Member Member since:Feb 2007	Several things would end it. 1) Toshiba supports Blu-ray (immediate end) 2) Major (U.S) retailer withdraws support, ie. Walmart, Best Buy et. al (quick end) 3) Warner and/or Paramount withdraw support from HD-DVD OR Universal goes neutral (protracted end) 4) Sales marginalise HD-DVD by factor of 20:1, making it irrelevant (ultra-protracted end) In terms of likelihood its #4 > #2 > #3 > > > > > > > > #1 ------- The end will be long since heralded before it comes. What we have currently are figures that support an inevitable dominance of Blu-ray, but thats just a factor that hastens the end of the war. Dominance itself has to reach a critical mass where resistance is literally futile to affect the end alone.

02-01-2007, 01:42 PM	#13
mbslrm Active Member Member since:Dec 2006 Location:Mississauga, ON	Warner or Paramount quits HD DVD

02-01-2007, 01:55 PM	#14
ProvenFlipper Special Member Member since:Jun 2006 Home Theater Gallery:4 4K collection:335 Blu-ray collection:901 Trading Score:1	When Universal starts releasing on BD and Warner/Paramount made BDs that are superior in some way to make even the HD-DVD people buy BDs. Toshiba would also have to stop making hardware, and eventually the new releases would slow to a trickle.

02-01-2007, 02:25 PM	#16
donricouga Senior Member Member since:Jan 2007 Location:Atlanta, GA Blu-ray collection:138 Blu-ray reviews: 9 Trading Score:1	Universal goes neutral. Then you can get pretty much every movie on Blu-ray or only some on HDDVD

02-03-2007, 07:33 AM	#18
onanie Active Member Member since:Nov 2006	Good poll, and the results are interesting as I feel differently to the majority. HD DVD losing Warner and Paramount would be much more momentous than Universal becoming neutral (in which case the magnitude of studio support remains unchanged for HD DVD).

02-03-2007, 12:07 PM	#19
Iceman_II Expert Member Member since:Jan 2007 Location:Ft. Worth Home Theater Gallery:2 Blu-ray collection:308 Blu-ray reviews: 4	You left out one choice, the historical perspective choice... "A mushroom shaped cloud over the toshiba headquarters building"

02-03-2007, 05:47 PM	#20
phloyd Blu-ray Guru Member since:Dec 2003 Location:California Trading Score:5	One of the points of the poll is that there is going to be some segment declaring that it is all over (well, some already are ) while others will disagree... I think this will be a common theme throughout the year. It is more likely that Universal will go BD before Paramount or Warner drop HD DVD. Though I think a reduction in studio support would really be the death knell - and if it does not happen, we will have a situation where one dominates but the other sticks around indefinitely... Remember... 2011 we will probably have word of a 4k resolution format... That is only 4 years away! What to do then?!?

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