'Super' Box Office Weekend 6/10 - 6/12 - Blu-ray Forum

Blu Titan · 06-07-2011, 06:34 PM

Current Box Office Champ X-Men: First Class will try to withstand a strong challenge from J.J. Abrams' Super 8. Superhero movies usually suffer a +50% drop from the first to the second weekend. Assuming a strond hold (drop of only 40%), First class should take no more than $31M in its second weekend. Every Summer a movie comes along and becomes a "sleeper" hit, The Karate Kid 2010 comes to mind from last year. Some industry experts believe that Super 8 can become a box office hit, but it is a hard movie to gauge. Reviews have been mostly positive for Super 8 and there should be additional demand on Friday since kids will be out of school (at least in Miami

). Super 8 will have competition from another kid's movie Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer. Super 8 will come out on top with $35M, First Class $28M, and The Hangover II with $17M.

X-Men First Class

first.jpg

Super 8

super.jpg

Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer

judy.jpg

The Hangover Part II

hangover.jpg

Foggy · 06-07-2011, 06:41 PM

The f**k is Judy Moody???

Mandalorian · 06-07-2011, 06:46 PM

Super 8...no contest. I really hope X-Men does well, but it isn't looking good. Also, what the hell happened to Kung Fu Panda 2? I thought that was a guaranteed half a bil, but it hasn't even made it's budget over here.

Chaotic · 06-07-2011, 06:48 PM

1. X-Men $27M
2. Super 8 $22M
3. Kung Fu Panda 2 $18M
4. Hangover 2 $16M
5. Judy Moody $13M

AKORIS · 06-07-2011, 06:50 PM

I've been wrong so far every week--

all I'm gonna say is that SUPER 8 will be #1

Blu Titan · 06-07-2011, 07:39 PM

Top 7 for Monday:

Quote:

1 X-MEN: FIRST CLASS: $5,452,193

2 THE HANGOVER PART II: $3,247,199

3 KUNG FU PANDA 2: $2,331,802

4 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: ON STRANGER TIDES: $1,857,198

5 BRIDESMAIDS: $1,517,880

6 THOR: $500,801

7 FAST FIVE: $346,735

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

Moleman1138 · 06-07-2011, 09:33 PM

Okay who voted Judy Moody #1 for the weekend.

As much as I want X-Men to hold, it's obviously Super 8.

Blu Titan · 06-07-2011, 09:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moleman1138

Okay who voted Judy Moody #1 for the weekend.

As much as I want X-Men to hold, it's obviously Super 8.

If you click on the number of votes it will tell you which member voted for a particular movie

.

AKORIS · 06-07-2011, 10:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blu Titan

If you click on the number of votes it will tell you which member voted for a particular movie

.

I never knew that! thanks for the info

Taipan · 06-07-2011, 11:25 PM

You know; I think it might be close between Super 8 and Judy Moody. There hasn't been a teen movie out for some time, and school is out pretty much everywhere.

I say Super 8 by 5 mill.

Diesel · 06-07-2011, 11:39 PM

I voted X-Men...but it could just as easily be Super 8. Last I read it was tracking low...not sure if that's changed or not as I haven't kept up with this movie.

The thing with Super 8 is...hardly anyone knows what the hell it is even about because of the secrecy in the marketing. If there's a pay off to the secrecy, it could have strong word of mouth and legs....if the veil is lifted and the audience doesn't like what they see, then....

Walts Ghost · 06-07-2011, 11:44 PM

Super 8
X-Men
Hangover 2
Kung Fu Panda 2

Judy Moody -WTF is this?! I've never even heard of it.

Diesel · 06-07-2011, 11:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Walts Ghost

Super 8
X-Men

Judy Moody -WTF is this?! I've never even heard of it.

Because you probably don't watch Nick or Disney. I have a little cousin who wants to see it...besides that I'd be just as

as you guys

Bishop_99 · 06-07-2011, 11:49 PM

I'll go for Super 8 but I'm really up in the air with how much can it open with. Diesel is right about Super 8 and if it pans out that way, I can see it having great holds week after week, just not a huge first week. I just don't see the level of hype around it as I did with Cloverfield, maybe I haven't been paying attention, but I'll be surprised if it can open as big as Cloverfield did. It will easily have better legs than Cloverfield so it should do well in the long run.

Walts Ghost · 06-07-2011, 11:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Diesel

Because you probably don't watch Nick or Disney. I have a little cousin who wants to see it...besides that I'd be just as

as you guys

Haha yeah, but usually I've at least seen a TV spot of trailer or poster somewhere.....but nothing on this.

I'm pretty sure this is going to tank.

Aerodude73 · 06-08-2011, 03:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Walts Ghost

Super 8
X-Men
Hangover 2
Kung Fu Panda 2

Judy Moody -WTF is this?! I've never even heard of it.

Agreed with everything you wrote buddy - same order of films & I've never heard of Judy Moody either. If that's mainly due it being on Nick or Disney channels, then so be it. But wouldn't they have a Couple trailers on Network TV the Week it opens, or is their marketing budget just $57 ?

SUPER 8 - $38M
X-MEN - $30M
HANGOVER 2 - $24M
KFP 2 - $12M

Blu Titan · 06-08-2011, 04:40 AM

POTC: On Stranger Tides' box office has regressed in the US, but that is not the case overseas. The movie is; in fact, a huge hit due to the appeal of Penelope Cruz and Johnny Deep. Expect Stranger Tides to remain #1 overseas for the upcoming weekend....ahoy

!

Quote:

Raking in an estimated $69.4 million, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides slowed 45 percent from last weekend, but its foreign haul climbed to $600.4 million. On the all-time foreign gross chart, the supernatural swashbuckler ranked 16th, and it won't be long before On Stranger Tides exceeds the final grosses of Dead Man's Chest ($642.9 million) and At World's End ($654 million) and lands in the Top Ten. On Stranger Tides' top three single markets were Japan ($61.5 million), Russia ($57.1 million) and China ($53 million). Add in its domestic gross ($190.3 million), and the movie's worldwide take stood at $790.7 million, ranking 31st on the all-time worldwide gross chart.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3180&p=.htm

Blu Titan · 06-08-2011, 04:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Diesel

Because you probably don't watch Nick or Disney. I have a little cousin who wants to see it...besides that I'd be just as

as you guys

Yeah, they play the trailers on Nick and Disney all the time...my son has no interest because "its too girly"

. However, don't be surprised if it does well at the box office with the Bieber crowd.

Walts Ghost · 06-08-2011, 05:09 AM

I actually just saw a TV spot and ugh...That looks bad...Really, really bad. And I usually don't mind kids movies.

perdition · 06-08-2011, 03:20 PM

I'm thinking Super 8 with ~$40 million.

06-07-2011, 11:39 PM	#11
Diesel Blu-ray Archduke Top contributor Member since:Jan 2009 4K collection:- Blu-ray collection:- DVD collection:- Digital collection:- Blu-ray reviews: 31 Trading Score:10	I voted X-Men...but it could just as easily be Super 8. Last I read it was tracking low...not sure if that's changed or not as I haven't kept up with this movie. The thing with Super 8 is...hardly anyone knows what the hell it is even about because of the secrecy in the marketing. If there's a pay off to the secrecy, it could have strong word of mouth and legs....if the veil is lifted and the audience doesn't like what they see, then.... Last edited by Diesel; 06-07-2011 at 11:44 PM.

View Poll Results: Which movie will win the box office weekend 6/10 - 6/12?
X-Men: First Class	13	22.81%
Super 8	42	73.68%
Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer	2	3.51%
The Hangover Part II	0	0%
Voters: 57. You may not vote on this poll

06-07-2011, 06:34 PM	#1
Blu Titan Super Moderator Top ranked HT gallery Top contributor Member since:Jul 2007 Location:Edo, Land of the Samurai Home Theater Gallery:42 4K collection:41 Blu-ray collection:2864 Blu-ray reviews: 2 Trading Score:92	'Super' Box Office Weekend 6/10 - 6/12 Current Box Office Champ X-Men: First Class will try to withstand a strong challenge from J.J. Abrams' Super 8. Superhero movies usually suffer a +50% drop from the first to the second weekend. Assuming a strond hold (drop of only 40%), First class should take no more than $31M in its second weekend. Every Summer a movie comes along and becomes a "sleeper" hit, The Karate Kid 2010 comes to mind from last year. Some industry experts believe that Super 8 can become a box office hit, but it is a hard movie to gauge. Reviews have been mostly positive for Super 8 and there should be additional demand on Friday since kids will be out of school (at least in Miami ). Super 8 will have competition from another kid's movie Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer. Super 8 will come out on top with $35M, First Class $28M, and The Hangover II with $17M. X-Men First Class first.jpg Super 8 super.jpg Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer judy.jpg The Hangover Part II hangover.jpg Last edited by Blu Titan; 06-09-2011 at 05:35 PM. Reason: Lowered top three predictions by a bit.

06-07-2011, 06:41 PM	#2
Foggy Blu-ray Grand Duke Top contributor Member since:Dec 2008 Location:UK 4K collection:29 Blu-ray collection:3589 DVD collection:47	The f**k is Judy Moody???

06-07-2011, 06:46 PM	#3
Mandalorian Blu-ray Grand Duke Top contributor Member since:Sep 2010 4K collection:1130 Blu-ray collection:2783 Trading Score:252	Super 8...no contest. I really hope X-Men does well, but it isn't looking good. Also, what the hell happened to Kung Fu Panda 2? I thought that was a guaranteed half a bil, but it hasn't even made it's budget over here.

06-07-2011, 06:48 PM	#4
Chaotic Blu-ray Grand Duke Member since:Mar 2009 Location:Denver, CO	1. X-Men $27M 2. Super 8 $22M 3. Kung Fu Panda 2 $18M 4. Hangover 2 $16M 5. Judy Moody $13M

06-07-2011, 06:50 PM	#5
AKORIS Blu-ray Prince Member since:Jul 2008 Location:Beautiful Pacific Northwest 4K collection:662 Blu-ray collection:3656 Blu-ray reviews:19	I've been wrong so far every week-- all I'm gonna say is that SUPER 8 will be #1

06-07-2011, 09:33 PM	#7
Moleman1138 Special Member Top contributor Member since:Apr 2010 Location:Rochester, NY 4K collection:1 Blu-ray collection:772 DVD collection:172 Blu-ray reviews: 5 Trading Score:1	Okay who voted Judy Moody #1 for the weekend. As much as I want X-Men to hold, it's obviously Super 8.

06-07-2011, 11:25 PM	#10
Taipan Blu-ray Samurai Member since:Oct 2010 Location:In my theater room. Blu-ray collection:483 Trading Score:4	You know; I think it might be close between Super 8 and Judy Moody. There hasn't been a teen movie out for some time, and school is out pretty much everywhere. I say Super 8 by 5 mill.

06-07-2011, 11:44 PM	#12
Walts Ghost Blu-ray Prince Top contributor Member since:Jun 2010 Location:Arizona 4K collection:783 Blu-ray collection:3086 DVD collection:177 iTunes collection:34 Blu-ray reviews: 33 Trading Score:1	Super 8 X-Men Hangover 2 Kung Fu Panda 2 Judy Moody -WTF is this?! I've never even heard of it.

06-07-2011, 11:49 PM	#14
Bishop_99 Blu-ray Guru Member since:Mar 2009 Location:Hialeah, Fl 4K collection:248 Blu-ray collection:580 DVD collection:28 Blu-ray reviews:2 Trading Score:18	I'll go for Super 8 but I'm really up in the air with how much can it open with. Diesel is right about Super 8 and if it pans out that way, I can see it having great holds week after week, just not a huge first week. I just don't see the level of hype around it as I did with Cloverfield, maybe I haven't been paying attention, but I'll be surprised if it can open as big as Cloverfield did. It will easily have better legs than Cloverfield so it should do well in the long run.

06-08-2011, 05:09 AM	#19
Walts Ghost Blu-ray Prince Top contributor Member since:Jun 2010 Location:Arizona 4K collection:783 Blu-ray collection:3086 DVD collection:177 iTunes collection:34 Blu-ray reviews: 33 Trading Score:1	I actually just saw a TV spot and ugh...That looks bad...Really, really bad. And I usually don't mind kids movies.

06-08-2011, 03:20 PM	#20
perdition Senior Member Member since:Apr 2010 Blu-ray collection:184 Blu-ray reviews:1	I'm thinking Super 8 with ~$40 million.

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