Why Blu-Ray and HD-DVD will NOT be the format of choice in 8 years...

[rimgrund]

It all has to do with AACS giving studios the CHOICE on whether or not they want to adopt the "Image Constraint Token" (i.e. ICT) which will downgrade 1080p analogue output to 540p (half the resolution we paid for!).

With that being said, I am going to make an early prediction as to what's going to happen, and this will be deadly accurate, as time will surely tell. Read on...

1. Major studios WILL in fact downgrade the 1080p signal to 540p for analogue output. Remember: they don't HAVE to; according to AACS, they have the choice.
2. A hacker will find a way to get around the encryption in the HDMI signal. There will be a 'rush' to get this done because hackers realize that once they crack the encyption, they can create discs for analogue TV owners, as they will have the ability to remove the ICT from any disc.
3. At first, only 'downgraded' discs will be bootlegged and will have the ICT removed. Unfortunately, they will sell for slightly more than the regular cost of a Blu-Ray disc because the market is there to do so.
4. Then, more people will discover this crack, the cost of media will come down, and non-analogue HDTV owners will discover this bootleg market. This will create a bootleg market like we've never seen before. In fact, this is the exact opposite of WHY ICT was supposed to be used in the first place!!.
5. Studios will also discover this bootleg market that the ICT created and will be kicking themselves in the butts for years to come.
6. Now the real kicker: since Blu-Ray discs have now been cracked, and there are the two competing formats (HD-DVD and Blu-Ray) will still exist, this will convince ALL of the involved companies in this 'war' to sit down and create a NEW, agreed-upon high definition DVD format. Obviously, this new format will be unlike HD-DVD and Blu-Ray!!

I can see this taking 8 years!

I think most people on here would be hardpressed to tell me I'm wrong with anything in the above statement!!!

[Blue]

Originally Posted by rimgrund

It all has to do with AACS giving studios the CHOICE on whether or not they want to adopt the "Image Constraint Token" (i.e. ICT) which will downgrade 1080p analogue output to 540p (half the resolution we paid for!).

I agree that the studios will impose everything they can with AACS - however this is bcomming less of an issue with analogue - especially at 1080p as there are very few 1080p sets out there and all the new 1080p sets that will come from now on will have HDMI (with HDCP). There are a number of 720p sets that do have this problem, but as far as percentages go these are now bcoming such a minority as to be of no concern to the studios (however a big concern to the owners)

Originally Posted by rimgrund

It 1. Major studios WILL in fact downgrade the 1080p signal to 540p for analogue output. Remember: they don't HAVE to; according to AACS, they have the choice.!).

Without a doubt I agree.

Originally Posted by rimgrund

It 2. A hacker will find a way to get around the encryption in the HDMI signal. There will be a 'rush' to get this done because hackers realize that once they crack the encyption, they can create discs for analogue TV owners, as they will have the ability to remove the ICT from any disc.!).

It depends on a number of things - if for pirate movie distribution at any quality - most will use a master from a DVD, as the quality is almost the same and just put the BD menu system on the front. You are now going to get a new breed of hacker - that is going to crack it, because it's there to be cracked. I can see software applications appearing very quickly.

Originally Posted by rimgrund

It 3. At first, only 'downgraded' discs will be bootlegged and will have the ICT removed. Unfortunately, they will sell for slightly more than the regular cost of a Blu-Ray disc because the market is there to do so. !).

This was not the case with DVD. Most people will be happy as long as they distribute the movie around the house and take the disk to friends place - which managed copy is supposed to allow. I will reserve the right to change my views once we see what sort of a creature managed copy is.

Originally Posted by rimgrund

It 4. Then, more people will discover this crack, the cost of media will come down, and non-analogue HDTV owners will discover this bootleg market. This will create a bootleg market like we've never seen before. In fact, this is the exact opposite of WHY ICT was supposed to be used in the first place!!.!).

This will become more irrelevent as the percentage of non HDMI TV's fall. Again this is dependent on Managed Copy for me to make up my mind, but I don't think there will be a big market - only the same thing as now with DVD's - the priate copies are cheap - but REALLY NASTY quality.

Originally Posted by rimgrund

It 5. Studios will also discover this bootleg market that the ICT created and will be kicking themselves in the butts for years to come.!).

If this is such a big problem there will be hardware solutions around it, HDMI - component converters will become common.

Originally Posted by rimgrund

It 6. Now the real kicker: since Blu-Ray discs have now been cracked, and there are the two competing formats (HD-DVD and Blu-Ray) will still exist, this will convince ALL of the involved companies in this 'war' to sit down and create a NEW, agreed-upon high definition DVD format.!).

I'm certain there will be all sorts of threats to BD - I however predict the HD-DVD vs BD war will be over with 18 months of the full release (so about 2 years from now). There will be many unhappy people who have bought HD-DVD (I'm making this predication based on the size of the industry support behind both formats - 8 studios supporting BD, 1 supporting HD, the rest supporting both - harware companies are nearly all BD). The studios and hardware manfacturers will want to keep selling - so they will want a new format. As far as the consumer is concerned they only change when they can see a real benifit. While TV sets remained small the low resolution of PAL & NTSC was fine hence VCR's were around for a long time. DVD's took off as they were convienient (no rewind etc), the TV's were growing in size and DVD offered a higher quality. The next step forward in HD is apparently the 4K standard (2K is similar to 1080p according to a previous thread) however most homes will be stuck with screens 100" or smaller so apparently you will see little advantage from a the higher resolution.[/QUOTE]

Originally Posted by rimgrund

It I think most people on here would be hardpressed to tell me I'm wrong with anything in the above statement!!!

Don't think so.
Welcome. You will find lots of differing views here. Many people having worked in various parts of the industry and lots of people that do enourmous ammounts of research. Enjoy!!!

[rimgrund]

Excellent response, although I do disagree. The market for bootleg Blu-Rays will FAR surpass the current black market for DVDs. And like the black market for DVDs, there will be bootleggers out there who will sell legitimate bootleg Blu-Rays aimed at the analogue-only crowd - at the start at least. Just wait and see!

Although the percentage of HDTV owners who have analogue-only inputs will undoubtedly get smaller with time, the fact that Blu-Ray and HD-DVD are turning their backs on this particular audience, will spell disaster! It's a shame that ALL this can be averted by the movie studios just stating that they are choosing NOT to downgrade their qualities, and thus, STOP from rendering numberous HDTV sets across the country from becoming basically inoperable!

Hopefully they still have this conversation on here 2 years from now so we can come back and re-evaluate who had the best foresight. I'd be interested to see!! I do like your predicition that hackers may actually choose to create an HDMI-component convertor as a way around this. Alternatively, I could even see a company coming out with a Blu-Ray PLAYER that lacks the ICT controls. After all, there is nothing illegal with creating a bootleg Blu-Ray player and just not use the name Blu-Ray!!

Once again, thanks for the articulate response - always nice to hear someone else's viewpoint on things.

[thunderhawk]

What I wonder is, why does AACS slow down the release of Blu-ray Disc, while it doesn't slow down the HD DVD release.
What really comes up in front here is, what is AACS? I believe this lack of information, will hold back the early-adopters to adopt the format in the beginning.

[Gorkab]

Here comes HVD...