a blast from the past...

[Jish]

So the weekends are slow for news and I was poking around on The Digital Bits and found this in the archives of Bill Hunt's column.

This is from May 2005 but I think it reads as is if could have been written today - very well thought out!

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/mytwocentsa103.html

I'm going to go out in a limb right now and post something that some of you may consider a bit controversial. But I think the writing is on the wall. I think the format war is over before it's even begun, and the Toshiba/HD-DVD camp is toast.

Why? You know how many PlayStation 2 systems Sony's sold since that unit's launch? 87 million. Let me repeat that. 87 million. 1.5 million were sold in the PS2's first month of availability alone.

Now, let me follow this up by noting that Microsoft's newly announced Xbox 360 system is going to run on existing DVD media (for games and movies), but will not support HD-DVD format discs.

All of this is about what we expected, based on rumors as to what Sony and Microsoft were planning for their systems. But it's a very bad omen for the HD-DVD camp. Sony, within a few months of the time they expect to launch movies on their Blu-ray Disc format, is going to have several million machines on the market capable of playing them. Tens of millions by the end of the first year. And each of those machines is going to be more than capable of driving high-end HD displays. What is the HD-DVD camp going to have in that timeframe? Not even a fraction of that number of dedicated players.

Sony has the two biggest PC manufacturers in the world, Dell and HP, on their side, along with Apple, Hitachi, LG, Matsushita, Mitsubishi, Pioneer, Royal Philips, Samsung, Sharp and Thompson. Plus they've 20th Century Fox, Disney, Sony Pictures (Columbia TriStar) and now MGM in their camp... AND they've got the PS3 on the way.

Toshiba has Microsoft in their camp, sort of. On the hardware front, they have NEC, Sanyo and Memory-Tech. And in Hollywood, they've got Warner, New Line, Paramount and Universal.

Think about that. If I'm a high-end, home theater-phile, early adopter type, am I going to be jonesing to get my hands on a Sanyo or Toshiba HD-DVD player, or a Sony or Pioneer Blu-ray Disc player (or a PS3)? Are you kidding me?

This thing is over. It's done. Toshiba and Warner Bros. just haven't figured it out yet.

There's word today (including this story at Technology News) that Toshiba is reluctant to back down from support of its 0.6 mm data layer format (DVD/HD-DVD) for fear of angering its supporters in the DVD camp, some of which have already been gearing up to replicate discs based on 0.6 mm. Here's my take: Get the hell over it, folks.

Reuters is now reporting that the presidents of both Toshiba and Sony are going to meet to try to break the stalemate in the format unification talks (reported yesterday). That's a very good thing, but Toshiba had better open their eyes and realize that a unified format based on the 0.1 mm Blu-ray Disc structure is probably the BEST thing that can happen for them. Because I'm telling you right now, if Toshiba backs away completely and this format war DOES happen, Toshiba's going to lose big. By working with Sony now, and making a few concessions to unite these two formats, Toshiba is going to be in a much better position a couple of years from now than they would be if they try to go it alone with HD-DVD.