Panasonic says Blu-ray will win the war by New Year Day

[mcy_999]

http://www.news.com/8301-10784_3-9789392-7.html

This year?

[w_tanoto]

let's hope so

[SS316SRV]

He downplayed Paramount Pictures' commitment to release movies on HD DVD exclusively, saying it only lasts for 18 months, and argues that studios are going with HD DVD "because big money came" to them. (Microsoft, Toshiba and Intel are the main backers of HD DVD.)

Oh snap...

[Copywriter]

As much as I'd like to see this, it won't happen.

Also, you need to discount the words of people with an agenda (like being on one side).

If WB goes BLU, then it's a done deal. BLU will have too many major studios.

If you pay attention to larger chains like BB, you can see the undercurrents quietly moving in BLUs direction.

The holiday season will see loads of cheap HD DVD players sold and that will mean a surge in HD DVDs sold.

When WB goes BLU only, HD DVD owners will realize that the content isn't there anymore and the switch will be on.

[bhampton]

I get the feeling some die-hard HD DUD supporters will stick to DVD upconvertion when HD DUD goes away next year.

I also think it has been over for some time (pretty much since the PS3 came out) but by Jan 1st most people will be able to recognize it and demand for HD DUD will approach zero with quickness.

[w_tanoto]

Originally Posted by bhampton

I get the feeling some die-hard HD DUD supporters will stick to DVD upconvertion when HD DUD goes away next year.

even if they do that, there will be mass adoption for BD, and they just like an ancient men living in a cave

[Xerious]

the $399 PS3 and with Panasonic guarenteeing a price drop across the board on hardware... it'll be an interesting picture new years day. it'll definately be a blu-christmas... and a blu-new year. i am buying a new s300 for christmas to help out . do your part in destroying the Huge Disaster Digital Venom Disc

[sodrock]

Originally Posted by bhampton

I get the feeling some die-hard HD DUD supporters will stick to DVD upconvertion when HD DUD goes away next year.

I also think it has been over for some time (pretty much since the PS3 came out) but by Jan 1st most people will be able to recognize it and demand for HD DUD will approach zero with quickness.

All 150k of them. Big whoop.

[SuprSlow]

I think the title of that article is misleading.

I assume this is the part of the article he is taking that from:

By the end of the Christmas season or the end of the first quarter, the writing will be on the wall. The format war in earnest may last only another year, he predicted.

That doesn't exactly mean "by NYD", IMO.

[tron3]

woo hoo. My favorite line of the article. "(Microsoft, Toshiba and Intel are the main backers of HD DVD.)" Why? Just knowing that Microsoft can't buy its way to success everytime.

I wish that Panasonic exec didn't announce it so openly. This only gives Toshiba a way to counteract. Everything blu-ray does to win should just suddenly spring out.

Don't give them an insite to damage control.

[mystiksuicide]

Originally Posted by bhampton

I get the feeling some die-hard HD DUD supporters will stick to DVD upconvertion when HD DUD goes away next year.

I disagree early adapters no matter what side of the fence you are on are people who love technology and they're friends pretty much know it. They don't want to left in the dark they will just deny the where ever in the hd dvd camp

Besides blu was created to one day replace DVD's what then thy go back to VHS??

[crunchywyte]

I wonder how this is being spun over at HDD and AVS, I am sure Treadstone has a good explanation about how this doesn't hurt HDDUD at all...LOL

[Blu Titan]

More great news (Blu-ray player price cuts). This is going to be so much fun.

[BluOgre]

Originally Posted by Copywriter

The holiday season will see loads of cheap HD DVD players sold and that will mean a surge in HD DVDs sold.

This point I disagree with.

First off the words cheap and highdef do not go hand in hand. Your telling me a person with an expensive Highdef TV and willing to pay almost 70% more to buy the same DVD title on highdef is just waiting for this cheap HD player to jump into highdef DVD?

If people are so $$$ conscious as you seem to think.....what do you think is going to happen when they go buy a title at BestBuy. They'll see New Releases on DVD at $16.99 - $19.99. They'll see the same title on HD for $29.99 - $34.99. Then lets go to cataloge titles.....some are $5-$10. Now see the HD version, $24.99-$29.99. Come on, this myth that people are just waiting for a cheap player is a myth. If $100 or $200 was that big of a deal....they are spending that much more after buying 10 highdef discs lol.

Bottom line is either you have the money to spend on the new format or not. It's not just the player you have to look at, ALL the software is much more expensive than the DVD counterparts. My guess is Wal-Mart knows this and understands the point.....hence they are reportly not going to carry the cheap players and my guess it's because more than likely their customers won't buy it.

I still don't understand what a cheap HD player is supposed to do. The people that can afford the highpriced software, HD TV's, WiFi, Surround Sound, ect... are not usually the ones looking for the ultra cheap players. The people this cheap player is targeting probably don't even own an HD TV yet.

[Rike255]

Originally Posted by BluOgre

This point I disagree with.

First off the words cheap and highdef do not go hand in hand. Your telling me a person with an expensive Highdef TV and willing to pay almost 70% more to buy the same DVD title on highdef is just waiting for this cheap HD player to jump into highdef DVD?

If people are so $$$ conscious as you seem to think.....what do you think is going to happen when they go buy a title at BestBuy. They'll see New Releases on DVD at $16.99 - $19.99. They'll see the same title on HD for $29.99 - $34.99. Then lets go to cataloge titles.....some are $5-$10. Now see the HD version, $24.99-$29.99. Come on, this myth that people are just waiting for a cheap player is a myth. If $100 or $200 was that big of a deal....they are spending that much more after buying 10 highdef discs lol.

Bottom line is either you have the money to spend on the new format or not. It's not just the player you have to look at, ALL the software is much more expensive than the DVD counterparts. My guess is Wal-Mart knows this and understands the point.....hence they are reportly not going to carry the cheap players and my guess it's because more than likely their customers won't buy it.

I still don't understand what a cheap HD player is supposed to do. The people that can afford the highpriced software, HD TV's, WiFi, Surround Sound, ect... are not usually the ones looking for the ultra cheap players. The people this cheap player is targeting probably don't even own an HD TV yet.

I agree with you. And also, the $250 player (well $199 but its selling for $250) isn't THAT far off the Blu-Ray players. It's not like a difference like that will make or break a wallet...and if it does, then that person is in no position to be buying High def anyways.

[Copywriter]

Originally Posted by BluOgre

This point I disagree with.

First off the words cheap and highdef do not go hand in hand. Your telling me a person with an expensive Highdef TV and willing to pay almost 70% more to buy the same DVD title on highdef is just waiting for this cheap HD player to jump into highdef DVD?

If people are so $$$ conscious as you seem to think.....what do you think is going to happen when they go buy a title at BestBuy. They'll see New Releases on DVD at $16.99 - $19.99. They'll see the same title on HD for $29.99 - $34.99. Then lets go to cataloge titles.....some are $5-$10. Now see the HD version, $24.99-$29.99. Come on, this myth that people are just waiting for a cheap player is a myth. If $100 or $200 was that big of a deal....they are spending that much more after buying 10 highdef discs lol.

Bottom line is either you have the money to spend on the new format or not. It's not just the player you have to look at, ALL the software is much more expensive than the DVD counterparts. My guess is Wal-Mart knows this and understands the point.....hence they are reportly not going to carry the cheap players and my guess it's because more than likely their customers won't buy it.

I still don't understand what a cheap HD player is supposed to do. The people that can afford the highpriced software, HD TV's, WiFi, Surround Sound, ect... are not usually the ones looking for the ultra cheap players. The people this cheap player is targeting probably don't even own an HD TV yet.

Do some more market research. Many in the mass market are buying HD TVs, because they are now just over $1,000 on average (for decent ones). And some are buying 720p sets, which are even less.

Money is always a factor. And excuse me, but I see lots of HD DVD titles at Amazon for $18-$20 and many at BB for $24. I'm not sure how that's a 70% increase over SD new releases, which run $15-$23.

And rental options and titles (a mass market favorite) are increasing.

Look at DVD. The reason why the mass market finally adopted it was because prices of players drop from $700 down to the $200 range.

You're assuming those in the mass market are buying $5k TVs and all the goodies. This is not so.

BTW, I'm referring to the American market, which is the one that counts. My years of experience in marketing, research, etc are in this market with only "tastes" of foreign markets in comparison.

Look through consumer history and you'll see that consumers are willing to pay much more for the TV, but less for the devices. For those spending $800-$1200 on a HD TV, spending $450+ on a drive is unacceptable.

And the market is used to DVD pricing.

There are a lot of forces and conventions at work in the MASS market. None of which include which format is actually better in a technical sense.

Inexpensive HD DVD players ($200ish or less) are targeted toward the mass market. Once you get the mass market to adopt the technology, you can progress the toward higher level products and services. Doing it in reverse doesn't work.

There's more here than just some gamers going at it over formats.

But, that's just my take--for better or worse.

[radagast]

Originally Posted by bhampton

I get the feeling some die-hard HD DUD supporters will stick to DVD upconvertion when HD DUD goes away next year.

And I'm sure the hd-dud fanboys won't be able to tell the difference in PQ between upconversion of SDs and hd-dud.

[clyon]

Originally Posted by nyg

If Blu-ray wants to end this thing quickly they need to get permission from Spielberg to release more of his films on BD. That and get Lucas on board with the Star Wars series and this thing's over! Okay neither of these will happen until there's a lot more players in homes but how about Disney, where's the animated classics? Screw that one classic per year crap.

George Lucas is working on 3D StarWars, so we are not going to hear anything from him until next year, after the 30th anniversary.

[saljr]

Paramount Pictures you screw yourself. The HD-DVD camp are . I can't see then go to a electronic store and buying Blu-Ray player and movies. LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL and we told you not to buy HD-DVD. Kids will never learn.

[Aaron]

Found this in my Swanni Says newsletter. Seems very interesting!

Panasonic: Blu-ray Close to Victory
CE executive downplays Paramount's endorsement of rival HD DVD.
By Swanni

Washington, D.C. (October 2, 2007) -- A top Panasonic executive today said Blu-ray could defeat high-def disc rival HD DVD by the end of the year.

That's according to an article at CNET.com.

Kazuhiro Tsuga, who runs Matsushita's home electronics unit, says Blu-ray manufacturers will soon sharply cut player prices and launch a major promotional effort for the format. (Matsushita is the parent of Panasonic.)

The two actions will give Blu-ray a wide lead over HD DVD by the end of the holiday season or by the end of the first quarter, he said, according to CNET.

Apparently, according to Tsuga, HD DVD backers, led by Toshiba, would then be forced to either drop out of the battle and/or negotiate an agreement with the Blu-ray forces for a single format.

"The BD (Blu-ray disc) companies will try to do our best to promote Blu-ray," he said. "The studios want us to put money in to promote it...By the end of the year, you will see good products with very good promotion."

The lowest-priced Blu-ray player (Sony) is now $499 -- $200 more than Toshiba's entry-level $299 HD DVD. Consequently, HD DVD leads in overall standalone player sales.

However, thanks to the PlayStation 3, which has a Blu-ray player inside, Blu-ray has enjoyed a 2-1 advantage in disc sales.

Many industry analysts have said Blu-ray could pull away if Blu-ray manufacturers dropped their player prices to under $300.

However, despite those predictions, others say the war is destined to last at least another year because of Paramount's decision in August to endorse HD DVD exclusively. The studio joined Universal as studios that back HD DVD exclusively while four major studios support Blu-ray exclusively.

Tsuga, however, downplayed Paramount's commitment, suggesting the studio was paid off to back HD DVD.

Source