Packaged Media Far From Dead -- HMM

[Teazle]

... sez TK

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/tks...media-far-dead

[wormraper]

you mean streaming media ISN'T going to take over in 2 months!!!??? oh *gasp, how did I not see this coming

[Dynamo of Eternia]

It makes perfect sense to me!

Streaming, Red Box, etc are all great alternatives to old fashioned renting (going to a physical video rental store), but for ownership I don't think anything will trump physical media, certainly not for a long time.

And I think the article has it right about the right price, especially for older titles (those that have been out for a long time and/or catalog titles). Many people who already own a movie on DVD are going to be hesitant to rebuy it on Blu-Ray at $15, $20, or more. Sure something like Star Wars is going to sell with little to no trouble at a higher price, but not a lot of people are going to be in a rush to upgrade Happy Gilmore (as a random example) for a high price.

[ZoetMB]

There are several issues.

That guy wrote an opinion piece backed up by no facts whatsoever. He thinks sales are good (or could be good) because he observed a lot of people buying bargain basement titles on Black Friday. That's very misleading. There's a video of a large, unruly crowd rushing into a Walmart on Black Friday. If all you looked at was that video, you would think that there's nothing wrong with the economy as all these people are trampling each other for the right to purchase trashy products.

Most heavily discounted items on Black Friday don't make any money for retailers - they lose money. Their purpose is to get you into the store so that in addition to purchasing the loss leader, you buy something else. But in a still tight economy, people are looking just for the bargains.

The other issue is that the studios are training consumers to devalue the perception of what a movie is worth. When you sell lots of titles for $7 (some even less), they balk at paying $25 or more for a new release. And IMO, RedBox is an even bigger disaster, because it leaves the impression that a movie is only worth $2.

The studios simply don't make very much money when titles are priced low. Don't forget that they sell to distributors at almost half the list price and directly to retailers at about 65% of list. Throw in packaging costs, distribution costs, mastering, license fees and/or residuals and there's not much left. Most of the low-priced catalog items are there simply to generate cash flow, not profits.

And while streaming isn't taking over physical media just yet, physical media is not doing all that well. Through 11/24, Blu-ray sales in dollars are just 5.17% ahead of last year. Last year at this time, Blu-ray sales were 26.14% ahead of 2010 and in 2010, they were 35% ahead of 2009. A decline in growth is normal for a new medium, but a 5% sales increase for a medium which is still not yet mature (BD sales are only 25.8% of the physical media market) is a very bad sign.

In fact, if sales don't pick up in the weeks leading up to Xmas, we could actually come in lower than last year's $2.011 billion.

One reason is that there is far more competition for leisure time than there ever has been before. The market is getting so fragmented that no one media or channel is getting much of an audience.

[Anthony P]

And while streaming isn't taking over physical media just yet, physical media is not doing all that well. Through 11/24, Blu-ray sales in dollars are just 5.17% ahead of last year.

where did you get that number from? just asking since the last DEG report had BD growth at 13% at Q3.

Last year at this time, Blu-ray sales were 26.14% ahead of 2010 and in 2010, they were 35% ahead of 2009. A decline in growth is normal for a new medium, but a 5% sales increase for a medium which is still not yet mature (BD sales are only 25.8% of the physical media market) is a very bad sign.

I agree that a decline is normal, but not the rest. First of all if new releases sell well more in the new format that the other (some as high as 3 copies of the new one for every copy of the second one) I find it a bit of joke of not calling it mature. On the other hand you agree that at a certain point it does not make sense to assume the same growth % but then you dismiss it for no reason.

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

where did you get that number from? just asking since the last DEG report had BD growth at 13% at Q3.

It's calculated from the sum of HMM's numbers YTD. Are HMM's numbers accurate? Who knows? They keep on correcting the prior year's numbers, so it's hard to tell.

Originally Posted by Anthony P

I agree that a decline is normal, but not the rest. First of all if new releases sell well more in the new format that the other (some as high as 3 copies of the new one for every copy of the second one) I find it a bit of joke of not calling it mature. On the other hand you agree that at a certain point it does not make sense to assume the same growth % but then you dismiss it for no reason.

It depends upon how you define maturity. One way of looking at it is that a medium is not mature until growth slows or declines. From that perspective, one could say that BD is mature (although critics would say that it never actually reached maturity).

The other way to look at it is by market share. You can pick your own percentage number, but let's assume for purposes of this discussion that a medium is mature when it hits a 50% market share. In that case, BD is immature because it only has a 26% share of the physical market (and a much smaller share of the overall home media market).

But definitions don't really matter.

What matters are the actual numbers and what HMM's numbers tell us is that BD has only a 25.8% US dollar share of the physical market and that dollar growth YTD is only 5.17% ahead of last year.

The only debate is whether that's good performance or bad performance. IMO, it's bad performance. (Which doesn't actually surprise me since quality usually doesn't sell well to the mass market.)

To date (11/24), BD has sold $1715.23 million. The total US physical market YTD is $6659.8 million. In 2009, it was $8681.15 million US YTD. So we're seeing huge declines in the US market for physical media. You can blame it on declining prices, bad movies, competition for leisure time, downloading (whether legal or illegal), the decline of independent physical retail, too many titles to choose from, more HD channels on cable or satellite, BD purchasers giving away or selling their DVD copies or download codes or whatever you'd like, but it doesn't change the current reality.

In the end, the studios will not continue support for the medium (and especially not invest in restorations and remasters) unless it sells. What every executive (of almost any business) is asked to do is "provide shareholder value". That's easy to do when you have increasing revenues/profits. If you can't do it because growth is so slow, the company will move its investment to something else. While $2 billion in annual sales sounds like a lot of money, it's actually very little when split among all the studios. And remember, that's sales at the retail level. The studios wind up with half of that.

[Steedeel]

Zoett, you seem to suggest that bluray will be dropped soon. Even i dont worry about that happening this quick. Electronic sell through is a complete failure imo, so there is nothing to take over. Streaming packages may eventually be the successor but profits are slim are they not? We may end up with a rental market for downloads/streaming. However, there will be no rush.

[Teazle]

To me the thrust of the article is that though physical sell-through remains strong overall, mid-priced editions are on the way out. For BD this is the sign of a maturing format, bad economy or both; for DVD it's been that way for years.

Right now there's mainly room for bare-bones/multipacks/budget eds. on the low end and deluxe collectors' eds on the high end; author basically says studios need to keep hitting these notes loud as the middle is squeezed. Will be interesting to see how things go through the holiday season.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

It's calculated from the sum of HMM's numbers YTD. Are HMM's numbers accurate? Who knows? They keep on correcting the prior year's numbers, so it's hard to tell.

HMM's numbers are the early VS numbers with some assumptions added in. Like you pointed out, they go back and correct prior years numbers, so you know they can't be accurate.

They Are they good for early numbers, and a fun weekly discussion? but don't forget that "error" increrases with each manipulation, so for every week that passes you run tyhe risk to be farther and farther from the truth (i.e. 5 ± 1 + 5±1= 10±2). There is also the fact of precision (there are not too many decimal places) so there is aded error there that can happen. Also it would depend what calculation you use. Did you try comparing your result to that of DEGs end of Q3?
[quote]

The other way to look at it is by market share. You can pick your own percentage number, but let's assume for purposes of this discussion that a medium is mature when it hits a 50% market share. In that case, BD is immature because it only has a 26% share of the physical market (and a much smaller share of the overall home media market).

agree, but the market share of Prometheus was 76% BD and for Avengers it was 72% that is a lot more telling then the total revenue. The total revenue will always be more bias. For example, if someone bought a 3$ DVD in order to get 10$ off of Prometheus BD in "Trade and Save"( go check the deals section to see that people did that) not only would it neadlessly add to the Total DVD revenue but take away from the total BD revenue.

What matters are the actual numbers and what HMM's numbers tell us is that BD has only a 25.8% US dollar share of the physical market and that dollar growth YTD is only 5.17% ahead of last year.

but they are not actual numbers and you are trying hard to find a down side by looking at the most negative ones you can find.

The only debate is whether that's good performance or bad performance. IMO, it's bad performance. (Which doesn't actually surprise me since quality usually doesn't sell well to the mass market.)

it never surprises me either, when someoine that starts with a notion that they can find some twisted numbers that he can use to further his opinion.

So we're seeing huge declines in the US market for physical media. You can blame it on declining prices, bad movies, competition for leisure time, downloading (whether legal or illegal), the decline of independent physical retail, too many titles to choose from, more HD channels on cable or satellite, BD purchasers giving away or selling their DVD copies or download codes or whatever you'd like, but it doesn't change the current reality.

agree, but the discusssion was not about the reality of the movie buisness as a whole but about phisical media and BD. And BD's growth in sales is a lot more than EST.

In the end, the studios will not continue support for the medium (and especially not invest in restorations and remasters) unless it sells. What every executive (of almost any business) is asked to do is "provide shareholder value". That's easy to do when you have increasing revenues/profits. If you can't do it because growth is so slow, the company will move its investment to something else. While $2 billion in annual sales sounds like a lot of money, it's actually very little when split among all the studios. And remember, that's sales at the retail level. The studios wind up with half of that.

so do you beleive there will be no more movies? You discribed the whole industry. Either the industry as a whole dissapears and then this is moot (just like someone saying the end of the world will come in a few days) or the fact that there is good growth in a smaller market as a whole means that it is the most logical choice moving forward (and so it is good)

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

but they are not actual numbers and you are trying hard to find a down side by looking at the most negative ones you can find.

That's ZoetMB for you. From the day he got here he has always been the guy to post bad news, and has not once posted good news.

He's the guy who posted that Blu-Ray numbers were bad YOY on Avatar week for cryin' out loud.

His agenda is 100% to make Blu-Ray look bad. I don't know why, especially since he attempts to do this on a Blu-Ray enthusiast web site. I'm sure he feels he's "balancing the site" or "keeping it real" or some other Troll logic.

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

That's ZoetMB for you. From the day he got here he has always been the guy to post bad news, and has not once posted good news.

He's the guy who posted that Blu-Ray numbers were bad YOY on Avatar week for cryin' out loud.

His agenda is 100% to make Blu-Ray look bad. I don't know why, especially since he attempts to do this on a Blu-Ray enthusiast web site. I'm sure he feels he's "balancing the site" or "keeping it real" or some other Troll logic.

Nope. It's not about looking good or bad. It's about facts and business analysis, which I do every day for a living. I didn't cherry-pick numbers. Cherry picking numbers is picking out a title or two that did extremely well on BD and saying, "look how great BD is doing".

The numbers are the sum total year-to-date of what HMM has posted week after week. If you want to make an argument that HMMs numbers are wrong, then provide some facts to demonstrate that their numbers are wrong. I don't make these numbers up.

It's not trolling when it's based on facts and not opinion. I could call you the troll, even though you're a BD fanboy, because you are expressing opinions that are almost never based upon facts.

Your analysis is based upon how fanboys feel. My analysis is based upon how business executives think.

BD is a great medium. I love BD. That doesn't mean it's selling well this year. I love vinyl records. It doesn't mean they're selling well. I love some very fine restaurants. It doesn't mean they're going to stay in business.

[Penton-Man]

I’ve never personally had any problem with you….except for -

just reading your Signature reminded me to go back and check a post I made in the 3D forum as to whether I typed ‘adopt’ or adapt.

Later

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

Nope. It's not about looking good or bad. It's about facts and business analysis, which I do every day for a living. I didn't cherry-pick numbers. Cherry picking numbers is picking out a title or two that did extremely well on BD and saying, "look how great BD is doing".

It is cherry picking and you do it all the time https://forum.blu-ray.com/showpost.p...postcount=2765

we will see next week if you will be here discussing the HMM numbers when we have the TDK week or if you will go back into hiding until the next time you can do yousr gloom and doom scenario.

As for "individual titles. It is not that, but the simple reality that in 2010 the best a new release could do was ~1 BD for each DVD, in 2011 it was ~2:1 and in 2012 we have already surpassed 3:1

The numbers are the sum total year-to-date of what HMM has posted week after week. If you want to make an argument that HMMs numbers are wrong, then provide some facts to demonstrate that their numbers are wrong. I don't make these numbers up.

actualy they are your calculations based on HMM numbers, and not HMMs numbers. You also admited that " They keep on correcting the prior year's numbers" if they were not wrong they would not need to do that (you can't correct something that is not wrong.

It's not trolling when it's based on facts and not opinion. I could call you the troll, even though you're a BD fanboy, because you are expressing opinions that are almost never based upon facts.

I don’t know, I felt he pointed out facts in his thread ( you did wait for the equivalent week to Avatar to show that BD was not doing well. On the other hand a troll by definition is someone that makes comments in order to get a negative reaction by the general users of a site, how does him pointing out you are a troll annoy anyone but you?

Your analysis is based upon how fanboys feel. My analysis is based upon how business executives think.

I am guessing you are limiting yourself to clueless executives that bankrupt their company

BD is a great medium. I love BD. That doesn't mean it's selling well this year. I love vinyl records. It doesn't mean they're selling well. I love some very fine restaurants. It doesn't mean they're going to stay in business.

Lol, you are so right , BD is on its death bed why would a studio want to sell 3x more copies then all the other mediums and at a premium price that is way more profitable.

[lobosrul]

I think this is highly relative to the conversation:

http://www.thehdroom.com/news/Kaleid...pe-Store/11790

Kaleidescape to offer full BD downloads, exact same functionality and quality as the actual disc, but only from Warner Bros. Of course their system is ridiculously expensive, and its only one studio, plus Ultraviolet.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by lobosrul

I think this is highly relative to the conversation:

http://www.thehdroom.com/news/Kaleid...pe-Store/11790

Kaleidescape to offer full BD downloads, exact same functionality and quality as the actual disc, but only from Warner Bros. Of course their system is ridiculously expensive, and its only one studio, plus Ultraviolet.

don't see how, this is just one more DL service. And out of all of them, the one I would probably think of the least "threatening". Like you said it is only one studio and it only works with their ridiculously expensive system.
I see this more of a response to http://www.digital-digest.com/news-6...eal-Filed.html
where the courts decided that they had to stop manufacturing and selling their product even while they appeal. By going DL they won’t be breaking the law. And if they went with any other service, why would people pay $$$$ for their box.

[Teazle]

In a kind of follow-up piece, the author claims that so far from being "dead" or on the way out, high-priced box sets in the home video industry are selling "better than ever":

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/pro...p-giving-29088

A tidbit from WB, quote:

"Ron Sanders, president of Warner Home Video, said that last year a premium-priced Dark Knight gift set with a toy Batmobile, with a limited pressing of 35,000 units, took eight weeks to sell out.

“This year, a comparable Dark Knight Rises gift set with a mask, also produced in a limited 35,000-unit run, sold out in a single day,” Sanders said.
Indeed, this holiday season Warner Home Video — pioneer as well as leader in the premium gift set game — reports that the industry is seeing 31% of the Blu-ray catalog business driven by high-priced (over $25) product.

End quote

[Mr.Poindexter]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

don't see how, this is just one more DL service. And out of all of them, the one I would probably think of the least "threatening". Like you said it is only one studio and it only works with their ridiculously expensive system.
I see this more of a response to http://www.digital-digest.com/news-6...eal-Filed.html
where the courts decided that they had to stop manufacturing and selling their product even while they appeal. By going DL they won’t be breaking the law. And if they went with any other service, why would people pay $$$$ for their box.

Kaleidescape is in fact still able to manufacture and sell their product during the appeal process.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by Mr.Poindexter

Kaleidescape is in fact still able to manufacture and sell their product during the appeal process.

you are right, but it is a matter of time.