Upcoming weeks, what do you predict?

[Iron Man]

New Blu-ray exclusive release
New HD-DVD exclusive release

[MOONPHASE]

Since Blu-Ray has more titles coming out then Hd-Dvd i would say Blu-Ray still has the advantage

[w_tanoto]

BD will sell better, but beware of transformer. It might sell as much as 2-3BD.

[Icemage]

Blu-ray will probably lose week 42 due to Transformers. Possibly week 43 as well due to residual sales. All other weeks should see Blu-ray winning, however.

[bhampton]

Great post,...

I predict

- The $199 HD DVD won't happen in stores but maybe mail order (with additional shipping cost.) Since returned (rejected) Toshiba players sell for $249 already the imact won't be what the Red crowd was looking for.

-Black Friday sales includes High Def Optical for the first time with both deals on hardware and software.

-Blu Ray continues to outsell HD DVD and as soon as the 1 year mark of persistant sales dominance that very fact will be used for marketing Blu

-I will have a terrible time trying to determine what not to buy on Blu Ray since there's far too many new releases that I want.

-TL51 HD DVD discs will remain a publicity stunt

-Paramount will continue to be a non-factor in sales (Blu Ray is still making gains after the defection.)

That's all I got thus far.

[The Guardian]

Anyone else planning to buy all 8 movies on Week 45?

I believe the Transformers week will be a 55:45 win for HD DVD but we have enough coming out the next week to reverse the trend right back to at worst parity, and then the week after that of course we can get back into the 60's. By week 45 we could be in the 70's.

[RobertB]

Well, I'll be buying about 50% of those blu titles thats for sure (as long as they are region free).

[GTP]

BD will win every week in 07.
The 18th, dud will close the gap but not lead.
After that it will be BD at 70-80% through the holidays as dud sales have no staying power like Blu does.

[Iron Man]

Originally Posted by bhampton

Great post,...

thanks!

I will add the following weeks later

[Firestreak]

HD DVD has Transformers week on lockdown. It will surprise most people I am betting, like 80% HD DVD sales, because blu-ray and neutral titles that week are weak and that movie is big. Then the very next week will be business as usual. Microsoft woulda done better just taking that 150 million and buying millions of HD DVDs to fill up in landfills.

[MOONPHASE]

even though having transformers hd-dvd exclusive is a big deal but with all of our little ones we have and plus also Spiderman, Ratatouille, Surf's Up, Edward Scissorhands, Robocop, Cars, and Pixar Short Films will bring up the sales a lot. And on that list that didn't even have the movies that are coming out in November or December so no worries for Blu-Ray even with Transformers being Hd-Dvd only

[bhampton]

Dud doesn't have to win the transformers week.

Blu Ray currently has a 60/40 ratio that should be hard to move to 49/51 with just one title alone.

Don't get me wrong the red army has planned to buy a copy of this for everyone they know but I'm going crazy buying Blu that week in hopes we keep the current winning streak alive.

I don't know where the buy-date thread is for that week yet but we could use one. (I don't really like the bully nature of the group buys but it's optional and I think lots want to combat the transformers affect.)

-Brian

[Firestreak]

Consider this.

1. How many Blu-rays are sold on an average week?
2. How many copies would 300 have sold first week as a HD DVD exclusive?

[Teazle]

Originally Posted by Firestreak

2. How many copies would 300 have sold first week as a HD DVD exclusive?

Not terribly many more than it did as a non-exclusive.

[Firestreak]

Yee with lesser install base is thee who benefit most from an exclusive.

Obviously a Blu-ray exlusive of Transformers outsells the shit out of a HD Dvd exclusive of Transformers.

But it's a mathematical certainty that the lesser install base has the most neutrality. As in, a higher percentage of HD DVD owners have a Blu-ray player than Blu-ray players have an HD DVD player. A higher percentage PS3 owners have an Xbox 360 as well than Xbox 360 owners have a PS3 as well. A higher percent of gamecube owners had a PS2 than PS2 owners had a gamecube.

In this sense, when a neutral title goes to blu-ray, they lose all the HD DVD only owners, which is a small population, versus the blu-ray only. Conversely, you can look at it that when HD DVD GAINS an exclusive, they gain the neutral chunk which is more important to them than to blu-ray.

[Anthony P]

HD DVD could take week 42, but I doubt they will take any others. Even for week 42 I don't think HD DVD will do as well as some think.

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by w_tanoto

BD will sell better, but beware of transformer. It might sell as much as 2-3BD.

I think Silver Surfer on Blu will sell more then TF on HD DVD, nevermind Spidey, Pirates, Die Hard, Ratatouille, etc.

[w_tanoto]

Originally Posted by dobyblue

I think Silver Surfer on Blu will sell more then TF on HD DVD, nevermind Spidey, Pirates, Die Hard, Ratatouille, etc.

i agree with that, but I am talking about titles that actually released the same week as transformer. I think though, Die hard will create residual sale on the week of transformer, as well as transformer will create residual sale of the week next to its release (but by this time, we already have something to counter it)

[Blu-Light]

I still don't believe that BD sales have anything to worry about with shrek 3 and transformers. I doubt HD-DVD will catch up EVER.

[Anthony P]

no one is talking catching up., the question is if they will have a week beyond 50%