Enderle with more article fun

[bdrex28]

http://www.technewsworld.com/story/60364.html

This week ends with one of the most important days of the year. It's called "Black Friday," and it could decide the future of a lot of battles and tell us whether this will be a good or bad season economically.

There are two big battles that may actually be decided this week based on initial sales numbers. For Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) Latest News about Microsoft, which had its butt kicked last year by the iPod, this is its chance to show it gets it and to take the fight to Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) Latest News about Apple.

For HD-DVD and Blu-ray, this is when Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) Latest News about Wal-Mart steps in and tries to do to this market what it did to TVs last year. There is a reasonable chance HD-DVD will exit the winner; however, Blu-ray isn't sleeping, and Sony (NYSE: SNE) Latest News about Sony is initially using Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) Latest News about Amazon.com to help its case.

Since Black Friday is when a lot of you will be out buying, I'm going to provide some advice on what to look for and some choices you may not have thought of, and suggest that you not wait until Friday to buy at least one item.

Finally we'll close with one of my favorite products for the year: the new HP (NYSE: HPQ) See the HP Proliant DL380 G5 Server with Systems Insight Manager – Click here. Latest News about Hewlett-Packard Home Server, which has evidently outsold even laptops on Amazon for its first week.
Battle One: Blu-ray vs. HD-DVD

The most widely watched battle that will be fought this Friday is the one between Blu-ray Disc and HD-DVD. To catch you up, right now both platforms are selling well below 10 percent of potential because of the conflict that exists between them. Last year, the two sides went back and forth, with HD-DVD in front at the start Blu-ray in front in the middle, and both basically tied now with momentum back in the HD-DVD camp.

In advance of Black Friday, Blu-ray has launched a two-for-one deal with Amazon, which should push disk sales up sharply. This isn't as good as it initially looks because you can't mix and match between Sony and Disney (NYSE: DIS) films. Still, revenue could actually decline for Blu-ray at the same time depending on whether this results in a doubling of sales volume. Also, PC Blu-ray drives just dropped below $200, which suddenly makes PCs with both HD-DVD and Blu-ray drives a possibility and should push sales on PCs anyway.

However, on Black Friday, Wal-Mart is expected to go very aggressive, with HD-DVD player prices dropping well below $200. While disk sales are important tactically, player sales are strategic. Given that the PS3 isn't expected to be hot this year, if they execute as expected, the battle could drift so solidly into the HD-DVD camp that the fight will be over.

Now, the HD-DVD camp will need a better than 4x sales rate over Blu-ray to do this, but Wal-Mart alone is capable of exceeding this volume and demonstrated that with TVs last year, so this thing could be over by year end. I stress the word "could," however, as the Blu-ray guys clearly see this coming and may not have played all their cards yet. The good news is that under $200, the things aren't that bad a risk.

[ehorrell]

I could put a plate of dirt in front of some HD DVD fans and they would eat it and swear its chocolate.

[The Guardian]

So he thinks HD DVD needs a 4x sales rate to beat Blu? And it's currently 2:1 for Blu. So assuming no more Blu players sell, HD DVD must OCTUPLE (8x) it's install base. And it's going to do this in a single day from Wal-mart alone? Riiiiight.

[Spankey]

Originally Posted by The Guardian

So he thinks HD DVD needs a 4x sales rate to beat Blu? And it's currently 2:1 for Blu. So assuming no more Blu players sell, HD DVD must OCTUPLE (8x) it's install base. And it's going to do this in a single day from Wal-mart alone? Riiiiight.

Now, the HD-DVD camp will need a better than 4x sales rate over Blu-ray to do this, but Wal-Mart alone is capable of exceeding this volume and demonstrated that with TVs last year, so this thing could be over by year end.

Totally laughable. Even if HD-DVD came up with those numbers just to catch up, he assumes that would ice it for HDDVD. Does he really think hardware manufacturers want to sell players for $98.

I can assure you, that if HD-DVD somehow became the format of choice I would NEVER buy a player for more than $100 now.

[ikbradley]

Originally Posted by bdrex28

http://www.technewsworld.com/story/60364.html
This week ends with one of the most important days of the year. It's called "Black Friday," and it could decide the future of a lot of battles and tell us whether this will be a good or bad season economically.


For HD-DVD and Blu-ray, this is when Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) Latest News about Wal-Mart steps in and tries to do to this market what it did to TVs last year. There is a reasonable chance HD-DVD will exit the winner; however, Blu-ray isn't sleeping, and Sony (NYSE: SNE) Latest News about Sony is initially using Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) Latest News about Amazon.com to help its case.


Battle One: Blu-ray vs. HD-DVD

The most widely watched battle that will be fought this Friday is the one between Blu-ray Disc and HD-DVD. To catch you up, right now both platforms are selling well below 10 percent of potential because of the conflict that exists between them. Last year, the two sides went back and forth, with HD-DVD in front at the start Blu-ray in front in the middle, and both basically tied now with momentum back in the HD-DVD camp.

In advance of Black Friday, Blu-ray has launched a two-for-one deal with Amazon, which should push disk sales up sharply. This isn't as good as it initially looks because you can't mix and match between Sony and Disney (NYSE: DIS) films. Still, revenue could actually decline for Blu-ray at the same time depending on whether this results in a doubling of sales volume. Also, PC Blu-ray drives just dropped below $200, which suddenly makes PCs with both HD-DVD and Blu-ray drives a possibility and should push sales on PCs anyway.

However, on Black Friday, Wal-Mart is expected to go very aggressive, with HD-DVD player prices dropping well below $200. While disk sales are important tactically, player sales are strategic. Given that the PS3 isn't expected to be hot this year, if they execute as expected, the battle could drift so solidly into the HD-DVD camp that the fight will be over.

Now, the HD-DVD camp will need a better than 4x sales rate over Blu-ray to do this, but Wal-Mart alone is capable of exceeding this volume and demonstrated that with TVs last year, so this thing could be over by year end. I stress the word "could," however, as the Blu-ray guys clearly see this coming and may not have played all their cards yet. The good news is that under $200, the things aren't that bad a risk.

Wow! Check out those gems put in emphasis. So HD DVD and Blu-ray are tied right now. According to hardware and software? Nope.

PS3 not expected to be hot? According to what? Aside from the Wii, look at its sales compared to every other console sold. The holiday season isn't even here, and its on a par with the 360 after its second Holiday season (2006) .

The Walmart TV strategy is food for thought, that's about it. Also, one has to wonder what he means "not have played all their cards". Of course they haven't. The biggest thing in months has been the BOGO during the Transformers week.

[lztp6k]

He's a little optimistic. Does he think if HD DVD is able to pull off a lead in software sales BDA will just turn over and fold? HD DVD has stayed alive the entire year while being outsold. The same would happen if what he predicts comes true except the BDA would be playing catch-up. An ending to the war is a long way off.

And LOL@"Given that the PS3 isn't expected to be hot this year"

[Deane Johnson]

Remember, Rob Enderle sells his soul to the highest bidder.

[Spankey]

This is also the week of Black Friday. Expect HD-DVD to come out swinging more so than ever before. The formats life depends on it.

[lztp6k]

Originally Posted by Spankey

This is also the week of Black Friday. Expect HD-DVD to come out swinging more so than ever before. The formats life depends on it.

I think the formats life more than depends on one day, it's just not looking great on any other day.

[ikbradley]

Just food for thought, and not really that applicable to the thread, but did the BDA ever consider a trade-in program.

The idea is that on Black Friday and Boxing Day, those with A-2 (or any other model) can trade in and get a PS3 at a substantially discounted price. It's a little mean and kind of funny. Why not go the extra step from the discount, to the super deep discount, deny the competitor an install base (which is heavily subsidized), as well as get a bunch of free-press from the firestorm "droves adopt blu-ray and forsake hd dvd".

It would cost them a pretty penny for a couple of days, but that would definitely provide a kick start in a much needed change of momentum.

[bdrex28]

Originally Posted by ikbradley

Just food for thought, and not really that applicable to the thread, but did the BDA ever consider a trade-in program.

The idea is that on Black Friday and Boxing Day, those with A-2 (or any other model) can trade in and get a PS3 at a substantially discounted price. It's a little mean and kind of funny. Why not go the extra step from the discount, to the super deep discount, deny the competitor an install base (which is heavily subsidized), as well as get a bunch of free-press from the firestorm "droves adopt blu-ray and forsake hd dvd".

It would cost them a pretty penny for a couple of days, but that would definitely provide a kick start in a much needed change of momentum.

That would be hilarious, I wonder what they would do with the A2's though?

[ikbradley]

Originally Posted by bdrex28

That would be hilarious, I wonder what they would do with the A2's though?

Stick them up the ass of that poof from Universal, Kornhole or whatever his name is.

Edit: Graffeo has been added to the list.

[JAGUAR1977]

Given that the PS3 isn't expected to be hot this year, if they execute as expected, the battle could drift so solidly into the HD-DVD camp that the fight will be over.

Funny, everything I read says the PS3 is going to be one of the hot items this Christmas, with the lower price and quality games coming on stream!

[atomik kinder]

Oh darn, the Wal-Mart Black Friday ad is up. Wal-Mart No sign of HD DVD anywhere.

[E-Dogg]

Originally Posted by bdrex28

http://www.technewsworld.com/story/60364.html

The PS3 is selling like hotcakes and so are Blu-Ray disks. This guy is so full of crap that it's coming out of his eyeballs.

[Nicadian]

No it's not in walmart is at amazon.com and hd dvd is outselling blu ray discs and they have 199 for the a3 .

[atomik kinder]

This must be Toshiba's newest move. How many reporters can you buy off to say HD DVD is going to bring it around this Christmas. To bad this guy didn't realize that Wal-Mart is offering no HD DVD deals this Black Friday.

[ps3andlovinit]

Originally Posted by E-Dogg

The PS3 is selling like hotcakes and so are Blu-Ray disks. This guy is so full of crap that it's coming out of his eyeballs.

http://blog.wired.com/gadgets/2007/1...ts-dont-k.html

Some of his laughable "analysis" ..

Hewlett Packard iPod To Be a Winner
"The expectation on the iPod is that HP's version will probably outsell Apple's version relatively quickly." — Rob Enderle, quoted in MacObserver in August 2004.


or

Apple's Post-iPod Era Decline Proceeds Apace
“The biggest long-term problem with moving to an Apple platform is that the company is in decline." — Rob Enderle, in October 2003.

Basically any company that is a thorn in MS side he proclaims doom and gloom for and anyone that is aligned with MS he proclaims an unqualified success. Hence the laughable HP prediction..

He's a joke. Zero credibility. Plain and simple.

[richteer]

Originally Posted by atomik kinder

Oh darn, the Wal-Mart Black Friday ad is up. Wal-Mart No sign of HD DVD anywhere.

But there is a subtle mention of Blu-ray. Look at all those TV screens advertising The Santa Clause 3... :-)

[Monkey]

Originally Posted by ehorrell

I could put a plate of dirt in front of some HD DVD fans and they would eat it and swear its chocolate.

haha, Ignorance is bliss