How long will consumer demand allow for three competing formats?

[Gbpxl]

As of this typing, there are three formats that movies are still produced on; DVD, BD, and UHD BD. None of these formats show any sign of dying off any time soon. However... I only see two of these formats really surviving ten years from now- DVD and 4K. DVD still has a place for lower-income consumers and/or people who dont have fast ethernet to be able to stream. The enthusiasts have mostly jumped to 4K. Where does that leave BD? If a film collector has high speed internet and is still going out of their way to buy physical media, I believe most of them would prefer to spend the extra $5 on the 4K version. Especially when 4K TVs have gotten so cheap in the last couple years.

Now personally I havent made the transition to 4K yet, due to my TV not being able to handle HDR and the bitrate. But once it craps out on me I will be buying a 4K TV and subsequently I will no longer buy 2K discs, but 4K instead

Criterion has yet to release anything on 4K yet and I dont understand why. so there certainly are some collectors like myself holding out for now but I think that market will continually shrink until there isnt enough demand for the "in-between" format for them to justify mass producing them. so I am guessing that by 2030, BD will largely have died off except for some smaller boutique labels who may still make produce them

[starsteam]

Not everything has or will make it to Blu-ray, and I see even less making it to 4K. I imagine as long as physical media continues to exists, I'll still be buying all three formats in order to own whatever I want to see.

[rdodolak]

Not everything requires a 4K release therefore I can still see the need for Blu-ray. DVD is an antiquated technology and really should be deprecated. Studios still use it because their costs are extremely cheap.

What's interesting is the manufacturers moved away from SD displays over a decade ago, yet studios are still hanging onto the old format since new releases are still put out in SD format. And as you've stated we're two generations of media since the advent of DVD. Time to move on.

[starsteam]

Moving away from DVD would mean missing out on shows like Deep Space Nine. Some things are too costly to remaster in HD and DVD is absolutely fine to watch titles like that on. The only way I could see DVDs going away is if all companies adapted SD on BD, but DVDs still outsell BD so that will probably never happen.
But as long as we have players that can read all three formats, then why should it matter? As long as studios aren't releasing HD-ready material to DVD only then there's no problems with SD-only material still being released to DVD.
These days the majority of 4K-ready material is still being released to Blu-ray only but I can see that changing in the future.

[starsteam]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

Unfortunately there is tons of HD material that is only released on DVD. Most recent TV shows (which are all broadcast in HD) are still being released only on DVD. Unfortunately as long as there are plenty of customers who care more about products being cheap than high quality that will never change.

Yes, and the studios can't do much about that. They could try to force people to buy Blu by not releasing the DVD but that could kill the industry instead. The best solution is to do like Warner and release these shows through MOD. MOD is becoming bigger with more studios adapting it and it could very well end up being the future of Blu-ray. Produce in smaller quantities to meet the limited demand.

[Gbpxl]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

Your TV can't handle the bitrate? That's nonsense. You can hook up a 4K Blu-ray player to a 1080p TV and it'll play 4K Blu-rays just fine.



I agree. Each new format will have less and less content so I expect to continue buying new DVDs, Blu-rays, and 4K Blu-rays for the rest of my life.

I own a Sony Bravia manufactured in 2014. It doesn't have HDMI 2.0 ports nor can it display HDR from everything I read. It can stream media in 2160p from what I read at least

[rdodolak]

Originally Posted by starsteam

Moving away from DVD would mean missing out on shows like Deep Space Nine. Some things are too costly to remaster in HD and DVD is absolutely fine to watch titles like that on. The only way I could see DVDs going away is if all companies adapted SD on BD, but DVDs still outsell BD so that will probably never happen.
But as long as we have players that can read all three formats, then why should it matter? As long as studios aren't releasing HD-ready material to DVD only then there's no problems with SD-only material still being released to DVD.
These days the majority of 4K-ready material is still being released to Blu-ray only but I can see that changing in the future.

I would disagree that we'd miss out on SD content. SD content could still be put on Blu-ray and that content would still benefit from the better compression standards and audio formats. In addition, if the industry went away from DVD and Blu-ray became the standard, cost would decrease further due to economies of scale.

[steve_dave]

Originally Posted by Gbpxl

I own a Sony Bravia manufactured in 2014. It doesn't have HDMI 2.0 ports nor can it display HDR from everything I read. It can stream media in 2160p from what I read at least

You’d still get 1080p from 4K Blu-ray discs and games.

[DukeTogo84]

Honestly, who knows what's going to happen. The market for physical media is shrinking. If a film doesn't do well it doesn't even get a 4K release as it costs the studio more money to produce the discs and it's simply not a worthwhile venture.

Out of the three formats I could see 4K being the first to go. These forums have slowly turned into every other post being "why no 4K?" and it's something we are probably going to be hearing a lot more in the upcoming months. I think we are fortunate that it even gets a Blu-ray release.

Unfortunately, the safest of the three is probably DVD at least with the bigger companies. Even some of the the boutique labels have said that a lot of time the DVD will outsell the Blu-ray counterparts (Kino). Which makes it a bit surprising that certain companies like Arrow have gotten rid of DVD's all together.

Either way, I think all three formats are safe. Just expect a lot more of newer release titles to not get 4K releases and beyond that, who knows what will happen.

[moviegeek1992]

It's simple, 4K Blu-ray will go away after a while. Why? Because so much still hasn't made the jump from DVD to Blu-ray so it stands to reason that even less will go from Blu-ray to 4K. Why would a format that has the least amount of titles survive?

[steve_dave]

Sony released the Chinese film “The Bravest” on digital only last month. Before they were at least offering a DVD to go with the digital format. I don’t even think it was even released in US theaters just straight to digital.

[Vilya]

The Bravest Blu-ray

Having a region free player and shopping globally are your friends.

[cjamescook]

Just a data point, but over on ClassicFlix, the owner reported:

Originally Posted by ClassicFlix

... in general, replication of Blu-ray's for small runs are anywhere from 1.5x to 2.5x the cost of DVD. Authoring is also about 1.5x more costly.

Additionally, speaking anecdotally from having been in the business of renting and selling classic titles for 15 years, you would be shocked as to how many in our target demo (45 & up) still only have DVD players (some of which have only recently made the jump from VHS).

For those who cannot envision this, think of the technical aversion your eldest living relative has and multiply that by several million.

- David

p.s. Info on blu-ray costs:
why-more-companies-may-be-shying-away-from-releasing-blu-rays

[Gbpxl]

Originally Posted by cjamescook

Just a data point, but over on ClassicFlix, the owner reported:



p.s. Info on blu-ray costs:
why-more-companies-may-be-shying-away-from-releasing-blu-rays

its shocking to me that anyone would still be watching VHS beyond the year 2016/2017

[steve_dave]

Originally Posted by Vilya

https://www.blu-ray.com/movies/The-B...lu-ray/258240/

Having a region free player and shopping globally are your friends.

Um. Cool, that helps Germany but does bupkiss for the US market. Especially if Sony continues this trend which might force Sony to lose bidding wars for international films to Well Go or Lionsgate or even Paramount.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by moviegeek1992

It's simple, 4K Blu-ray will go away after a while. Why? Because so much still hasn't made the jump from DVD to Blu-ray so it stands to reason that even less will go from Blu-ray to 4K. Why would a format that has the least amount of titles survive?

It is not the quantity of titles released on a format so much as it is the profitability of the titles released.

Since the inception of the DVD format there have been 229,252 titles released as of the end of 2019.

2019DVDReleaseReport.jpg

Since the inception of the blu-ray format, which includes 4K, there have been only 24,369 titles released as of the end of 2019.

2019BlurayReleaseReport.jpg

Despite there being 9.41 times as many titles released on DVD than on blu-ray, the blu-ray format is still with us. In terms of revenue, blu-ray sales comprised 47.2% of total disc revenue last year despite DVDs huge numerical advantage in the number of titles released on the format.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by steve_dave

Um. Cool, that helps Germany but does bupkiss for the US market. Especially if Sony continues this trend which might force Sony to lose bidding wars for international films to Well Go or Lionsgate or even Paramount.

Region B comprises a lot more than just Germany. If it sells well enough in the Region B countries, its release might be expanded to other regions. Having a region free player makes it relevant to the global market.

[50strat54]

I’m moving toward digital. I just bought The Accused this morning on HD for $4.99. The Complete Americans is HD, only season one came out on Blu-ray.

Lots of films never released on Blu-ray in this country are being released digitally in HD.

Easy to find movies digitally as well. Keeping all my DVDs, Blu-ray’s and 4Ks but I am no longer worried about physical survival.

I’ll still buy 4K packages of the films I want especially to get the digital code. Just bought Doctor Sleep it was nice the code included the Directors Cut.

I don’t buy cheap $5.99 Blu-ray’s anymore unless digital is included.

I do plan on buying Just One Of The Guys when it comes out on Blu-ray been waiting for that one. I own the full screen DVD and have it digitally in HD.

I also still have titles coming from Best Buy b2g1 pre-orders.

Can’t stop progress and like the music industry digital is moving forward like a tidal wave.

[Strapped4Cash]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

Unfortunately there is tons of HD material that is only released on DVD. Most recent TV shows (which are all broadcast in HD) are still being released only on DVD. Unfortunately as long as there are plenty of customers who care more about products being cheap than high quality that will never change.

Or DVD-R. Lots of shows, especially by Fox (and now it appears WAC too) are going to DVD-R exclusive.

Originally Posted by starsteam

Yes, and the studios can't do much about that. They could try to force people to buy Blu by not releasing the DVD but that could kill the industry instead. The best solution is to do like Warner and release these shows through MOD. MOD is becoming bigger with more studios adapting it and it could very well end up being the future of Blu-ray. Produce in smaller quantities to meet the limited demand.

But Warner is moving away from MOD BD's and towards MOD DVD's i.e. DVD-R's, or no physical releases. In the past they weren't supportive of current tv series cancelled after a single season, but did show a commitment to those which were renewed.

But that's quickly changing. The Originals S5 came out on DVD-only, iZombie S4 and S5 have yet to see any releases, as with All American S1. Famous in Love went straight to DVD-R.

Meanwhile, Animal Kingdom, Black Lightning, Legacies, Roswell, NM and You have been transitioned to, or begun with, DVD-R's only.

Originally Posted by Vilya

Having a region free player and shopping globally are your friends.

I agree that buying US tv series and movies from other countries is essential nowadays, but there are still a large number that don't get Blu's (let alone 4K) anywhere in the world.

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There are entire companies now who only, or almost only, releases burned media. I called up one awhile back (Dreamscape) and they said that it didn't even occur to them to press any of their releases.

[steve_dave]

Originally Posted by Vilya

Region B comprises a lot more than just Germany. If it sells well enough in the Region B countries, Sony, or someone else, might expand its release to other regions. Having a region free player makes it relevant to the global market.

That’s not a Sony release, its the German release from Capelight. Yes, region B is huge compared to A but it is still a German release. Which again does not impact or influence Sony USA at all. Now, it was a German made film that did big numbers at the German box office then Sony USA maybe interested.