Looking beyond Blu-ray...

[frenchglen]

Does anyone hate how Microsoft, no matter how evil they are, always seem to be the ones to have a secure future, have an eye on the future trends and seem to be the ones to benefit the most from them? (generalised statement of course)

I think it's basically becuse everything's becoming more "computerised" as time goes on. Computers are the most flexible, diverse and widespread part of consumer technology and it can mimic the functions of more and more "other" technologies (like playing movies)...especially with the intenet now.

I.e. downloads. I am one to firmly believe that downloads are the future. Yes, I do think people will always like physical media (something to hold in their hand and carry from one place to another)

But what I think will OUTWEIGH that, is the fact that downloads are so flexible. The problem with physical formats, is that it's a hassle to standardise, get the companies to agree on the physical technology, etc. And once it's finalised, it stays that way until a new completely different physical technology replaces it. It's also very costly.

With downloads, it's all about software and file formats, which are much easier to implment, standardise, update, etc. If they want to start soing higher reoslutions, no need for new formats, just maybe a software update and let the playback devices (TVs) evolve to handle it. The other thing is that it's instant. Straight to your TV. And assuming DRM will not be a big part of it, you'll be able to use it on many platforms.

Of course I could go on about all the other arguments for downloads but I think everyone can agree how much simpler and convenient it is, once it will happen (whereas the only arguments I ever hear defending physical media are: portability (I can imagine us carrying our media on out phones one day), current internet speeds can't handle it (one day they will) and the fact that you can "hold it in your hand" (well, MP3s are pretty popular compared to CD, aren't they? People dont mind downloads).

Having said that, don't you hate how Microsoft are the ones who seem to be going to benefit the most from this? I hope they don't get domiannce in the downloads market.

I'm really hoping that the downlaods future can be so without Microsoft being a major part of it. That would suck. I'm hoping that systems like Linux, Apple Macs, PS3, anything, can become the common centres of media systems, instead of windows computers. I hope that we will have Sony and Yamaha and Denon Network Media Players, where we used to have our DVD players.

I really hope it will be a Microsoft-less future.

[Edh63]

I think downloads will be part of what's in the future for the public. NetFlix has already announced they will be coming out with a player in the Fall of 08', similar probably to TiVo or DVR, and you'll then be able to shop online or off your TV and download movies.

Net TV is not to far off. You'll be voice commanding to your TV where you want to go and voice cues will direct you to certain advertisements. Our company is already partnering with a team at Microsoft to integrate our website into this kind of technology so the market can be directed toward our site with certain voice cues right from your TV. TVs are becoming more and more like your PC and will soon have all the capacity of a PC to use without hooking up your PC to it.

It's coming

[Petra_Kalbrain]

Originally Posted by frenchglen

Does anyone hate how Microsoft, no matter how evil they are, always seem to be the ones to have a secure future, have an eye on the future trends and seem to be the ones to benefit the most from them? (generalised statement of course)

I think it's basically becuse everything's becoming more "computerised" as time goes on. Computers are the most flexible, diverse and widespread part of consumer technology and it can mimic the functions of more and more "other" technologies (like playing movies)...especially with the intenet now.

I.e. downloads. I am one to firmly believe that downloads are the future. Yes, I do think people will always like physical media (something to hold in their hand and carry from one place to another)

But what I think will OUTWEIGH that, is the fact that downloads are so flexible. The problem with physical formats, is that it's a hassle to standardise, get the companies to agree on the physical technology, etc. And once it's finalised, it stays that way until a new completely different physical technology replaces it. It's also very costly.

With downloads, it's all about software and file formats, which are much easier to implment, standardise, update, etc. If they want to start soing higher reoslutions, no need for new formats, just maybe a software update and let the playback devices (TVs) evolve to handle it. The other thing is that it's instant. Straight to your TV. And assuming DRM will not be a big part of it, you'll be able to use it on many platforms.

Of course I could go on about all the other arguments for downloads but I think everyone can agree how much simpler and convenient it is, once it will happen (whereas the only arguments I ever hear defending physical media are: portability (I can imagine us carrying our media on out phones one day), current internet speeds can't handle it (one day they will) and the fact that you can "hold it in your hand" (well, MP3s are pretty popular compared to CD, aren't they? People dont mind downloads).

Having said that, don't you hate how Microsoft are the ones who seem to be going to benefit the most from this? I hope they don't get domiannce in the downloads market.

I'm really hoping that the downlaods future can be so without Microsoft being a major part of it. That would suck. I'm hoping that systems like Linux, Apple Macs, PS3, anything, can become the common centres of media systems, instead of windows computers. I hope that we will have Sony and Yamaha and Denon Network Media Players, where we used to have our DVD players.

I really hope it will be a Microsoft-less future.

I honestly think that EVERYONE KNOWS downloads are the way of the future. The misconception is that downloads can't be the way of the NEAR FUTURE. If they are the way of the near future, it destroys the quality of High Definition. The infrastructure needed to sustain viable download speeds/bandwidth are nowhere near being implemented. So, if downloads happen too soon, they will reduce the amount of data in the files in order to compensate for download times, thus keeping resolutions at 720p (max) and audio at COMPRESSED LOSSY Dolby Digital 5.1!

That's not what I spent $9000+ on a home theatre system for!!! AND, I didn't spend $9000+ on a home theatre system now so that I can enjoy downloads 5 years from now in TRUE HIGH DEFINITION.

[Stinkin Mushroom]

downloading an hd movie will be in the future where it takes 5 seconds to download a whole movie and 1TB of memory costs a dollar... maybe in 10 years or so

[Dalese]

Originally Posted by Petra_Kalbrain

I honestly think that EVERYONE KNOWS downloads are the way of the future. The misconception is that downloads can't be the way of the NEAR FUTURE. If they are the way of the near future, it destroys the quality of High Definition. The infrastructure needed to sustain viable download speeds/bandwidth are nowhere near being implemented. So, if downloads happen too soon, they will reduce the amount of data in the files in order to compensate for download times, thus keeping resolutions at 720p (max) and audio at COMPRESSED LOSSY Dolby Digital 5.1!

That's not what I spent $9000+ on a home theatre system for!!! AND, I didn't spend $9000+ on a home theatre system now so that I can enjoy downloads 5 years from now in TRUE HIGH DEFINITION.

+1

It is also not only "when" downloads will happen but "how" as well. As Petra says the infrastucture doen't exist now. When it is finally in place, the downloaded movies may not even be in a format similar to what we think of as being "downloads".

When the book publishers first started releasing electronic editions of their books, the thought was within the book industry that "paper" was on its way out. Digital readers were thought to be the next great electronic device that everyone would have to have to read their e-books. Where are we today? Bound paper, though more expensive then ever before, is still the primary way people buy books. Though I've read a couple of books online, I never have used a digital reader and still prefer to be able to curl up on the couch with a good book made of bound paper.

I suspect the same will be for movies. Whether it will be video-on-demand, pay-per-view, self destructing discs, video streaming, downloading to flash memory cards, rom chips, or positronic matrixes the reality of downloads as it is now is not viable at this point or any time soon.

In the meanwhile High Definition is definately available both in viewing equipment and media. Broadcast signals will be switching over to digital soon. More and more people are purchasing high def equipment. To hold off in enjoying movies in 1080p on Blu-ray and wait for an as-to-yet not developed movie delivery system via "downloads" is IMO like not buying a car today because flying cars will be out in the future.

[frenchglen]

Hmm while I see your point I'm not sure that equates to movies to the same extent.

downloads vs. physical media is only the process by which you get the movie. The actual movie-watching experience is no different. Unless you were including going out to get or ordering the disc, opening it out of its package, and slotting the disc in.

I know some people love that but I think the main thing for everyone is to just watch the movie! And for most people, in the best quality possible (and I know that applies to *everyone* on this forum! )

[Kristin Simard]

Yet another downloads thread ! Formats will continue to change. 1080p is not the absolute. Laser TV can increase the resolution, color tonal range, etc. It may be possible in the future for people to have at home the same high resolution as 35mm film, or even 70mm film.

I don't doubt that downloads and streaming will be in the future. They're here already in lower def. But they may not be the only game in town. (Think holographic discs and cubes.)

If the format war ends soon, I think Blu-ray stands the chance of a 15-25 year life, much like music CDs. That's not saying there won't be other options. What I would hate the most would be one option only: downloading or streaming from Microsoft!

Years ago people thought that IBM would always be the computer king. At that time laptop computers were science fiction.

[Septimus Prime]

Honestly, it feels really good to have a substantive, physical copy of your media, and—for me, at least—I'm more compelled to watch/read the discs/books that are actually sitting on my shelf than I am to watch a digital copy of it (whether it be downloaded from the Internet or TiVoed or anything like that).

[Blue]

Downloads for quite sometime will be a very "exclusive" market as not only do you need customers who want the product, but they have to live in the areas with access to very high speed broadband to access the product. To upgrade the infrastructure in many countries to this extent is going to take many years. By then who knows, there maybe something else capturing the public's attention and the net is soooo 90's. In low density populations in many countries they may never get boradband at those speeds. If HD downloads are going to succeed they need a large customer base and one that is not segmented, this is one thing slowing down the HD optical market. Upgrading the entire 'telephone' network is a much more dificult task, bot financially and politically.

[frenchglen]

Originally Posted by Kristin Simard

Yet another downloads thread ! Formats will continue to change. 1080p is not the absolute. Laser TV can increase the resolution, color tonal range, etc. It may be possible in the future for people to have at home the same high resolution as 35mm film, or even 70mm film.

I don't doubt that downloads and streaming will be in the future. They're here already in lower def. But they may not be the only game in town. (Think holographic discs and cubes.)

If the format war ends soon, I think Blu-ray stands the chance of a 15-25 year life, much like music CDs. That's not saying there won't be other options. What I would hate the most would be one option only: downloading or streaming from Microsoft!

Years ago people thought that IBM would always be the computer king. At that time laptop computers were science fiction.

Well, you just showed how you never know what's going to happen. So, you never know!

Anyway, this is not another downloads thread, I was actually wondering if anyone agrees with me that Microsoft always seems to benefit from technological progresses in general, and that it sucks? It always seems to come back to the computer, to software, and unfortunately, they have a gross makret dominance in that.

[glenn22]

Of course downloads are the future. Everyone in the industry will be pulling for it. Distributors will no longer need to make physical discs and sell them at retail stores, eliminating huge production costs, storage costs, shipping costs, unsold stock costs, etc. They will make far more per copy with a download than they ever could with physical media. It's a cash cow for them.

It's not just the industry that wants it though, look at music... how many people can say they buy all their music on CD now? There might be a few, but most of us at least download SOME of our music. I personally download ALL of my music and listen to it on an iPod. The only difference here is that the file sizes of HD video make downloading with currently technology impossibly slow, and that storage space per gigabyte is too high to keep copies of the files locally.

Microsoft is not always on the cutting edge and leading in the tech front. Look at the Microsoft Network... how often do you use that to search the Internet?? I don't know about you, but I use google. Downloadable music? I use iTunes. MP3 players? I use an iPod. And in this latest console war, I think Sony was much more forward looking than Microsoft with their inclusion of a standard harddrive, HDMI and a Blu-ray drive. Don't give Microsoft too much credit, the only thing they really nailed is getting the monopoly on PC operating systems.

[dialog_gvf]

Step #1: Define an industry standard

HD DVD and Blu-ray are industry standard

Step #2: Have companies release hardware for the standard

HD DVD and Blu-ray have hardware released

Before pushing downloads, an industry forum spec for them needs to be defined and agreed upon. That's the starting point. At this point the players are trying the monopolize the market. PCs are not the foundation for a new media model for the home theater.

Gary