When does Universal fall?

[Spankey]

Assuming they do decide to release movies on Blu-ray, when should this happen or what will it take? Is it worth it for them to release movies strictlty to HD-DVD or will they wait to see what the installed user base for Blu-ray is?

I still maintain, the if the day comes the Universal comes over to Blu-ray, its lights out for HD-DVD.

[theknub]

slt, i agree that once universal crosses the line and is at least neutral that the war is pretty much over.

as for when, i can pull something out of my ass but the best i can do is say i don't know. now if you're talking simply about opinion, i would say ~6 months depending on the installed userbase of blu-ray.

[JTK]

End of 1st quarter 2007 at earliest.

What dictates it: When some suit says: "Hey, we can make more money by also throwing BD a few bones. It looks viable, it's growing."

That means 100 percent studio support for BD, in essence, the second this happens.


One could argue even now that it's simply sheer folly for them to completely ignore BD outright. It certainly will be by that time.

[phranctoast]

I think they will wait until the userbase for blu ray is impressively dominant over hd dvd. Then they will realize how much money they are losing. They will not stop supporting hd dvd however, just support blu ray as well. In under a month the blu ray player in peoples houses will increase by 500,000. It shouldnt be to long to wait for universal movies

[theknub]

*counting on fingers*
end of 1st quarter '07 is 3 months
+ ~2 months left this year
= ~5 months

even more optomistic than me

[JTK]

Originally Posted by theknub

*counting on fingers*
end of 1st quarter '07 is 3 months
+ ~2 months left this year
= ~5 months

even more optomistic than me

I think 5-6 months is pretty fair for an early estimate, especially considering Universal threw down with HD-DVD sight unseen, before anything hit the streets to begin with.

Besides obvious and basic finances, it's also going to come down to: When/if Universal can get over whatever "hard feelings" they have/had over UMD and the PSP.

Money talks. Feelings can go away real quick like.

[phloyd]

They may have some exclusive agreement with HD DVD for a period of time - I have heard things to that end.

Also, while there is a lot of potential for BD, it is hardly kicking ass yet.

So I am gonna side with mid 2007.

Once Fox and Disney are in full steam ahead mode and Warner catches up with all of the HD DVD exclusives out on BD, things will look very different from what they are now.

[Longshot]

I thought I read some where that Universal was exclusive to HD DVD until they released King Kong. I'm too lazy too look it up but I swear it was Palladin over at AVS who said this.

[Rob Tomlin]

Originally Posted by JTK

End of 1st quarter 2007 at earliest.

What dictates it: When some suit says: "Hey, we can make more money by also throwing BD a few bones. It looks viable, it's growing."

That means 100 percent studio support for BD, in essence, the second this happens.


One could argue even now that it's simply sheer folly for them to completely ignore BD outright. It certainly will be by that time.

The same argument could be made for releasing on HD-DVD. Disney and others can look at HD-DVD and say "hey, this format is actually doing pretty good. Better than expected, and they are selling a decent number of HD-DVD titles. We can make more money by also throwing HD-DVD a few bones. IT looks viable, it's growing"!

[JTK]

Originally Posted by Rob Tomlin

The same argument could be made for releasing on HD-DVD. Disney and others can look at HD-DVD and say "hey, this format is actually doing pretty good. Better than expected, and they are selling a decent number of HD-DVD titles. We can make more money by also throwing HD-DVD a few bones. IT looks viable, it's growing"!

Could be. We'll all know within the next 6 months.

Personally, I believe that ball is going to swing BD's way.

[hmurchison]

I'm guessing by Summer 2007 we'll have Universal on Blu-ray. This year was basically about supporting the format you thought would win as a studio and now the reality is we're going to be with both for the foreseeable future. By summers end I see

Blu-ray all studios
HD DVD- minus Columbia and Fox

I'm not sure if that's enough to win the war. Columbia and Fox don't have a huge back catalog of classics so for older generations they won't be as appealing IMO.

[theknub]

murch... two things, older generations aren't typically on the bleeding edge. so, the back catalog will not matter as much.

second, you also forgot sony (unless that is what you mean by columbia) from the minus side of hd-dvd

i also want to note that if hd-dvd has been hacked as was reported, no studio is moving over to that side (esp fox and disney).

[Rob Tomlin]

Originally Posted by JTK

Could be. We'll all know within the next 6 months.

Personally, I believe that ball is going to swing BD's way.

Oh, I definitelely agree at this point.

I'm just saying that some BD exclusive studios could look at HD-DVD and think they are doing better than they expected, and realize that there are sales to be made by releasing on that format as well. But, since there is still only one manufacturer (basically) of HD-DVD players, and the big boys are just now starting to show up with BD players, I certainly don't think you will see any studios that are currently exclusive to BD release on HD-DVD until these new BD players have been on the market for at least 6-8 months.

If HD-DVD is still in the game, and selling a lot of titles in that time frame, studios such as Disney will consider releasing on HD-DVD.

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

I'm not sure if that's enough to win the war. Columbia and Fox don't have a huge back catalog of classics so for older generations they won't be as appealing IMO.

Columbia has been around since 1924.

1930s
Tol'able David (1930)
Platinum Blonde (1931)
Broadway Bill (1933)
Lady for a Day (1933)
Twentieth Century (1934)
It Happened One Night (1934)
One Night of Love (1934)
Mr Deeds Goes to Town (1936)
The Awful Truth (1937)
Lost Horizon (1937)
You Can't Take It with You (1938)
Only Angels Have Wings (1939)
Mr. Smith Goes to Washington (1939)

1940s
His Girl Friday (1940)
Penny Serenade (1941)
You Were Never Lovelier (1941)
You'll Never Get Rich (1942)
My Sister Eileen (1942)
The More the Merrier (1943)
The Batman (1943, plus follow up serial in 1949)
Cover Girl (1944)
Gilda (1946)
The Jolson Story (1946)
All the King's Men (1949)

1950s
Born Yesterday (1950)
In a Lonely Place (1950)
The Marrying Kind (1952)
From Here to Eternity (1953)
The 5,000 Fingers of Dr. T (1953)
The Wild One (1953)
The Caine Mutiny (1954)
On The Waterfront (195 4)
Picnic (1955)
The Bridge on the River Kwai (1957)
Pal Joey (1957)
Bell, Book, and Candle (1958)
Porgy and Bess (1958, distribution only)
Suddenly, Last Summer (1959)
Gidget (1959)

1960s
The Guns of Navarone (1961)
Lawrence of Arabia (1962)
Bye Bye Birdie (1963)
Jason and the Argonauts (1963)
Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb (1964)
Lord Jim (1965)
Three On A Couch (1966)
Born Free (1966)
Georgy Girl (1966)
Casino Royale (1967)
In Cold Blood (1967)
To Sir, with Love (1967)
Guess Who's Coming to Dinner (1967)
Oliver! (1968)
Funny Girl (1968)
Bob & Carol & Ted & Alice (1969)
Cactus Flower (1969)
Easy Rider (1969)

1970s
I Never Sang for My Father (1970)
Cromwell (1970)
Dad's Army (1971)
The Last Picture Show (1971)
1776 (1972)
Young Winston (1972)
The Way We Were (1973)
The Lords of Flatbush (1974)
Confessions Of A Window Cleaner (1974)
Monty Python and the Holy Grail (1975) (US distribution)
Shampoo (1975)
Tommy (1975)
Murder by Death (1976)
Taxi Driver (1976)
The Front (1976)
Close Encounters of the Third Kind (1977)
Spiderman (1977)
Eyes of Laura Mars (1978)
Midnight Express (1978)
Thank God It's Friday (1978)
The Buddy Holly Story (1978)
The China Syndrome (1979)
Hardcore (1979)
Kramer vs. Kramer (1979)

1980s
The Blue Lagoon (1980)
Stir Crazy (1980)
Used Cars (1980)
Das Boot (1981, distribution)
Stripes (1981)
Neighbors (1981)
Absence of Malice (1981)
Annie (1982, plus a TV sequel in 1995 and a TV remake in 1999) (co-production with Rastar)
Tootsie (1982)
Gandhi (1982) (distribution)
The Big Chill (1983)
Blue Thunder (1983)
Christine (1983)
Ghostbusters (1984) (and sequel in 1989)
Body Double (1984)
The Karate Kid (1984) (and numeraled sequels, II [1986] and III [1989]
Moscow on the Hudson (1984)
Starman (1984)
St. Elmo's Fire (1985)
Fright Night (1985, plus TriStar Pictures sequel in 1988)
Stand By Me (1986)
Ishtar (1987)
Roxanne (1987)
The Last Emperor (1987) (distribution)
The New Adventures of Pippi Longstocking (1988)
The Big Blue (Le Grand Bleu) (1988)

1990s
Awakenings (1990)
The Prince of Tides (1991)
Boyz N the Hood (1991)
City Slickers (1991) (and sequel in 1994)
Bram Stoker's Dracula (1992)
A League of Their Own (1992)
El Mariachi (1992) (distribution)
A Few Good Men (1992)
Groundhog Day (1993)
The Age of Innocence (1993)
The Shawshank Redemption (1994) (co-production with Castle Rock Entertainment)
Desperado (1995)
The Cable Guy (1996)
The People vs. Larry Flynt (1996)
The Fifth Element (1997, USA distribution only)
Anaconda (1997)
Air Force One (1997)
Men in Black (1997) (and sequel in 2002) (co-production with Amblin Entertainment)
Spiceworld (1997)
Big Daddy (1999)
Bicentennial Man (1999) (co-production with Touchstone Pictures)
Stuart Little (1999)

[Ascended_Saiyan]

WOW! I didn't know they had all that. Doesn't Sony own Screen Gems? Doesn't that mean they have TV series like Bewitched, I Dream of Jeannie, Green Arces, Bonanza, Ponderosa, etc?

[Deciazulado]

Originally Posted by Ascended_Saiyan

WOW! I didn't know they had all that. Doesn't Sony own Screen Gems? Doesn't that mean they have TV series like Bewitched, I Dream of Jeannie, Green Arces, Bonanza, Ponderosa, etc?

Yup.

The Bewitched box sets are Sony, etc.


I think I have a couple of books in storage about 20th Century Fox and/or Columbia Pictures, the kind of Scholarly books with only a list of films with credits, etc, of all the films created by a studio.

They were thick books.

[GoldenRedux]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

Columbia and Fox don't have a huge back catalog of classics so for older generations they won't be as appealing IMO.

This is absolute nonsense. More FUD with no basis in reality. See Dobyblue post above for a factual basis in reality.

[Spankey]

Columbia and Fox don't have a huge back catalog of classics so for older generations they won't be as appealing IMO.

HHMMM? The Sound of Music, Cleopatra, James Bond, Bridge on the River Kwai...

Okayyyyyyy

[GoldenRedux]

Originally Posted by sltmag

HHMMM? The Sound of Music, Cleopatra, James Bond, Bridge on the River Kwai...

Okayyyyyyy

Don't worry, that non-point has already been dealt with - next!