Aren't Universal and Paramount Doing Fine?

[swivel]

If the movie sell rate stays at 80/20, doesn't that mean that Universal and Paramount are doing just as well as everyone else?

If they account for 20% of the films, and also account for 20% of the sales, that means they are selling the same number of films as each Blu-Ray studio (averaged, of course).

So, while HD-DVD looks like it is losing, all of the studios are selling an appropriate percentage. Of course, Warner is still factored in, so this argument will only hold water if Uni and Para pick up the slack after Warner halts production.

[Elandyll]

You "kinda" forget that Warner is still being sold until May as HD DVD. And it's a nice chunk of the HD DVDs being sold.
So .. yeah. Universal and Paramount aren't even close to 20% of the whole HD market (HD DVD + Blu Ray) right now.

[reiella]

Originally Posted by swivel

If the movie sell rate stays at 80/20, doesn't that mean that Universal and Paramount are doing just as well as everyone else?

If they account for 20% of the films, and also account for 20% of the sales, that means they are selling the same number of films as each Blu-Ray studio (averaged, of course).

So, while HD-DVD looks like it is losing, all of the studios are selling an appropriate percentage. Of course, Warner is still factored in, so this argument will only hold water if Uni and Para pick up the slack after Warner halts production.

Currently, the sales #s include Warner as well.

Just like some of Blu-Ray's sales number still includes Paramount titles.

With Warner though, not likly to see a drop off until after the drop-off date.

[JasonS]

Would you rather profit from 20% of 2,000 discs sold, or 20% of 20,000 discs sold? Your percentage doesn't translate equally.

[Chaka]

Its the potential market that they are missing out on. That is the big picture. Honestly if Warner didn't go completely Blu-ray I think that 2 formats could've coexisted. Regardless if every studio went blu, it will always be a niche market and never overtake standard dvd sales.

[Luis_A51]

Originally Posted by swivel

If the movie sell rate stays at 80/20, doesn't that mean that Universal and Paramount are doing just as well as everyone else?

If they account for 20% of the films, and also account for 20% of the sales, that means they are selling the same number of films as each Blu-Ray studio (averaged, of course).

So, while HD-DVD looks like it is losing, all of the studios are selling an appropriate percentage. Of course, Warner is still factored in, so this argument will only hold water if Uni and Para pick up the slack after Warner halts production.

You do realise that there are still Warner HDDVD movies in stock right? Therefor the HDDVD disc totals will continue to included Warner movies.

[bajor27]

I've always kind of wondered about this myself.

If they could keep it at 80:20, with Uni and Paramount being the only studios selling HD-DVD, each could potentially sell to 10% of the HDM market. That's not a bad share of a market with 7 major studios.

If they all had an equal share of the HDM, they'd only be looking at about 12-13% of the market each anyway (allowing some room for the smaller studios). It's unlikely that they'd all actually have an equal share though.

Of course, the percentage of the HDM market that HD-DVD has could easily shrink with Blu-ray having such a huge lead or the HDM market might not grow as much as it could if there was only one format, so staying HD-DVD exclusive isn't a great idea.

[Elandyll]

Originally Posted by bajor27

I've always kind of wondered about this myself.

If they could keep it at 80:20, with Uni and Paramount being the only studios selling HD-DVD, each could potentially sell to 10% of the HDM market. That's not a bad share of a market with 7 major studios.

If they all had an equal share of the HDM, they'd only be looking at about 12-13% of the market each anyway (allowing some room for the smaller studios). It's unlikely that they'd all actually have an equal share though.

Of course, the percentage of the HDM market that HD-DVD has could easily shrink with Blu-ray having such a huge lead or the HDM market might not grow as much as it could if there was only one format, so staying HD-DVD exclusive isn't a great idea.

That's what's already been said here.
Three majors (Paramount, Universal and Warner) that represent something like 50% of the movie market (between the three of them) only get HD DVD a meager 15% of the HD disc market. Once you remove Warner (the biggest, by far, share of it), it will probably just drop to a whoopin 8%.

We are talking 8% of the HD disc market, for two majors (Universal -Paramount/Dreamworks) that could normally pretend to something around 20-25% between the two of em. Do the math.

[swivel]

Originally Posted by JasonS

Would you rather profit from 20% of 2,000 discs sold, or 20% of 20,000 discs sold? Your percentage doesn't translate equally.

I don't think your math is correct. When you look at the 80/20 ratio, that is the ratio of all Hi-Def discs sold.

I did acknowledge in my original post that Warner is currently factored in, but what if the demand for movies in general (and not particular titles) is 80/20 right now? Let's say that Warner goes 100% Blu, and the consumer is just more discerning, not that they all start buying more movies and less gas.

HD-DVD consumers would just pick up that Paramount or Uni movie that they would have passed on if the Warner release was available.

Also: What if those cheap HD-DVD drives are going to Blu-Supporters that are picking one up cheap and going Purple without telling their online buddies? Because they couldn't wait for some of the films to come over to the Blue side?

All of this is unlikely, and pure speculation. My only point is that if the 80/20 ratio were to hold up, the Blu crowd will keep saying "Failure!", meanwhile, Para and Uni are making just as much money as the other studios.

What I am cautioning here is for Blu fans to look at the pie from the studio's perspective, and not from the format's perspective. Our victory is not "their" victory necessarily.

[Joon]

After May you will start to see sales figures at 90:10 and better. HD DVD is in a whole HEAP of trouble. They just reported a 25% decrease in profit. They may be forced to abandon HD DVD with out even wanting to give up. Blu-ray did a great job in Q4 and everything they did(BOGO's, slashed prices, ps3 commercials, etc.) all paid off.

[supertrunks6]

as far as I see it if I was a movie company and I could double my profits by either making for both formats or preferably one single format that's what I would want, not just being satisfied with dismal HDDVD sales

[Slapper]

If by "fine" you really mean "frantic", then yes, they're fine.

The good ship HD DVD has sunk. Fortunately Universal and Paramount remembered their Blu lifevests and bailed out. All they have to do now is make it back to shore. They're a little miserable being out in the cold and alone, but they'll be ok. Hey, I think I can see them coming over the horizon right now...

[Bobby Henderson]

If they could keep it at 80:20, with Uni and Paramount being the only studios selling HD-DVD, each could potentially sell to 10% of the HDM market. That's not a bad share of a market with 7 major studios.

Universal and Paramount/Dreamworks would need to have incredibly good luck with their recent, current and near future slate of movies in order to carve out 20% of the movie business market for themselves.

Unfortunately, Universal hasn't exactly been doing great in recent years. Outside of the Bourne movies, I'm having trouble even thinking of any other recent big hits they've had. Universal has done well with catalog sales when you include movies produced and directed by Steven Spielberg -an open supporter of Blu-Ray.

Paramount could be in better shape. But they had their falling out with Tom Cruise. And that new Indy sequel coming out in May probably won't be allowed onto HD-DVD if George Lucas and Steven Spielberg have anything to say about it.

Aside from that stuff, even if Universal and Paramount did excellent business at the movie theaters, they still have to contend with retailers. Companies like Best Buy, Wal-Mart and Target have had it with the format war and want it over ASAP. They'll stock the regular DVDs of Paramount and Universal movies. But they're showing they intend to move HD-DVD discs out of their stores and stock Blu-Ray as the only high def movie option. If Paramount and Universal don't want to play along with that then those movie studios are the ones which stand to lose a great deal of money on high def movie sales.

I think Universal and Paramount/Dreamworks have a limited window of opportunity to get their movies onto store shelves in time for the big shopping season this fall. Honestly, I'm very certain we'll see that Indy sequel from Paramount (and perhaps maybe even the other movies in that saga) in Blu-Ray packaging in time for Christmas.

[Richard Paul]

Originally Posted by swivel

If the movie sell rate stays at 80/20, doesn't that mean that Universal and Paramount are doing just as well as everyone else?

If they account for 20% of the films, and also account for 20% of the sales, that means they are selling the same number of films as each Blu-Ray studio (averaged, of course).

swivel, you ask a very speculative question and it would have helped had you provided evidence about market share for Paramount and Universal instead of making assumptions about what they might be.

Originally Posted by swivel

So, while HD-DVD looks like it is losing, all of the studios are selling an appropriate percentage.

As several others have pointed out Warner is still supporting both HD formats so even based on the assumptions you made that statement is wrong.

Originally Posted by swivel

HD-DVD consumers would just pick up that Paramount or Uni movie that they would have passed on if the Warner release was available.

I think most reasonable people will simply buy into Blu-ray instead of making do with movies they don't really want.

Originally Posted by swivel

Also: What if those cheap HD-DVD drives are going to Blu-Supporters that are picking one up cheap and going Purple without telling their online buddies? Because they couldn't wait for some of the films to come over to the Blue side?

I think that is much less likely today than it was a month ago and not many people are going to invest in a dying format.

Originally Posted by swivel

What I am cautioning here is for Blu fans to look at the pie from the studio's perspective, and not from the format's perspective. Our victory is not "their" victory necessarily.

Traditionally you caution people when there is a reason to do that and based on current sales it is Paramount and Universal who are losing out by not supporting Blu-ray.

[ClaytonMG]

Another thing to think about in the future is the lack of WB titles. And what I mean by that is, each studio will have to keep up with Blu-Ray in order to stay in the game. That means both studios (Paramount and Universal) will have to release 2-4 movies each week. The cost of making these discs compared to the money they'll get back from them is a major loss. There is such a small base of HD DVD supporters that there's no way that they're going to be able to keep up. And as lots of people already mentioned, the 80/20 includes WB releases. So come June, expect it to be closer to 90-95 vs. 5-10 or even smaller.

[ClaytonMG]

Originally Posted by swivel

What I am cautioning here is for Blu fans to look at the pie from the studio's perspective, and not from the format's perspective. Our victory is not "their" victory necessarily.

I'll try my best to get this right but I am horribly tired so yeah...

Taking 100% of $5 is no where near as taking 5% of $200. Does that make sense?

So you're saying that 100% (HD DVD sales) of 20% (HD Media Sales) is better? They don't look at pie charts like that, they look at dollar signs. They look at every title that's been released on both formats. They look at the fact that every title (with the exception of Planet Earth) sells better on Blu-Ray. They look at the ammount of adopters. They look at weekly sales numbers. They don't just go "hey! we sell 100% of HD DVD's titles! Rock on!"

[BluStar88]

they have very low market share in HD due to the fact that warner is also in the HD DUD numbers

[Anthony P]

Aren't Universal and Paramount Doing Fine?

no

1) it has passed 80:20 already
2) Warner is large in that 20% that is HD DVD (look at the HD DVD top 10
3) As many more people buy BD players and many HD DVD people stop buying movies the HD DVD will keep decreasing fast
4) like you pretty much pointed out it is completely insane to assume that Paramount and Universal=20% or that it will be anywhere near that high in a few months.
5) it is insane to think that BD supporters that skipped HD DVD so far will go and waste money on an HD DVD player because it is cheap even though there is no intelligent reason to buy an HD DVD player.

[Metalthrasher442]

If Para and Uni switch..it would end the war..and there are a lot of people who are waiting to buy an HD format until there is a winner..if Uni and Para end the war by switching..they'd make more money because more people would be buying their films.

Doesn't that make sense.

[Anthony P]

I'll try my best to get this right but I am horribly tired so yeah...

Taking 100% of $5 is no where near as taking 5% of $200. Does that make sense?

I think he is just an idiotic HD DVD fanboy troll trying to convince himself and others that HD DVD is doing well and Paramount and Universal will never go BD so we should waste our money on a door stop called HD DVD player and some coasters.

But his point (to make it simple) let's assume all studios have the same market share of each format and nothing matters. So 2 studios add up to 20% that means each has 10%, 5 studios add up to 80% then each studio gets 16%.

The issue is that not only is 16% for a BD studio 60% more then 10% for the HD VDVD studio so even that simplistic math shows he is wrong (in portraying Paramount and Universal doing well with HD DVD), but he misses that Warner is part of that 20% (so in essence the HD DVD should be around 7%/studio and not 10% so BD studios are easily 2x what they can do with HD DVD) and that HD DVD is at less then 20% and it will just keep on getting smaller.