Nielsen Prediction Thread for 15.02.08 (due Wednesday 13.02.08)

[Winn]

HD DVD doubles the number of new titles this week with two. First is Naked Beneath the Water from the Phoenix group. The second is Universal's Elizabeth: The Golden Age.

Blu-ray continues with the large release slates. Warner brings two titles to bear with The brave One and The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford. It will be interesting to see if the release dates for the HD DVDs get broken on them as well.

Sony is releasing a title that has long been a favorite of Penton-Man, Across the Universe. With a run time of 2:11, you know it has to move pretty fast, too.

The release slate for Blu is rounded out by Fox's Wall Street and Crimson Tide from Buena Vista among other titles.

The lone Neutral entry this week is the third season of Deadliest Catch from The Discovery Channel.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Please make your prediction with BD:HD even if you are going to predict HD DVD winning the week. Also, you are predicting the BD numbers, the HD DVD is implied. If I am confused, I will ask you for clarification if there is time before the deadline. Otherwise, you are stuck with how I read it.

The prediction period will close at 5 P.M Eastern time. That is 2 P.M. for those of you in Pacific time. This will get us ahead of the leaks. The numbers on February 15th will cover sales from February4th-February 10th, inclusive.

Nielsen contest entries for 02/15/2008

NAME                BD:HD
AAM                 91:9
BluMonster          90:10
owa                 90:10
Evashun             89:11
Dalese              88:12
crystalline blu     88:12
tiger roach         86:14
xmositox            86:14
WriteSimply         85:15
Xcom_Cheetah        85:15
bbg                 85:15
gearyt              85:15
gre8t1              85:15
BlueNeon            85:15
Living Near Shamu   84:16
RickD               84:16
blujacket           84:16
mhussung            84:16
JPEncarnac          84:16
MadScientist        84:16
cartman781          83:17
blurayboy           83:17
Fozziwig            83:17
Jim Morrison        83:17
Pellaeon            83:17
56@Yamamoto         83:17
DNR7265             83:17
GregBlu5            82:18
GTP                 82:18
CGYBLU              82:18
gand41f             82:18
Zotar               82:18
Lou-Cipher          82:18
Sonar5              82:18
blindcat87          82:18
GarettP             82:18
bajor27             82:18
TheWave             82:18
Clark Kent          82:18
digibob             82:18
Kstrike             82:18
The Don             81:19
jimsch42            81:19
Goodguy818          81:19
fomoco04            81:19
Slapper             81:19
Nathan P            81:19
Razzy               81:19
LynxFX              81:19
unreal1080p         81:19
Kairav              81:19
bageleaterkkjji     81:19
Imakida             81:19
Joe Fisher          81:19
pokerface           81:19
BillCable           80:20
Craig Ruchman       80:20
Ops2p               80:20
darkwing            80:20
cabezon1184         80:20
Jackietreehorn      80:20
josurr              80:20
waled               80:20
Y3k Bug             80:20
MarekM              80:20
grovey              80:20
patrick99           80:20
jknuss01            80:20
FFObsessed          80:20
Irishwiseguy2006    80:20
Winn                80:20
Rup_Muk             80:20
ottscay             80:20
jsb hburg           79:21
cory                79:21
Jim L               79:21
Glow007             79:21
kolasi              79:21
subgun              79:21
tuku                79:21
zmadMonk            79:21
Blu-raider          79:21
edgebsl             79:21
hardcore_canadian   79:21
swivel              79:21
MacHaggis           79:21
user friendly       79:21
Uxi                 78:22
DJeffries           78:22
jkwest              78:22
davidPS3            78:22
york weir           78:22
Aygie               78:22
SGRSBSKIER          78:22
BluWave             78:22
MatrixS2000         78:22
sjy1969             78:22
The Big Blue        77:23
richterbon23        77:23
Neo65               77:23
klac                77:23
Ispoke              77:23
w tanoto            77:23
JadedRaverLA        77:23
Alloye              77:23
UltimateFighter     77:23
bassman614          77:23
whoelse             76:24
AVBill              76:24
sj001               76:24
gordon cunningham   76:24
L or S of Perfect?  76:24
IfeelBlu            75:25
goodstuff           75:25
CptGreedle          75:25
Blubaru             75:25
mystiksuicide       75:25
blu-ray-the-king    75:25
OnlyBLU             74:26
dobyblue            73:27
Denzelio            73:27
Rolo71              72:28
Stinkin Mushroom    67:33

New releases this week:

HD DVD
Naked Beneath the Water (Phoenix Group)
Deadliest Catch: Season 3 (Discovery Channel)
Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Universal)

Blu-ray
Deadliest Catch: Season 3 (Discovery Channel)
Crimson Tide (Buena Vista)
Me, Myself & Irene (Fox)
Wall Street (Fox)
The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony)
Acorss The Universe (Sony)
Celine Dion: A New Day... Live in Las Vegas (Sony BMG)
Breaker Morant (Image)
The Brave One (Warner)
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner)

[Winn]

We have two perfect picks:

Lee Christie
Imakida


Congratulations.

Nielsen contest results for 02/08/2008

Correct Nielsen/VideoScan ratio : 74:26

NAME                Guess   Attempts   Avg. Score
JadedRaverLA        77:23          2         1.50
talbers23           75:25          2         1.50
Imakida             74:26          3         1.67
mystiksuicide       78:22          3         2.00
BluWave             76:24          2         2.00
bageleaterkkjji     72:28          2         2.00
SGRSBSKIER          79:21          3         2.67
Kairav              82:18          3         3.33
Pellaeon            81:19          3         3.33
BlueNeon            80:20          3         3.33
Aygie               80:20          2         3.50
xmositox            77:23          2         3.50
ottscay             83:17          3         3.67
LorSofPerfect?      81:19          3         3.67
york weir           78:22          3         3.67
w tanoto            75:25          3         3.67
shug7272            80:20          3         4.00
Winn                79:21          3         4.00
Rup_Muk             82:18          2         4.00
Mote                81:19          2         4.00
tuku                80:20          2         4.00
zmadMonk            80:20          2         4.00
Blubaru             78:22          1         4.00
darkprime           78:22          1         4.00
sj001               85:15          3         4.33
DetroitSportsFan    82:18          2         4.50
FFObsessed          82:18          2         4.50
Irishwiseguy2006    82:18          2         4.50
Clark Kent          81:19          2         4.50
Denzelio            81:19          2         4.50
digibob             81:19          2         4.50
subgun              81:19          2         4.50
davidPS3            75:25          2         4.50
LynxFX              84:16          3         4.67
TheWave             83:17          3         4.67
unreal1080p         81:19          3         4.67
JAGUAR1977          79:21          3         4.67
Elandyll            83:17          3         5.00
klac                83:17          3         5.00
jknuss01            84:16          2         5.00
Glow007             83:17          2         5.00
jkwest              83:17          2         5.00
kolasi              83:17          2         5.00
Nathan P            83:17          2         5.00
Razzy               83:17          2         5.00
AVBill              82:18          2         5.00
CptGreedle          81:19          2         5.00
Sonny               81:19          2         5.00
Ispoke              80:20          2         5.00
Carmien             79:21          1         5.00
HDPerfection        79:21          1         5.00
Scrapanatchi        69:31          1         5.00
patrick99           84:16          3         5.33
whoelse             84:16          3         5.33
bajor27             84:16          2         5.50
JPEncarnac          84:16          2         5.50
NexusFX             84:16          2         5.50
Slapper             84:16          2         5.50
goodstuff           82:18          2         5.50
DJeffries           81:19          2         5.50
bluskies            80:20          2         5.50
glenn22             78:22          2         5.50
GarettP             85:15          3         5.67
blindcat87          82:18          3         5.67
fomoco04            86:14          3         6.00
Jim Morrison        85:15          3         6.00
Sonar5              86:14          2         6.00
Lou-Cipher          84:16          2         6.00
AnthonyP            83:17          2         6.00
richterbon23        83:17          2         6.00
kjacobs03           82:18          2         6.00
reider              78:22          2         6.00
IfeelBlu            80:20          1         6.00
grovey              80:20          1         6.00
JasonR              80:20          1         6.00
Mikeesracing        80:20          1         6.00
Neo65               80:20          1         6.00
gand41f             87:13          3         6.33
Zotar               85:15          3         6.33
MarekM              83:17          3         6.33
Lee Christie        74:26          3         6.33
Jim L               86:14          2         6.50
josurr              85:15          2         6.50
Y3k Bug             85:15          2         6.50
Goodguy818          84:16          2         6.50
waled               84:16          2         6.50
dobyblue            80:20          2         6.50
horseflesh          80:20          2         6.50
mhussung            85:15          3         6.67
tiger roach         86:14          3         7.00
jimsch42            84:16          2         7.00
woldymoldy          84:16          2         7.00
cory                81:19          1         7.00
jubaiweaponx        81:19          1         7.00
mainman             81:19          1         7.00
Zazou               81:19          1         7.00
Titan               86:14          2         7.50
jtconnolly          85:15          2         7.50
UTVOL06             85:15          2         7.50
Mastrodisastro      84:16          2         7.50
Fozziwig            86:14          3         7.67
TheRealBob          85:15          3         8.00
cabezon1184         88:12          2         8.00
gre8t1              87:13          2         8.00
CGYBLU              84:16          2         8.00
Jackietreehorn      82:18          1         8.00
gearyt              85:15          2         8.50
The Big Blue        84:16          2         8.50
papi4baby           90:10          3         8.67
Dalese              88:12          2         9.00
GregBlu5            87:13          2         9.00
darkwing            83:17          1         9.00
bassbone57          83:17          1         9.00
Mr_Bester           83:17          1         9.00
blujacket           87:13          2         9.50
jsb hburg           82:18          2         9.50
marzetta7           84:16          1        10.00
Ops2p               84:16          1        10.00
Uxi                 84:16          1        10.00
The Don             89:11          2        10.50
BillCable           82:18          2        11.00
atrofast            85:15          1        11.00
Rike255             85:15          1        11.00
Storm               85:15          1        11.00
bkbluray            85:15          1        11.00
Craig Ruchman       85:15          1        11.00
Dew                 85:15          1        11.00
The Lurker          85:15          1        11.00
bbg                 85:15          1        11.00
blurayboy           86:14          1        12.00
RickD               86:14          1        12.00
Carbon_Le           86:14          1        12.00
Whytewash           86:14          1        12.00
Xcom_Cheetah        86:14          1        12.00
Grisle              87:13          1        13.00
cvm                 87:13          1        13.00
desmond             88:12          1        14.00
Iceman713713        88:12          1        14.00
Living Near Shamu   88:12          1        14.00
Sporty              88:12          1        14.00
stockstar1138       88:12          1        14.00
cartman781          88:12          1        14.00
WriteSimply         88:12          1        14.00
Evashun             89:11          1        15.00
jason_grumpy        90:10          1        16.00

Weekly Stats

Week	Picks	Perfect	High		Actual	Low		Mean	Median	Mode
1	77	5	99 (16) [31]	83	69 (14) [41]	83.12	82	82
2	124	6	99 (17) [82]	82	69 (13) [32]	84.31	84	84
3	145	2	90 (16) [141]	74	69 (15) [2]	82.76	83	85
*Guess of 100% ignored as they are technically impossible due to truncating.

[Winn]

Ok, here is how this round is going to work. The game might end at any time. If we get up to 10 weeks, anyone who made 8 guesses will be prize eligible. The contest will automatically end at 15 weeks. Anyone with 12 guesses at that point is prize eligible. Anyone who made a full 15 guesses will have their worst guess removed for the final scoring for prizes.

There will only be prizes if people donate them. If you have an extra copy of a movie, feel free to let me know you want to add it to the prize pool.

SCORING RULES

There have been some questions about how scoring works. The score used to determine the winner of the contest is an average of all picks.

Tie breakers:

1- # of perfect picks.
2- # of picks off by 1.
3- # of picks off by 2.
4- Earliest perfect pick.
5- Earliest pick off by 1.
6- Earliest pick off by 2.
7- Coin toss.

[Jim Morrison]

83:17

[gre8t1]

85:15

[Blu Titan]

85:15

[Irishwiseguy2006]

80:20

[tiger roach]

86:14

Trying again with the same numbers from last week.

[Goodguy818]

81:19

[GregBlu5]

82-18

[darkwing]

80:20

[grovey]

80:20

[patrick99]

80:20

[Blubaru]

75:25

[Pellaeon]

Hmmm.....

79:21

[bbg]

85:15

[digibob]

82:18

[unreal1080p]

81:19

[Fozziwig]

83:17

[blujacket]

84-16