AVS Forum's HDTVFAN0001: "Blu-ray to die next"

[grip24]

Hey guys ...i just read this and want it to share...........lol


HD DVD demise is just Phase 1 - Blu Ray next

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With the HD DVD platform going south in a hurray now, look for the other shoe to fall in the months ahead - Blu Ray will also fail. While BD will surely gloat that they have won the format war - the fact is, they will have won the battle, but will become a casualty of the overall war themselves - the SD to HD disk conversion war.

There are 4 main reasons:

1) The main objection to Blu Ray is its higher price, and there are no signs to indicate this will change in 2008 - in fact, the next generation units will remain at least in the $400 - $700 price range for some time.

2) Since there are now about 850,000 Blu Ray players out there (excluding PS3 untis), and ALL of those are incapabile of supporting the next generation v1.1 Java, some of the new audio codecs, and certainly anything around (lack of Ethernet connectivity and downloads, that means there will be about 850,000 semi-orphaned owners out there who will be less than pleased that a number of features of upcoming BD disks 6 months from now simply won't work on their boxes. Buyers remorse will make folks gun shy to get another still another (expensive) replacement BD unit.

3) Adoption of Blu Ray and HD DVD disks combined (for the past year through right now) still is virtually microscopic when compared to standard DVDs. When a new blockbuster comes out, HD disks in both HD DVD and Blu Ray sell a couple hundred thousands copies, while their SD counterpart sells Millions and Millions. In short - no one seems to have any incentive to switch, especially with all the upconverting players out there and disks selling for sub-$13 all the time.

4) While there are indeed several Million PS3 units in the market, and they (unlike their dedicated Blu Ray player counterparts) are not as adversely affected by the new v1.1 standards (most can be migrated to PS3) - these people to date have been renters of disks as opposed to buyers of disks by exponential margins. And the renting has not been all that aggressive in numbers either, but they have been better than purchases of BD. That won't keep the studios happy for very long.

When you add all this up...you have the formula for Blu Ray following in HD DVD's footsteps in relatively short order.

Unless next generation Blu Ray players sell in the sub $200 range before year end, and unless the BD disks sell for sub $20 (which Sony has repeatedly publically said they would NOT do), look for Sony to pull the plug by the end of this year or very early after the holiday season because of floundering sales of both players and disks.


heres the link http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=995200

[Marcusarilius]

Yes. Bull-ray will be dead within the week now. No hope at this point.

[turboedguy]

[JasonR]

[OokieSpookie]

Good news is great to post but if I want to read fud and crap I would go to the other forums that this stuff comes from.

[cartman781]

[Ascended_Saiyan]

LMAO. By the time Blu-ray is dead, your kids will probably be in or out of college.

[Marcusarilius]

Originally Posted by OokieSpookie

Good news is great to post but if I want to read fud and crap I would go to the other forums that this stuff comes from.

Amazon won't let them.

[cartier]

I could have sworn that you need the support of movie studios in order to offer legal downloads. I must have been mistaken. I can see Disney, WB, Fox, and especially Sony execs jumping on the download bandwagon its not like they have staked millions of dollars and their jobs on the success of Blu-ray.

[The Don]

people have been wondering that if this format war were to end that we might see less deals on BD's and players...

but we still have DVD and the potential threat of Downloads in the future...

downloads meet Divx.....Divx, meet downloads....now play nice you two..

[Marcusarilius]

Originally Posted by cartier

I could have sworn that you need the support of movie studios in order to offer legal downloads. I must have been mistaken. I can see Disney, WB, Fox, and especially Sony execs jumping on the download bandwagon its not like they have staked millions of dollars and their jobs on the success of Blu-ray.

No. Just a white wall, a dark room and a projector to make some good hand puppets.

[pedigree]

Originally Posted by Ascended_Saiyan

LMAO. By the time Blu-ray is dead, your kids will probably be in or out of college.

seriously, and by then they'll be transmitting hd signals directly to our brains

[MatrixS2000]

Originally Posted by grip24

HD DVD demise is just Phase 1 - Blu Ray next

<SNIP>

heres the link http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=995200

Best quote from that thread...and probably the most accurate:

A bunch of people that were completely wrong on hddvd are now predicting the next step on home theater tech?

Pardon me awhile I laugh.

[Slapper]

[crystal_sun]

This is like saying the high speed internet is dead LOL

Whoever wrote that, I feel sorry for you.

[T-Wrecks]

Because it will be interesting to see a "reality vs. their reality" at some point in the future.

I personally can't WAIT for the next step up from cable connections...Maybe by then prices will fall and my cable will be worth it. WHAT? It won't go DOWN? And the next step up for terabyte downloads will be more expensive??? And this guy is talking price-point about BLU-RAY?????


Snicker.

[gamer2600]

Thats not going to happen. Players will continue to drop in price as the year goes on. You can already get movies for under $20...its called Amazon. Most of the blu-ray players are PS3's and if it does fail so what you still have a kick ass video game console.

The only reason blu-ray would possibly fail is people's ignorance towards the technology. People still don't get the whole HD thing. Obviously everyone on this forum does we are more tech savvy (lack of a better term). People buy 1080P TVs and they don't even know what that is and or capable of. They just get it because their neighbor/friend has one. They think because they have a 1080P TV they are going to get a 1080P signal from everything.

I was in best buy the other day and a man was looking at HD-DVD players (lol) and an employee came by and the man asked the employee why they were so cheap ($160 and $140), the employee said they are just "blowing them out". The man continued to look at both models and went with the $140 one not for any other reason other than it was cheaper. Thats just it people are uneducated about what all this stuff does or can do.

I don't think that blu-ray is going to die I just think that it is going to continue to be a "boutique" format until the prices drop which I see happening around holiday season of this year.

[Mobe1969]

Anyone here remember what they paid for their first DVD player? God they were expensive. Even the PS2 was expensive. I paid more for my PS2 than I did for my PS3, and it is sooo much more. Even taking away the Blu Ray and gaming asskickery of it, it has more base components than the PS2 - a hard drive, and wireless lan, wired lan, and bluetooth.

[dgator783]

"blu-rayers never say die!"

[peterb1972]

I find it funny to see coments like this. Here is the bottom line (from my point of view)

A lot of people are buying HDTVs and they are waiting for the official death of one of the formats (enter HD-DVD) before investing more money into their home entertainment rooms. I would project easily 6 - 8 Million BD Players by end of 2008 if we hear the Toshiba news within the next few weeks. The average joe felt way too uneasy about spending without knowing if their format was going to last. I made the decision in December because things were slightly pointing Blu, but most I work with just have the HDTVs, they will soon be out in full force after Toshiba throws in the towel.