Nielsen Prediction Thread for 29.02.08 (due Wednesday 27.02.08)

[Winn]

The war is over but it looks like we might get numbers for a while longer. Oh, and we cannot let the last thread end with everyone going over. We have to have some dignity around here.

HD DVD (R.I.P.) is going to be doing the zombie thing for a while. While formally dead, there are still a few last gasps. All HD DVD releases are now, at best, timed exclusives likely to make their way to Blu sooner or later.

Warner's Invasion finally gets a formal release. Universal's American Gangster is also out this week.

Blu-ray has Warner's release of Michael Clayton and In the Valley of Elah. There are also several concerts from Eagle's Rock and Sony's Run Lola Run.

Obviously, the big news that will impact sales is Toshiba announcing the end of HD DVD.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Please make your prediction with BD:HD even if you are going to predict HD DVD winning the week. Also, you are predicting the BD numbers, the HD DVD is implied. If I am confused, I will ask you for clarification if there is time before the deadline. Otherwise, you are stuck with how I read it.

The prediction period will close at 5 P.M Eastern time. That is 2 P.M. for those of you in Pacific time. This will get us ahead of the leaks. The numbers on February 29thwill cover sales from February 18th-February 24th, inclusive.

HD DVD
Galaxina (BCI)
American Gangster (Universal)
Invasion (Warner)

Blu-ray
Run Lola Run (Sony)
Deep Purple: Live at Montreux 2006 (Eagle Rock)
Santana: Hymns for Peace - Live at Montreux 2004 (Eagle Rock)
In The Valley of Elah (Warner)
Night of the Werewolf/Vengeance of the Zombies (BCI)
Michael Clayton (Warner)
Yes: Live at Montreux 2003 (Eagle Rock)
Winn is online now Report Post Edit/Delete Message

[Winn]

Nielsen contest results for 02/22/2008

Correct Nielsen/VideoScan ratio : 73:27

NAME                Guess   Attempts   Avg. Score
Imakida             83:17          5         3.00
bageleaterkkjji     83:17          4         3.50
SGRSBSKIER          82:18          5         4.00
Kairav              84:16          5         4.20
ottscay             84:16          5         4.60
Slapper             81:19          4         4.75
BluWave             86:14          4         5.00
kenga236            78:22          1         5.00
Solowist            78:22          1         5.00
BlueNeon            85:15          5         5.20
w tanoto            85:15          5         5.40
JadedRaverLA        88:12          4         5.50
Rup_Muk             86:14          4         5.50
tuku                85:15          4         5.50
Pellaeon            89:11          5         5.60
Winn                88:12          5         5.60
fomoco04            83:17          5         5.60
FFObsessed          86:14          4         5.75
jknuss01            85:15          4         5.75
L or S of Perfect?  86:14          5         5.80
patrick99           85:15          5         5.80
subgun              86:14          4         6.00
Lou-Cipher          84:16          4         6.00
HeavyHitter         83:17          3         6.00
darkprime           81:19          2         6.00
peterb1972          79:21          1         6.00
unreal1080p         90:10          5         6.20
sj001               86:14          5         6.20
Clark Kent          88:12          4         6.25
Goodguy818          85:15          4         6.25
DJeffries           84:16          4         6.25
jimsch42            84:16          4         6.25
JPEncarnac          84:16          4         6.25
grovey              85:15          3         6.33
blindcat87          87:13          5         6.40
GarettP             87:13          5         6.40
whoelse             84:16          5         6.40
kolasi              87:13          4         6.50
Ispoke              85:15          4         6.50
josurr              85:15          4         6.50
Denzelio            82:18          4         6.50
Jackietreehorn      84:16          3         6.67
xmositox            88:12          4         6.75
AVBill              85:15          4         6.75
Jim L               85:15          4         6.75
jkwest              88:12          4         7.00
waled               87:13          4         7.00
Elandyll            86:14          4         7.00
bludon              85:15          2         7.00
MacHaggis           85:15          2         7.00
klac                90:10          5         7.20
Fozziwig            84:16          5         7.20
JAGUAR1977          88:12          4         7.25
cabezon1184         85:15          4         7.25
Neo65               85:15          3         7.33
gand41f             90:10          5         7.40
digibob             93:7           4         7.50
pokerface           88:12          2         7.50
cobwebb             87:13          2         7.50
56@Yamamoto         86:14          2         7.50
Blu-raider          86:14          2         7.50
MarekM              91:9           5         7.60
mhussung            88:12          5         7.60
goodstuff           87:13          4         7.75
BillCable           82:18          4         8.00
Sonny               87:13          3         8.00
Craig Ruchman       85:15          3         8.00
IfeelBlu            85:15          3         8.00
blurayboy           83:17          3         8.00
Mastrodisastro      82:18          3         8.00
Kstrike             88:12          2         8.00
GregBlu5            87:13          4         8.25
gre8t1              86:14          4         8.25
gearyt              85:15          4         8.25
jsb hburg           85:15          4         8.25
blujacket           85:15          4         8.50
kjacobs03           87:13          3         8.67
cory                91:9           3         9.00
NexusFX             89:11          3         9.00
Uxi                 87:13          3         9.00
bbg                 85:15          3         9.00
user friendly       89:11          2         9.00
Alloye              87:13          2         9.00
Nightfury82         82:18          1         9.00
dobyblue            89:11          4         9.25
The Don             89:11          4         9.25
TheRealBob          87:13          4         9.50
Ops2p               91:9           3         9.67
aristotles          87:13          3         9.67
RickD               87:13          3         9.67
Dalese              88:12          4        10.00
AnthonyP            91:9           3        10.00
Living Near Shamu   86:14          3        10.00
WriteSimply         85:15          3        10.00
sanj                86:14          2        10.00
meckel              83:17          1        10.00
MadScientist        91:9           2        10.50
hharrizons          86:14          2        10.50
blu-ray-the-king    89:11          2        11.00
Dew                 84:16          2        11.00
Sporty              81:19          2        11.00
The Big Blue        100:0          4        12.00
cartman781          95:5           3        12.67
Evashun             89:11          3        13.00
katharsis           86:14          1        13.00
Rolo71              91:9           2        13.50
owa                 92:8           2        14.00
The Lurker          90:10          2        14.00
Digital Filmmaker   87:13          1        14.00
cvm                 90:10          2        15.00
bluearth            88:12          1        15.00
SolidBlu            100:0          2        16.50
FEP3108             90:10          1        17.00
Casita              90:10          1        17.00
plee                91:9           1        18.00
Hassoon             91:9           1        18.00
Danger Duck         91:9           1        18.00
PeechCobblerPie     92:8           1        19.00
space2001           96:4           2        19.50
mikey p             99:1           1        26.00
Ray Cathode         100:0          1        27.00

Weekly Stats

Week	Picks	Perfect	High		Actual	Low		Mean	Median	Mode
1	77	5	99 (16) [31]	83	69 (14) [41]	83.12	82	82
2	124	6	99 (17) [82]	82	69 (13) [32]	84.31	84	84
3	145	2	90 (16) [141]	74	69 (15) [2]	82.76	83	85
4	124	14	91 (10) [41]	81	67 (14) [69]	80.24	80	80
5	121	0	99* (26) [121]	73	78 (-5) [0]	86.88	86	85
*Guess of 100% ignored as they are technically impossible due to truncating.

[Winn]

Ok, here is how this round is going to work. The game might end at any time. If we get up to 10 weeks, anyone who made 8 guesses will be prize eligible. The contest will automatically end at 15 weeks. Anyone with 12 guesses at that point is prize eligible. Anyone who made a full 15 guesses will have their worst guess removed for the final scoring for prizes.

There will only be prizes if people donate them. If you have an extra copy of a movie, feel free to let me know you want to add it to the prize pool.

SCORING RULES

There have been some questions about how scoring works. The score used to determine the winner of the contest is an average of all picks.

Tie breakers:

1- # of perfect picks.
2- # of picks off by 1.
3- # of picks off by 2.
4- Earliest perfect pick.
5- Earliest pick off by 1.
6- Earliest pick off by 2.
7- Coin toss.

[Goodguy818]

Im gonna go with 85:15 again

[grovey]

77:23

[GregBlu5]

87-13

[Kayne314]

I'll be a little more optimistic. Lets say... 92:08

[JPEncarnac]

82:18

[Denzelio]

85:15

[BluWave]

Im gonna go with 81:19 about my drop last week!

[Rup_Muk]

Going to play it safe.....despite the Tosh news....

82:18 is my prediction for this week.
Rup.

[GORT]

I will go 90:10 again

[Clark Kent]

87-13

[Fozziwig]

80:20

Still a fair bit of red software to be flushed from the system. There can't be too much left though.

[getblu]

77-23

[pokerface]

I'm going with 79/21 thinking maybe a buy up of red titles before there gone.

[sj001]

Hmmm... with HD-DVD dead at the beginning of last week, I'll shoot for 81:19.

[GarettP]

80:20

[SGRSBSKIER]

71:29

Can this thread be a sticky again?

[MGDTH]

Ill go 82:18