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Old 03-07-2008, 01:51 PM   #1
tron3 tron3 is offline
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Lightbulb How plausible is it to replace blu-ray in the future?

I know this kind of thread has been done before, but this is sort of a new twist. This is to discuss the future of new technologies which might enhance or replace blu-ray one day.

I do NOT want to hear JACK about HDM d/l. Not only is it still a ways off, but all evidence points to it being a "pay per view" rental technology. Let's not compare apples to oranges. Hard media rules.

Most people are still running on 100mbit NIC's and cat 5 cable. 1000gb NIC's and cat 6 cable would be needed as a MINIMUM to get HDM d/l off the ground. Sure, we have tons of fiber to support those speeds now, but a single 1000Gb connection takes the place of ten 100mb users. Therefore, all existing fiber would serve a 10th of the former user base. While that industry is SPENDING billions in attempt to one day overturn blu-ray, the blu-ray industry will be MAKING billions.

Make no doubt about, there are people out there who do NOT want you to own movies. They want only pay-per-view. This is why Divx failed. If Divx was the only option for DVD-type movies, I am certain we would all still be using VCR's today. These kinds of people want to see the end of free TV. Come February 17, 2009 when the analog signal goes away, you think the cable and dish networks are going to sell converter boxes and HD antenna? Are you kidding? They are chomping at the bit for the potential influx of business. Bye-bye free TV, was nice knowing you.

Both myself and Sony have long touted blu-ray as the more "future proof" solution. Not only is it capacious enough to meet the needs of most any movie, the resolution and picture is nothing to sneeze at - even when 1440p becomes a reality. Therefore, a new 1440p format may be sneered at because there is nothing wrong with 1080p. You probably need a screen in excess of 60" to appreciate 1440p. I don't see the market for it being as great as HDTV and blu-ray today. It can't just be better, it has to LOOK AND SOUND better.

While I hope we can see BD75, and BD100 in the future, I think Holographic disc may be the future after blu-ray. Considering the phenominal capacity of Holographic disc, I believe a 3" disc could be enough and evolve into the new player standard. Decreasing the size of the wasted center hole could increase storage space. Look at the tray of ANY disc player, see that recessed area in the middle? That holds 3" disc. It is the next natural step in disc high capacity technology. Don't get me wrong, todays 4-3/4" disc isn't going away and will be supported for a LONG time.

Movies on a flash chip are also possible, but the cost of semi conductor memories are still high and need to drop WAY DOWN to compete. From records, to cd's to (HD) DVD, to blu-ray NOTHING comes close to the cheap production cost of hard pressed media. "flash movies" would be great because they could fit in your pants pocket like a USB dirve, and there would be no moving parts. The alternative to semiconductor memories is, you guessed it, more hard pressed media. A read-only memory stick.

Consider a portable blu-ray player, currently there is none that I can find. I'm sure they are coming and will have high power requirements. Face it, LCD is still a bulb based technology. But those screens suck batteries dry in a few hours. OLED is clearly the technology of choice here. However, even with OLED this is a still a device with moving parts and that eats battery life. Portable "Flash movies" with OLED screens is clearly the best we could hope for. But with smaller portable screens sizes they clearly WON'T be supporting anything better than 720p. Maybe 1080p if production can shrink the pixels enough.

But none of this will be possible unless the studios ALL buy into it at the same time. Thoughts?

Last edited by tron3; 03-07-2008 at 04:10 PM.
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Old 03-07-2008, 02:05 PM   #2
Bobby Henderson Bobby Henderson is offline
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There is no such thing as a "1440p" video format.

Of all the digital post production formats being used that are higher in resolution than 1080p, "1440p" is not one of them. That setting is never going to be used.

Blu-ray Disc and 1080p have at least a good decade at the minimum for being the pinnacle of home video formats for watching movies.

Currently, the 2K format is still the de-facto standard for rendering CGI effects and digital intermediate work for feature films. This is not a big step in resolution above 1080p on Blu-ray -although the bit rates are a LOT higher (at least 1.5Gb/s uncompressed and up to 250Mb/s projected in digital cinemas).

2K will NOT remain the standard forever. 4K is growing in popularity at movie studios for higher profile projects. As computer technology continues to improve at relentless pace, 4K will become very easy for movie studios to use on most feature film projects. High end computing systems are already becoming massively parallel. 10 years from now the average entry level desktop computer will be massively parallel. There's not a lot of 4K product now, but a few years from now just about every feature film will be rendered at that level.

The only constant in digital technology is change. No standard will stay locked in place. It's impossible to buy any digital based product and avoid the eventual need to replace it with something much better. We've already been doing this with our computers, computer software, gaming consoles, phones, music players and more. I see absolutely nothing that lets digital home video formats avoid the same thing.

Over a long enough time line, the 1080p standard for watching pre-recorded movies (not TV or cable broadcasts) is going to change. Eventually there will be enough 4K product (and even movies at higher resolutions than that) to push the market into change again.

Finally, the home video industry is a business. It operates in cycles. All video formats come and eventually go. Eventually the popularity with one format will wane -like we are now seeing with standard DVD. Something new will come along and replace it. The business people want to keep making lots of money. When they see the popularity of one product decline, they make moves to replace it. They also make such moves to get a lead over their competitors.

Blu-ray Disc is at the very beginning of that product cycle, not the end. Anyone trying to pronounce the demise of Blu-ray before it even hits its stride is just being silly. As I said, this format has at least a good 10 years of being on top. And even after that it will still see several year or more of good use before finally disappearing.

Last edited by Bobby Henderson; 03-07-2008 at 02:09 PM.
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Old 03-07-2008, 02:23 PM   #3
tron3 tron3 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobby Henderson View Post
There is no such thing as a "1440p" video format.

Of all the digital post production formats being used that are higher in resolution than 1080p, "1440p" is not one of them. That setting is never going to be used.

....
100 years ago, 480i was not a video format. Not too many years ago, 720p was not a video format. 1080i/p were not video formats. Until a few years ago blu-ray wasn't even a product. SO, not only is 1440p possible but more probable than high cost 4k formats for consumers.

1440p is simply 720p x 2. That means it technically is broadcast capable by using the bandwidth for two 720p channels, instead of trying to further squeeze it in the 1080i bandwidth. We aren't just talking hard media, broadcast TV has to be considered to get Ultra HDTV off the ground.

You want to try to broadcast 4k signals? Be my guest buddy, but that requires a lot of bandwidth. Thus, fewer broadcast channels. Not to mention the TV studios are in no rush to upgrade equipment again!

People are still holding on to the old sets because cable boxes will support them. Make no bones about it, It will be a good 10+ years or more before most everyone has trashed that old SD TV set.

Last edited by tron3; 03-07-2008 at 02:27 PM.
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Old 03-07-2008, 02:28 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tron3 View Post
Both myself and Sony have long touted blu-ray as the more "future proof" solution. Not only is it capacious enough to meet the needs of most any movie, the resolution and picture is nothing to sneeze at - even when 1440p becomes a reality. Therefore, a new 1440p format may be sneered at because there is nothing wrong with 1080p. You probably need a screen in excess of 60" to appreciate 1440p. I don't see the market for it being as great as HDTV and blu-ray today. It can't just be better, it has to LOOK AND SOUND better.

While I hope we can see BD75, and BD100 in the future, I think Holographic disc may be the future after blu-ray.
My suggestion would be to have the ability to pay for and download extension layers for the higher resolutions, and store those on flash or HDD.

Pop the disc in, put the flash in the slot (or the player discovers the HDD data), and the player would combine the data to create the higher resolution. The core 1080p, plus the audio and extras would be carried on BD. This makes BD a long term format.

The cost of developing 75/100GB replication or figuring out a way of replicating holgraphic discs is probably too great considering that >1080p will always be a niche market. 1080p is the NTSC of today. It will probably dominate for 50 years.

Gary
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Old 03-07-2008, 02:30 PM   #5
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It's TV sets that are the bottle neck. for 50 years it was PAL/NTSC and all of a sudden everyone has to think about 720/1080p. i think it will be a long long time before everyone will invest in the next resolution evolution ( ) i suspect at least 20 years.
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Old 03-07-2008, 02:30 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dialog_gvf View Post
My suggestion would be to have the ability to pay for and download extension layers for the higher resolutions, and store those on flash or HDD.

Pop the disc in, put the flash in the slot (or the player discovers the HDD data), and the player would combine the data to create the higher resolution. The core 1080p, plus the audio and extras would be carried on BD. This makes BD a long term format.

The cost of developing 75/100GB replication or figuring out a way of replicating holgraphic discs is probably too great considering that >1080p will always be a niche market. 1080p is the NTSC of today. It will probably dominate for 50 years.

Gary
Now Gary, you were the one arguing with me about this last week!
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Old 03-07-2008, 02:51 PM   #7
tron3 tron3 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dialog_gvf View Post
My suggestion would be to have the ability to pay for and download extension layers for the higher resolutions, and store those on flash or HDD.

Pop the disc in, put the flash in the slot (or the player discovers the HDD data), and the player would combine the data to create the higher resolution. The core 1080p, plus the audio and extras would be carried on BD. This makes BD a long term format.

The cost of developing 75/100GB replication or figuring out a way of replicating holgraphic discs is probably too great considering that >1080p will always be a niche market. 1080p is the NTSC of today. It will probably dominate for 50 years.

Gary
Not a bad idea Gary, but now you are telling people their media must come in two parts for ONE movie. That is a hard concept to try to sell. But I whole very much agree on digital ATSC being around the next 50 years, even if higher resolutions come about.

Let's reconsider my 1440p picture idea again. First, a little history to understand my concept. When color TV first came out how was this broadcast still compatible with B&W TV? B&W TV only had to read "intensity" to give us grey scale to get a picture. Color TV still has "intensity" but included a chroma signal for color. Combine the two, and you get color tv. The chroma signal was invisible to B&W TV because it could not read it. But it could still read the intensity signal. Viola, the best of both worlds.

1440p would broadcast in similar fashion. The ATSC tuner of today cannot read 1440p. So now you split the picture into two 720p broadcasts. The first 720p signal is read and displayed as usual. The second half of the 720p signal can only be read by the enhanced ATSC tuner with TV supporting a 1440p picture. Therefore combine the two and you get a 1440p picture and still support everyone with one broadcast.

"...it ...COULD..... WORK!" -Dr. Frankenstein / Young Frankenstein
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Old 03-07-2008, 02:57 PM   #8
supersix4 supersix4 is offline
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lol god cant we enjoy blu-ray now? these kinds of posts are like the kids who say the day after madden 08 comes out hmm I wonder what 09 will be like lets just enjoy blu-ray.
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Old 03-07-2008, 03:06 PM   #9
tron3 tron3 is offline
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Originally Posted by supersix14 View Post
lol god cant we enjoy blu-ray now? these kinds of posts are like the kids who say the day after madden 08 comes out hmm I wonder what 09 will be like lets just enjoy blu-ray.
"Does anyone care what this guy thinks?" - Homer / The Simpsons.

Just breaking on you, dude.

Hey, guys like us are the ones who dream up radio, and TV, and HDTV. If it were not for Italian Inventor Marconi, who invented radio, we might not have TV today.

Last edited by tron3; 03-10-2008 at 12:30 PM.
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Old 03-07-2008, 03:07 PM   #10
Luis_A51 Luis_A51 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dialog_gvf View Post
1080p is the NTSC of today. It will probably dominate for 50 years.

Gary
Agreed.

Why do people assume they need more than 1080p? The vast majority of us will never be able to tell the difference between 1080p and 1440p on our 60" and lower tvs.

To OP:
You think cable companies are gonna want to dedicate twice the space for aingle Ultra HD channel? HA! They barely have enough for the measly amount of HD channels they have now. It'll be AGES before they consider something like that. Pretty much everyone would say that current broadcast HD is overcompressed as is.
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Old 03-07-2008, 03:08 PM   #11
Brian Cash Brian Cash is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobby Henderson View Post
There is no such thing as a "1440p" video format.

Of all the digital post production formats being used that are higher in resolution than 1080p, "1440p" is not one of them. That setting is never going to be used.

Blu-ray Disc and 1080p have at least a good decade at the minimum for being the pinnacle of home video formats for watching movies.

Currently, the 2K format is still the de-facto standard for rendering CGI effects and digital intermediate work for feature films. This is not a big step in resolution above 1080p on Blu-ray -although the bit rates are a LOT higher (at least 1.5Gb/s uncompressed and up to 250Mb/s projected in digital cinemas).

2K will NOT remain the standard forever. 4K is growing in popularity at movie studios for higher profile projects. As computer technology continues to improve at relentless pace, 4K will become very easy for movie studios to use on most feature film projects. High end computing systems are already becoming massively parallel. 10 years from now the average entry level desktop computer will be massively parallel. There's not a lot of 4K product now, but a few years from now just about every feature film will be rendered at that level.

The only constant in digital technology is change. No standard will stay locked in place. It's impossible to buy any digital based product and avoid the eventual need to replace it with something much better. We've already been doing this with our computers, computer software, gaming consoles, phones, music players and more. I see absolutely nothing that lets digital home video formats avoid the same thing.

Over a long enough time line, the 1080p standard for watching pre-recorded movies (not TV or cable broadcasts) is going to change. Eventually there will be enough 4K product (and even movies at higher resolutions than that) to push the market into change again.

Finally, the home video industry is a business. It operates in cycles. All video formats come and eventually go. Eventually the popularity with one format will wane -like we are now seeing with standard DVD. Something new will come along and replace it. The business people want to keep making lots of money. When they see the popularity of one product decline, they make moves to replace it. They also make such moves to get a lead over their competitors.

Blu-ray Disc is at the very beginning of that product cycle, not the end. Anyone trying to pronounce the demise of Blu-ray before it even hits its stride is just being silly. As I said, this format has at least a good 10 years of being on top. And even after that it will still see several year or more of good use before finally disappearing.


Read this Article before you start saying stuff that is not true

http://boardsus.playstation.com/play...7175#U27027175
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Old 03-07-2008, 03:15 PM   #12
OokieSpookie OokieSpookie is offline
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I kind of lean with Wicky on this one when he said:
Quote:
4K will not be brought out at home, it's for theatrical presentation and mastering only.
https://forum.blu-ray.com/showpost.p...2&postcount=16
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Old 03-07-2008, 03:16 PM   #13
Bobby Henderson Bobby Henderson is offline
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SO, not only is 1440p possible but more probable than high cost 4k formats for consumers.
No one making any content to support that. Further, there are NO screens of any kind that support 2560 X 1440. Not even any computer screens.

It does not matter at all if "1440p" is double the pixel height and width of 720p. No one is supporting that resolution standard. Further, no one is ever going to support that setting either.

The closest thing you're ever going to see in the near term is more games supporting 30" widescreen computer monitors and their 2560 X 1600 resolution. But no movies are being rendered in that format. The next quality jump on movie production is 4K. The only thing under it is 2K. There is nothing in between. 1440p is never going to happen.

Quote:
You want to try to broadcast 4k signals? Be my guest buddy, but that requires a lot of bandwidth.
Did I say anything about broadcast formats? NO.

Over the air broadcasts, satellite broadcasts and most digital cable TV broadcasts are stuck with their 720p/60 and 1080i/60 standards for the forseeable future. There's not enough bandwidth for them to go any higher. And since most TV broadcast outfits have all sorts of antiquated museum piece gear they're still keeping alive, it would be very difficult or just plain impossible for them to support 1080p/30 or 1080p/24 in broadcasts.

Nevertheless, broadcast TV is a totally separate thing from pre-recorded on disc home video formats.

A disc based video format has a LOT more potential than anything that can be broadcast. The video quality and bit rates on many Blu-ray Discs already far outstrips what can be squeezed in a 6MHz broadcast signal.

That also means it will be impossible to broadcast in the "1440p" format you keep mentioning. 720p/60 and 1080i/60 are pretty much it for broadcasting in HD for a quite a long time to come. Probably decades to come.
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Old 03-07-2008, 03:22 PM   #14
supersix4 supersix4 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tron3 View Post
"Does anyone care what this guy thinks?" - Homer / The Simpsons.

Just breaking on you, dude.

Hey, guys like us are the ones who dream up radio, and TV, and HDTV. If it were not for Italian Inventor Marconi, who inented radio, we might not have TV today.
I know, im just saying almost every day there is some 1440p or 2084508345308p ... lol just enjoy it not worth getting worked up over 1440p 9000p 10000p w/e lol
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Old 03-07-2008, 03:30 PM   #15
supersix4 supersix4 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trentv85050 View Post
1280x(720x2) = 2560x1440. 1920x(1080x2) = 3840x2160. http://www.superwarehouse.com/Toshib...s/b/269/c/1876
those contrast ratios are terrible lol
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Old 03-07-2008, 03:31 PM   #16
Brian Cash Brian Cash is offline
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man i cant wait for a 1440p i wonder whos going to be the first to come out with it prob sony haha
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Old 03-07-2008, 03:32 PM   #17
Brian Cash Brian Cash is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supersix14 View Post
those contrast ratios are terrible lol
yeah i couldnt believe the contrast ratio when i saw the price for those must be out of there damn mind
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Old 03-07-2008, 03:41 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by robgmun View Post
It's TV sets that are the bottle neck. for 50 years it was PAL/NTSC and all of a sudden everyone has to think about 720/1080p. i think it will be a long long time before everyone will invest in the next resolution evolution ( ) i suspect at least 20 years.
At least 20 years that is a very bold statement. The way technology growth is exploding I highly doubt that statement will even be close to reality.
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Old 03-07-2008, 04:03 PM   #19
tron3 tron3 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trentv85050 View Post
1280x(720x2) = 2560x1440. 1920x(1080x2) = 3840x2160. http://www.superwarehouse.com/Toshib...s/b/269/c/1876
Holy crap, so they already DO exsit! Those must be for CGI developers at those prices. What the heck supports that, otherwise?

I would agree the current broadcast HD picture isn't what I once thought it was. Blu-ray stole all the thunder. But we need a broadcast standard which could and should live on as the next defacto standard.

But 1080p isn't broadcast, only 1080i is broadcast. The conversion to 1080p occurs at the TV level.

Last edited by tron3; 03-10-2008 at 12:31 PM.
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Old 03-07-2008, 04:13 PM   #20
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It's very unlikely anytime soon. Most households don't have a HDTV of any kind. Most stations are still 480i, and cable and even fiber optic carriers are struggling to deliver more than a handful of heavily compressed 720p/1080i stations on their networks. DVD still owns the home video market by a gigantic marign.

And there would be almost nothing to watch anytime soon that would see a NOTICABLE gain in quality going over 1080p anyway.
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