Phloyd's Bold (?) Predictions for Year End

[phloyd]

Ok, some of these may not be so bold, but feel free to discuss or disagree...

Perhaps we can revisit at year end and see how I did

1) Paramount and WB will release BD and HD DVD discs with VC-1. This will render the 'image quality' argument in favour of HD DVD moot since both formats will inherently have the same encoding for the video in the cases where you have a choice of formats.

Edit: WB released VC-1 BDs on Sept 5, but it seems that Paramount is releasing MPEG2 but good quality discs none the less

2) PS3 will be launched and will effectively offer a BD player for $499 (or $599 with HDMI). This will render arguments in favour of the HD DVD being a cheaper player alternative moot.

Edit: News is that the cheaper PS3 will also be HDMI, equalling the retail of the HD-A1 player

3) By year end there will be more PS3s and BD players in households than HD DVD players. This will render arguments that HD DVD has a bigger install base moot.

Edit: vgcharts is saying 1.2 M players. Not sure what 360 add-on sold, but confident that more PS3s than HD DVDs at this point

The following may happen by year end though confidence is not high enough for me to call them a prediction. I think end of Q1 2007 is a more likely date.

1) 50 GB Bluray pressed discs go into mass production.

Edit: Looks like this will be true with releases mid November!

Edit2: Big titles like Superman Returns are on BD50 - BDA has done well to get so many BD50 releases in 2006!

2) Columbia Tristar authors a reference quality BD

Edit: Empire of the Sun?

I think prediction 3 carries some interesting weight in the light of the Joe Six Pack discussions. PS3 will likely put BD playing capability in the hands of people who are not so picky about image quality. Also the movie option is secondary to the gaming so I don't think I would equate a PS3 owner with an HD DVD player owner since the essential intent is different. Though while we might expect the PS3 owners to buy less movie discs, there should be many more of them than HD DVD players so it could easily result in a lot of movies sold.

In any case, assuming I am correct with my predictions there is not much left to differentiate between the formats. In my opinion the key remaining consideration is content. And that not only applied to titles but also to extras etc. WB could become part of that equation if they continue to make feature reduced BD discs even after they start using VC-1.

All else being equal it comes down to the content.

[Psiweaver]

I think that your predictions are in a large part very similar to what I envision for the rest of the year though I think that the samsung will be dropping in price too.

[zombie]

Originally Posted by phloyd

1) Paramount and WB will release BD and HD DVD discs with VC-1. This will render the 'image quality' argument in favour of HD DVD moot since both formats will inherently have the same encoding for the video in the cases where you have a choice of formats.

2) PS3 will be launched and will effectively offer a BD player for $499 (or $599 with HDMI). This will render arguments in favour of the HD DVD being a cheaper player alternative moot.

3) By year end there will be more PS3s and BD players in households than HD DVD players. This will render arguments that HD DVD has a bigger install base moot.

Agreed on all three counts.

The following may happen by year end though confidence is not high enough for me to call them a prediction. I think end of Q1 2007 is a more likely date.

1) 50 GB Bluray pressed discs go into mass production.

2) Columbia Tristar authors a reference quality BD

By the end of Q1 2007 sounds about right to me as well.

In any case, assuming I am correct with my predictions there is not much left to differentiate between the formats. In my opinion the key remaining consideration is content. And that not only applied to titles but also to extras etc. WB could become part of that equation if they continue to make feature reduced BD discs even after they start using VC-1.

All else being equal it comes down to the content.

Again, agreed. My issues with Blu-ray have not been that it can't win this format war by providing superb HD quality but rather why couldn't they start off with it like their competition did?

[Psiweaver]

The reason they didn't start out as well is becuase they were the ones who were supposed to walk all over HD DVD and so they poured less effort into the launch because they convinced themselves that there was no way they could lose.

[zombie]

Originally Posted by Psiweaver

The reason they didn't start out as well is becuase they were the ones who were supposed to walk all over HD DVD and so they poured less effort into the launch because they convinced themselves that there was no way they could lose.

Apparently so.

[Psiweaver]

Well I can't figure out any other reason why they would launch sooo poorly.

[phloyd]

I think that they failed to win the early game because some of the key innovations could not be achieved in the correct time frame and it was important to do something.

The keyest of those is the 50GB disc. Had they achieved that by launch I think things would look significantly different.

Apparently their authoring and encoding was also not ready for prime time.

Warner should have had VC-1 BDs from day one and that was not possible.

Though it looks like Paramount will have VC-1 from day one on BD which is great.

Indeed HD DVD was less innovative and was up to speed faster... though still really late if you recall.

[Psiweaver]

Thats all very true I just think they had less desire and drive to bring to market an amazing product simply becuase they weren't the underdogs they were in the ones in the drivers seat and felt like they couldn't be touched.

[phloyd]

They still see themselves as not the underdogs. Andy Parsons clearly sees it is a won battle.

Perhaps I should add the prediction that there will be much angst and sadness in the HD DVD AVSForum as each of these predictions become true... hahah

[Applefiend]

Yup. Real launch day for BD is November 17th, what we have now is a preview.

[hmurchison]

now for a Reality Check

1 Equivalent quality with HD DVD means nothing. Blu-Ray was hyped as being the next "BIG" thing and they dropped the ball. There are already hundreds of reviews slamming the initial launch movies (although a fair many are very good). Just claiming equivalence to HD DVD as some sort of positive benchmark is pathetic.

2 Not everyone wants a game console for a BD player. The PS2 was never a great DVD player but it was passable. I'm thinking that you're setting yourself up for disappointment if you think a game console is going to offer the same fluid experience that a dedicated player does. We'll see but history is not on your side.

3 Game consoles are for gaming first and foremost. Soon we'll have data on how many gamers watch movies on their consoles. I'm still not sold on the PS3 theory. It seems a little weak and if it doesn't go your way. Games are expensive enough without trying to get these people to buy movies.

Here's my prognostications

1. European launch of HD DVD goes well. New hardware is slimmer and faster functioning. There is ample supply for the UK.

2. The PS3 launches and sells out. Only available initially in bundles. Ebay has PS3s for as high as $2000.

3. Microsoft's HD DVD add on ships for $199. See's high initial sales but a dropoff after a few months.

4. No BD50 movies shipped in 2006

5. EU pressure on studios has some thinking of cross platform support if they aren't already. Buena Vista/Disney falls first. Lionsgate falls next. Fox and Universal remain stubborn

6. More CE vendors for Blu-Ray...HD DVD picks up a couple of new vendors with unique designs.

7. HD DVD movie sales continue to rise. Blu-Ray gains as well. It's obvious there will be no clear victor soon.

8. Alan Parsons finally gets a clue. Joins the HD DVD Promotion Group <hardy har har>

[JimPullan]

Wow, was I surprised to read all the above comments. Where are all the techno-freeks with all their demands for the 'perfect' Blu-Ray player be included in this 1st generation player being introduced soon. Are we awakening to the fact it takes time to evolve towards nirvana. There is a unique balance between hardware and software too come together that will yield the 'perfect' experience. Are you aware that their are even higher resolutions on the R&D table right now ? As for people like us, "We will never Arrive . . it's they journey that gets us off" So, simply enjoy the journey !!!

Jim

[BTBuck1]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

now for a Reality Check

1 Equivalent quality with HD DVD means nothing. Blu-Ray was hyped as being the next "BIG" thing and they dropped the ball. There are already hundreds of reviews slamming the initial launch movies (although a fair many are very good). Just claiming equivalence to HD DVD as some sort of positive benchmark is pathetic.

There comes a point where HD is HD. SAHARA on HDDVD & STEALTH on Blu RAY are perfect examples of this. To assume Blu Ray will ever LOOK better would be pretty presumptuous. Where the whole "BEYOND HD" comes in is with Studio extra's, Interactivity & Tons of Next gen audio tracks to choose from. Blu Ray has more ability based on specs, So Far HDDVD has done a better job delivering. But until some of the 1st party titles for Sony start comming out swinging there will be no clear victor, as 3rd party studios (warner/Paramount) seem to be trying to stay neautral and deliver the same goods for both (atleast for now) we'll see once 50gb DL hits.

2 Not everyone wants a game console for a BD player. The PS2 was never a great DVD player but it was passable. I'm thinking that you're setting yourself up for disappointment if you think a game console is going to offer the same fluid experience that a dedicated player does. We'll see but history is not on your side.

Your right not everyone does, Not everyone likes sushi either (me included) But to dismiss it as a huge part in all this is a bit naive (not saying you are) I personally think it and the xbox360 ad on will have solid performance because they have supercomputers powering them. the HD-A1 has gotten stellar reviews and it's nowhere near the computing power that 360 or ps3 will be. (albeit HD-A1 was designed soley for movie playback) History is on BR's side as ps2 is/was a major factor in the explosion of DVD in 2000/2001

3 Game consoles are for gaming first and foremost. Soon we'll have data on how many gamers watch movies on their consoles. I'm still not sold on the PS3 theory. It seems a little weak and if it doesn't go your way. Games are expensive enough without trying to get these people to buy movies.

Microsoft kevin Collins-Sr. Programmer said in a recent press conferance: and I quote "All the audio and video processing is done inside the Xbox," said Collins, who noted that research has shown that a majority of Xbox owners already own high-definition displays." Obviously xbox360 alone sold alot of HDTV's (I for one remember and still see today lots of customers buying HD sets to go with their new 360's) the same thing will happen when PS3 comes out. And those customers aren't going to limit their HD experience to Games. EVERYONE loves Movies. And HD is like a drug. How many of us watch programming we'd never even give a second look to just because it's High Def? I know I do. To Dismiss PS3 as a Trojan Horse for Mass adoption of Blu Ray Movie is pretty short sighted, Even if only 10% ever bought movies than by Sony's prediction of 7 million consoles by end of fiscal 07 that we'd have 700,000 people supporting Blu Ray. Thats only 10%. & not including sales of other players from like 5 other manufacturers by fall. Take yourself out of the hometheatre enthusiast shoes for a minute, you'll see what i'm talking about.

Here's my prognostications

1. European launch of HD DVD goes well. New hardware is slimmer and faster functioning. There is ample supply for the UK.

Well this is the internet, we aren't confined to magazines etc. lets see that hardware! I'd guess the Euro's will get the same PC in A BOX everyone else has gotten. No new hardware has been shown anywhere besides the xbox360 add on. And Toshiba has already dismissed rumors of 2nd gen hardware anytime this fiscal year. Probably a good reason why nobody but Toshiba makes HDDVD is nobody else is going to subsidize Toshiba's vested interest. Samsung & LG aren't going to lose money...they've finally realized they need to take a side in this (atleast for now) This is where HDDVD could be doomed. Great Software and consumer support, but how long can Toshiba take a loss to make customers happy? If they fail to sell 600,000 to 700,000 units this year they've already admitted they won't make a profit. At some point stockholders are going to say...hey what gives? & PS3 and a miriad of blu-ray players comming out isn't helping their cause.

2. The PS3 launches and sells out. Only available initially in bundles. Ebay has PS3s for as high as $2000.

Mostl Likely.

3. Microsoft's HD DVD add on ships for $199. See's high initial sales but a dropoff after a few months.

Agreed, I don't think they'll be any "lines" for this, it will be overshadowed by PS3 hype.

4. No BD50 movies shipped in 2006

Joe Kaine already spoke to two movies being out on BD50 this year along with the VC-1 from Disney talk, We'll see though.

5. EU pressure on studios has some thinking of cross platform support if they aren't already. Buena Vista/Disney falls first. Lionsgate falls next. Fox and Universal remain stubborn

It's good to hold onto hope, just don't bet the farm on it. Also I think you are giving too much credit to the PaL crowd, they haven't even been up to par with HDTV yet.

6. More CE vendors for Blu-Ray...HD DVD picks up a couple of new vendors with unique designs.

The Hardware thats been shown is what you'll see in this fiscal year. Nobody is going to miracle a player out for either platform this year. YOu will probably see some designs or working prototypes for both at CES at best.

7. HD DVD movie sales continue to rise. Blu-Ray gains as well. It's obvious there will be no clear victor soon.

I think HDDVD will start to even out & Blu Ray match then exceed sales of HDDVD rapidly in December.

8. Alan Parsons finally gets a clue. Joins the HD DVD Promotion Group <hardy har har>

Oh No You didnt!

[phloyd]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

now for a Reality Check

I like your sense of humour.

Apparently people with PS3 are not going to watch movies but people with XBox will PAY for an ADD ON that is ONLY used to watch movies. And you realise that if PS3 sells out that is millions of installed players right - far in excess of the HD DVD and probably XBox install base.

Hmmm...

I did enjoy your fanciful reality check and look forward to seeing who is correct.

[BTBuck1]

BTW PHLOYD,

I agree with your original post 100%

[Knight-Errant]

The tortoise and the hare.

HD-DVD has a head start, but Blu-ray has more backing.

[hmurchison]

Originally Posted by Brian@BBY

Well this is the internet, we aren't confined to magazines etc. lets see that hardware! I'd guess the Euro's will get the same PC in A BOX everyone else has gotten. No new hardware has been shown anywhere besides the xbox360 add on. And Toshiba has already dismissed rumors of 2nd gen hardware anytime this fiscal year.

Why guess?

http://www.avforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=367701

A few weeks ago we spoke over the phone with Olivier Van Wynendaele, assistant general marketing Toshiba Europe, about the companies’ launch of HD DVD in the UK

AVF: So, can you tell us how much they differ from the US machines?

Tosh: Well, what I can say is that our European players will be based on our second generation chassis, so they will be quite different from the players already available in the US today. I can’t give too much detail but, a few of the drawbacks which were reported to us by users in the USA with our two players there will be solved and therefore additional features not available there will be added to the European players.

NewToshiba hardware is coming. Maybe not for the US but the UK is definitely getting a new chassis.

Originally Posted by Brian@BBY

It's good to hold onto hope, just don't bet the farm on it. Also I think you are giving too much credit to the PaL crowd, they haven't even been up to par with HDTV yet.

Regardless of whether the EU gets involved or not the current state of Studio support is not going to exist as is for much longer. Given a decent amount of sales the longer some studios like BA/Disney and Lionsgate and Fox hold out the more fishy it looks. Ask Microsoft about how willing the EU is to fine a company millions of dollars. In the end it's cheaper to support both platforms and see which one sticks

Originally Posted by phloyd

Apparently people with PS3 are not going to watch movies but people with XBox will PAY for an ADD ON that is ONLY used to watch movies. And you realise that if PS3 sells out that is millions of installed players right - far in excess of the HD DVD and probably XBox install base.

I don't expect the Xbox addon to sell very well because it assists gamers in no way. It is strictly for movies. This means you have assurance that an xbox addon is a 1:1 correlation between device and movies. What I'm hearing about the PS3 is that it it will sell in huge numbers which is true. What you DON'T know is how many of these rabid gamers will give a damn about the movies. It will be interesting indeed to see how many gamers put down the controllers and enjoy a movie or two.

[BTBuck1]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

Why guess?

http://www.avforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=367701

A few weeks ago we spoke over the phone with Olivier Van Wynendaele, assistant general marketing Toshiba Europe, about the companies’ launch of HD DVD in the UK

AVF: So, can you tell us how much they differ from the US machines?

Tosh: Well, what I can say is that our European players will be based on our second generation chassis, so they will be quite different from the players already available in the US today. I can’t give too much detail but, a few of the drawbacks which were reported to us by users in the USA with our two players there will be solved and therefore additional features not available there will be added to the European players.

NewToshiba hardware is coming. Maybe not for the US but the UK is definitely getting a new chassis.

Good stuff...thanks!

[phloyd]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

NewToshiba hardware is coming. Maybe not for the US but the UK is definitely getting a new chassis.

That is interesting. Any clues as to when? Before the end of the year?

I also cannot imagine that they will continue to sell the A1 in the US if a new 'not a PC in a box' player is being made.

My guess is that it will be the same price but with more (some?) profit this time.

[Longshot]

Don't you just love how the HD DVD fanboys claim the XBOX add on will sell like hotcakes but the PS3 will have absolutely no impact on the format war because no-one uses a game console for watching movies!

These idiots always put a smile on my face.