Nielsen Prediction Thread for 21.03.08 (due Wednesday 19.03.08)

[Winn]

Sorry for the quick post, busy night.

There are no neutral releases this week.

As always, thanks to manikin for maintaining the release schedule.


IMPORTANT NOTE: Please make your prediction with BD:HD even if you are going to predict HD DVD winning the week. Also, you are predicting the BD numbers, the HD DVD is implied. If I am confused, I will ask you for clarification if there is time before the deadline. Otherwise, you are stuck with how I read it.

The prediction period will close at 5 P.M Eastern time. That is 2 P.M. for those of you in Pacific time. This will get us ahead of the leaks. The numbers on March 7th will cover sales from February 25th-March 2nd, inclusive.


HD DVD
Fletch (Universal)
Michael Clayton (Warner)
In The Valley of Elah (Warner)

Blu-ray
No Country For Old Men (Disney)
Sleuth (Sony)
Dan in Real Life (Disney)
Independence Day (Fox)
Hitman (Fox)
August Rush (Warner)
Gattaca (Sony)
I, Robot (Fox)
Appleseed Ex Machina (Warner)
Dogma (Sony)

[Winn]

Nielsen contest results for 03/14/2008

Correct Nielsen/VideoScan ratio : 65:35

NAME                Guess   Attempts   Avg. Score
SGRSBSKIER          78:22          8         4.88
getblu              79:21          3         5.00
BluWave             76:24          7         5.14
grovey              73:27          6         5.17
Winn                79:21          8         5.50
Rup_Muk             75:25          7         5.71
Slapper             77:23          7         5.71
subgun              76:24          7         5.71
Pellaeon            77:23          8         5.75
patrick99           77:23          8         5.88
Zotar               76:24          6         6.00
Jackietreehorn      78:22          6         6.17
jknuss01            75:25          6         6.17
sj001               76:24          8         6.25
unreal1080p         78:22          8         6.50
goodstuff           73:27          7         6.71
Ispoke              78:22          7         6.86
w tanoto            80:20          8         7.00
coolmilo            79:21          2         7.00
CptGreedle          80:20          5         7.20
klac                81:19          8         7.25
Denzelio            78:22          7         7.43
gand41f             75:25          8         7.50
blurayboy           80:20          6         7.67
Clark Kent          81:19          7         7.86
blindcat87          78:22          7         8.00
Goodguy818          82:18          6         8.33
TheRealBob          65:35          7         8.71
Craig Ruchman       80:20          5         8.80
GregBlu5            81:19          7        10.14
bbg                 80:20          4        10.50
plee                77:23          4        11.00
56@Yamamoto         83:17          5        11.20
Ops2p               84:16          6        11.83
Rolo71              79:21          5        12.20
MadScientist        80:20          5        12.60
cartman781          86:14          5        14.40
FEP3108             80:20          3        15.00
gamer4eva           82:18          1        17.00

Stats will go here soon.

[Winn]

Ok, here is how this round is going to work. The game might end at any time. If we get up to 10 weeks, anyone who made 8 guesses will be prize eligible. The contest will automatically end at 15 weeks. Anyone with 12 guesses at that point is prize eligible. Anyone who made a full 15 guesses will have their worst guess removed for the final scoring for prizes.

There will only be prizes if people donate them. If you have an extra copy of a movie, feel free to let me know you want to add it to the prize pool.

SCORING RULES

There have been some questions about how scoring works. The score used to determine the winner of the contest is an average of all picks.

Tie breakers:

1- # of perfect picks.
2- # of picks off by 1.
3- # of picks off by 2.
4- Earliest perfect pick.
5- Earliest pick off by 1.
6- Earliest pick off by 2.
7- Coin toss.

[savage1984]

wow... I'm getting sick and tired of hd-dvd's selling... I can't wait for their stocks to deplete so the numbers reflect how the market truly feels. 90-10 or better!!!

[cartman781]

86

[Ice2Dragon]

80:20

Gangster will still be holding up okay, as will clayton.

[blurayboy]

84:16

[sj001]

81:19

Even with the HD-DVD liquidation in effect, Blu should kick ass this week with all the major new releases.

[Ice2Dragon]

Even with the firesales going on at BB, theres way too many high profile releases, Hitman, the first ice age, for HD to come even close to above 20 percent..

[Rolo71]

76:24

[blindcat87]

83:17.

Chris

[jknuss01]

84:16

[AlexCruz]

82:18

[GregBlu5]

85-15

[Ops2p]

I think its time.....91 / 9

[patrick99]

80:20

[grovey]

82:18

[Ispoke]

73:27

[owa]

55:45


Well, picking blu-ray to dominate the sales hasn't worked for me so far. Maybe if I guess that HD DVD will do really well, blu-ray will get the numbers I've been hoping for.

[klac]

78:22