Bluray Will Overtake DvD In 2011

[RustyK94]

If we look at how much HDTV has fallen in price it will no suprise that bluray will have simaler trend. Already there are $200 bluray players going to be on the market by the end of this year, so it will be reasonable to assume. That by the end of 09 we will have $100 bluray players.

The question is when that happens what is the point of the industry selling stand alone dvd players when you can buy both a bluray player and dvd player in one.

With that said production of stand alone dvd players will stop. Thats where i think the major turning point will be. I predict by mid 09 any way that bluray sales for new chart releases, will be at about 40% as the price will have fallen close to that of a new dvd.

After this point bluray will see rapid sales growth and almost complete domination of the rental market.

This is just what i think, hypothetical yes but very plusable ineed.

What do you guys think

[The Guardian]

I think it will be the software people, not the hardware people, who finally kill off DVD.

How? Easy. (this is just a guess..) They'll start putting out REALLY bad DVD encodes (like <1 Mb/s video and the crappiest audio possible) that will make it almost impossible for the upconverting players to do anything with them, thus increasing the apparent advantage of Blu-ray.

[RustyK94]

Originally Posted by The Guardian

I think it will be the software people, not the hardware people, who finally kill off DVD.

How? Easy. (this is just a guess..) They'll start putting out REALLY bad DVD encodes (like <1 Mb/s video and the crappiest audio possible) that will make it almost impossible for the upconverting players to do anything with them, thus increasing the apparent advantage of Blu-ray.

Upconverting is just well horrible. The other thing is bluray is going to last a very long time. To get higher res than 1080p you need a TV of atleast 60inchs so that means ultra HD as some might call it is out of the question.

The only tech that will challenge bluray will be holo, and holo Tv's are like 15 years away. I feel sorry for alot of these ppl that still throw all there money at DvD cause it has such a wide range of titles (granted).

But then again so did VHS, and i think there going to be caught out and feel very shocked. When they see how fast dvd will fall, it's going to be 3 or 4 years not 6 this time.

[Joe Cain]

Originally Posted by The Guardian

I think it will be the software people, not the hardware people, who finally kill off DVD.

How? Easy. (this is just a guess..) They'll start putting out REALLY bad DVD encodes (like <1 Mb/s video and the crappiest audio possible) that will make it almost impossible for the upconverting players to do anything with them, thus increasing the apparent advantage of Blu-ray.

Which is already happening---I own a few films, good films, that have been encoded to cram on a single-layer DVD. I suspect the Wal-Mart $5 bins are full of such treasures...

But I fear that cheap DVDs do more to devalue disc purchasing & the home entertainment experience than they contribute to the recognition of BD's superiority as a premium product.

[RustyK94]

Originally Posted by Joe Cain

Which is already happening---I own a few films, good films, that have been encoded to cram on a single-layer DVD. I suspect the Wal-Mart $5 bins are full of such treasures...

But I fear that cheap DVDs do more to devalue disc purchasing & the home entertainment experience than they contribute to the recognition of BD's superiority as a premium product.

Agree but i don't see downloads or flash cards getting any attention soon (i mean like never)

[Barnum]

Originally Posted by RustyK94

If we look at how much HDTV has fallen in price it will no suprise that bluray will have simaler trend. Already there are $200 bluray players going to be on the market by the end of this year, so it will be reasonable to assume. That by the end of 09 we will have $100 bluray players.

The question is when that happens what is the point of the industry selling stand alone dvd players when you can buy both a bluray player and dvd player in one.

With that said production of stand alone dvd players will stop. Thats where i think the major turning point will be. I predict by mid 09 any way that bluray sales for new chart releases, will be at about 40% as the price will have fallen close to that of a new dvd.

After this point bluray will see rapid sales growth and almost complete domination of the rental market.

This is just what i think, hypothetical yes but very plusable ineed.

What do you guys think

It's nice to have a dream. Really I don't see it happening anywhere near that time frame. The market is so far for HD media is way below what DVD was at this stage of the game. At this point many and I mean many people see no reason to upgrade. Most still feel that DVD is good enough. I still find it amusing that people say that DVD looks and sounds like crap. Until bluray starts selling players at $100 and movies for $5 like at Walmart the format is going no where soon. People want cheap plain and simple.

[tron3]

Originally Posted by RustyK94

Agree but i don't see downloads or flash cards getting any attention soon (i mean like never)

Guess I'll be repeating myself a lot. Digital Downloads are showing all signs of being rental technologies. You have so much time to view them, then you pay to watch it again. No different than movies on demand. You pay each time you watch it. Unless America has a giant brainfart saying, "Hey, why OWN the movie and watch it over and over until the disc melts when we can pay over and over again to watch it?"

Ex: I would like to see "I am Legend". But I don't consider it a movie I want to own, so won't buy it on either DVD or BD. If I want to see it that badly I'll rent it! Oh guess what, we have many rental options to choose from!

Flashcards are expensive. Semi-conductors demand premium prices because they can. Unless a cheap read-only alternative material is available it won't fly. Oh guess what, DVD and BD are hard pressed "non-semi conductor" media! DUH!

I don't think the studios want to screw over the blu-ray devotees after the HD DVD fiasco. It would just hurt consumer confidence to an incredible level. Even non burned consumers will think 3 times about buying from an industry that burned them on Betamax, VHS, Laserdisc, Videodisc, DVD, HD DVD and Lord knows what else I missed.

VHS lived a good 30 years or so. DVD is only 10 and already staring death in the face. HD DVD was a couple of years old and died. It will forever be the 8-track cassette of movie media. You can still buy cassette decks. You can by cd players. Heck, if you look hard enough you can still buy a record player! But you will NEVER be able to buy another HD DVD player to support your old media. At least not in stores.

There will always, always, ALWAYS be a market for hard media. Did I mention the word, "Always"?

[Joe Cain]

Originally Posted by RustyK94

Agree but i don't see downloads or flash cards getting any attention soon (i mean like never)

Well, BD is certainly better-positioned and a more familiar package. I wonder if downloads might be more competitive if the powers-that-be had never bothered with introducing HD DVD and simply spent all that time & energy from the get-go on downloads---without a direct optical storage competitor, BD might have spent another year in development before launch...

But now all this hardware's been sold, and millions of discs, and BD has a certain perceived value & momentum from its triumph in the format war: the head-start v. downloads has put BD in the catbird seat.

[RustyK94]

Originally Posted by Barnum

It's nice to have a dream. Really I don't see it happening anywhere near that time frame. The market is so far for HD media is way below what DVD was at this stage of the game. At this point many and I mean many people see no reason to upgrade. Most still feel that DVD is good enough. I still find it amusing that people say that DVD looks and sounds like crap. Until bluray starts selling players at $100 and movies for $5 like at Walmart the format is going no where soon. People want cheap plain and simple.

Well what iam saying bluray will get cheap very fast just as HD TVs have done. Then who's going to want a DvD.