No knockout punches at CES?

[Deane Johnson]

I was hoping something would happen at CES that would bring the beginning of the end to the format war. I'm sure that I was hoping for something that couldn't be.

I was hoping for a $499 Blu-Ray player, but no such luck. The company who could possibly have done that would be LG, but instead, they came out with a DOA $1200 combi-player. It should have been no higher than $999, better yet $899.

True, there is some movement toward lower priced players with the second generation Samsung, but a $200 price drop won't bring major momentum changes.

The new Sony 2G players haven't been priced yet, but Sony will never be the low price leader, so I won't expect much.

Universal going nuetral could have been a killer move, but we already knew that wasn't going to happen just yet.

So, it's back to being happy with incremental advancement.

By the way, the reaction of the HD-DVD fanboys to some of the announcements is downright funny. For instance, someone in the HD-DVD camp said Meridian and Onkyo would be developing HD-DVD players. Neither of these companies have said anything at this point, but that's been changed on the forums to read "Meridian and Onkyo announced HD-DVD players." Didn't happen that way.

The announced 51Gig HD-DVD disc has some fanboys believing movies have already been pressed on them and they will be compatible with every player made. No such things have been announced, only that they've developed a 51G disc. Who knows what it will take to play it.

Stay tuned. The doors haven't opened yet.

[Spankey]

Deane, I agree with just about everything you've said. Still, with all of HD-DVD's bluster, it all amounts to a whole lot of nothing.

-Only 175,000 players sold (360 add-on included) is nothing to brag about

-5(1) gb discs are at least a year away and probably only going to be used for storage

-300 titles, the vast majority of which will also be available on Blu-ray.

-Combo player seriously hamstrings HD-DVD by not enabling interactive features.

-RCA decides to sit the whole thing out.

Let's look at Blu-ray...

-Sharp player announced, waiting for price.

-Many more titles will be Blu-ray exclusive from Sony, Disney, and Fox

-PS3 is selling in much greater numbers than the 360 add-on.

-Player prices are falling, reflecting the market and not manufacture subsidies.

Basically Blu-ray has just about everything in place. Bring on Universal and it's game over HD-DVD.

[Blubaru]

Originally Posted by sltmag

Deane, I agree with just about everything you've said. Still, with all of HD-DVD's bluster, it all amounts to a whole lot of nothing.

-Only 175,000 players sold (360 add-on included) is nothing to brag about

-5(1) gb discs are at least a year away and probably only going to be used for storage

-300 titles, the vast majority of which will also be available on Blu-ray.

-Combo player seriously hamstrings HD-DVD by not enabling interactive features.

-RCA decides to sit the whole thing out.

Let's look at Blu-ray...

-Sharp player announced, waiting for price.

-Many more titles will be Blu-ray exclusive from Sony, Disney, and Fox

-PS3 is selling in much greater numbers than the 360 add-on.

-Player prices are falling, reflecting the market and not manufacture subsidies.

Basically Blu-ray has just about everything in place. Bring on Universal and it's game over HD-DVD.

What happened to the moves announcements from Disney? What happened to Pirates and others?

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by Deane Johnson

No such things have been announced, only that they've developed a 51G disc.

Nothing has been developed, this is still a plan on paper.

[Deane Johnson]

I should think Universal will be on board before 2007 ends. The replacement of the key executive at Universal should bring that about, but it will take a few months for everything to fall in place.

I'm reminded of Richard Sharpe at Circuit City getting the boot for the DIVX fiasco. Now, a Universal exec getting the boot (or soon to) for exclusive support of HD-DVD. Interesting world. Yes, I know, there is more to it than that, such as few box office hits in 2006.

[Deane Johnson]

What happened to the moves announcements from Disney? What happened to Pirates and others?

Sony and Disney could have made up a great deal of ground with the right movie announcements at CES, something that's much easier to bring to fruition than hardware advancements. I wonder at times where Sony's head is.

[Spankey]

HD-DVD fanatics are going wobbly in the corner!

[Blubaru]

Someone should spam all this good news over to the AVS Forum

[Josh]

Originally Posted by Blubaru

Someone should spam all this good news over to the AVS Forum

There are more than a few threads discussing this info. Its still too early to feel the wave, but as people start getting to work on the West Coast, it will go nuts.

[Deciazulado]

Originally Posted by sltmag

Deane, I agree with just about everything you've said. Still, with all of HD-DVD's bluster, it all amounts to a whole lot of nothing.

-300 titles, the vast majority of which will also be available on Blu-ray.

mmm yes that's a big whole of nothing, because they're claiming they did 300 titles in 2006 and they're going to do another 300 titles in 2007; well if it's like 2006, they only released 147 titles in the US, so it's easy to impress with numbers when you don't specify. Saying by next Christmas they'll have 600 titles sounds mighty impressive (4x as impressive) when you have released only 147 titles on one year, instead of saying hey we managed to release 147
titles here last year, we might do another 147 this year.

There's 147 releases in the US, on their list of released in Japan there's like 70 more (but most of the titles are in Japanese so difficult to tell what they are. Scenic titles? Railroad titles? etc. That US/Japan list implies that to make up 300, Studio Canal and others have released 80 new different titles not available in the US in 2006. Has anyone got a list of these 80 exclusive to Europe HD DVD titles released in 2006? No. I don't think so.

So 147 becomes "300" for a press release, becomes "600" for the end of the year. Probably by then they'll also have tetra-layer HD DVD 60s too.

Or is it HD DVD 68 as their layer's now "17"

[goodstuff]

I hate to curse but...OH F**K YEAH.

[JTK]

Even the most delusional of HD-DVD zealots is going to run out of fantasy to make up based off of this CES.

Simply put: HD-DVD just got its ass handed to it and has about a year of life left to it.

Even if you give generosity on the hardware front because of the LG dual player? Look at the list of movies and content slated already. Keep in mind: New titles can and will be added to confirmed lists as the year rolls on.

Case closed. BD has won except for the ink on the final papers.

History will show CES 2007 as the official beginning of the end of HD-DVD.

No, there isn't one killer knockout punch for BD. Instead, I see series of hooks, jabs, and maybe a few uppercuts that will lead to a KO in about a year's time, give or take.

All we need to see is for Universal to even blink once and that's it.


My definition of KO punches would be/would have been:

Universal would have declared support for both formats and/or just BD effective immediately.

Something like the Star Wars Trilogy or LOTR Trilogy showing up on BD this year.

Heavy hitting companies like Denon/Marantz and Onkyo/Integra coming out with BD players this year...

^^ Stuff like that.

[Rio]

At least HD DVD camp is gaining CE manufacturers' support, mainly due to the Microsoft's engineering power (and may be $$$). The news also said that MS has some plan to release HD DVD related product in this year (Xbox360 HD DVD built-in?).

I see format war won't be gone in the near future, and almost all HD DVD player will be "Microsoft Embedded".

[Blubaru]

Originally Posted by Rio

At least HD DVD camp is gaining CE manufacturers' support, mainly due to the Microsoft's engineering power (and may be $$$). The news also said that MS has some plan to release HD DVD related product in this year (Xbox360 HD DVD built-in?).

I see format war won't be gone in the near future, and almost all HD DVD player will be "Microsoft Embedded".

M$$ already said they have no interest in integrating the next betamax into their machine. HD-DVD has lost support and I doubt other CE companies will even go threw with making HD-DVD units.

[JTK]

Originally Posted by Rio

At least HD DVD camp is gaining CE manufacturers' support, mainly due to the Microsoft's engineering power (and may be $$$).

Who? When? What?

The news also said that MS has some plan to release HD DVD related product in this year (Xbox360 HD DVD built-in?).

So what? That's all they've got pretty much.

Anything else?

I see format war won't be gone in the near future, and almost all HD DVD player will be "Microsoft Embedded".

Are you talking about the same CES 2007?

What support are you referring to?

I think this thing is over with after this year, especially thanks to the exclusive BD content that's coming out from the major studios.

[dialog_gvf]

Getting Onkyo and Meridian is definitely a positive for HD DVD. Not price wise, of course. I suspect Microsoft sold them on the software. And it is the software that is tough for some CE.

Neither announced anything. Toshiba announced they will bring out players. Which I suspect means the MS road show generated this result. There is still a development cycle worth of time before these are released. These companies won't rush.

They lost RCA. The LG is more a positive for BD because it is too expensive and under performing. And it is probably not 50GB compatible.

The A20 and the 50GB disc both represent Osborning moves by Toshiba. You NEVER market the future when you have stuff to sell now. Both of these sell not one current player. And the 50GB could shut down sales entirely until the issue of 50GB compatibility is resolved.

It would be the same if the BDA announced 100GB discs. If it isn't clear every player available and announced is compatible, all it does is throw out major questions.

Funny, leading up to CES, the lead HD DVD tactic was to question PiP and BD-Live support on BD players! Now they have the basic question of disc compatibility, and I bet somehow THAT won't be an issue. Tres funny.

Gary

[Rio]

Originally Posted by JTK

Who? When? What?

According to the article of HD DVD PRG press conference from AV Watch reported that

- Onkyo is planning to release to US market in this year, Shinco (China) release "HD-A100" player, Alco (China) also will release "SHD7000" in 2007.
- Lite-On, Zhenjian Jiangkui Group(ED Digital) will release players around 4Q 2007, based on the platform of Broadcom BCM7400 + Windows CE 6.0 + MS HDi (so called "reference design").
- Alpine is developing car HD DVD system (will be demonstrated at Alpine's booth)

Originally Posted by JTK

I think this thing is over with after this year, especially thanks to the exclusive BD content that's coming out from the major studios.

I strongly hope so.

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by Rio

According to the article of HD DVD PRG press conference from AV Watch reported that

- Onkyo is planning to release to US market in this year, Shinco (China) release "HD-A100" player, Alco (China) also will release "SHD7000" in 2007.
- Lite-On, Zhenjian Jiangkui Group(ED Digital) will release players around 4Q 2007, based on the platform of Broadcom BCM7400 + Windows CE 6.0 + MS HDi (so called "reference design").
- Alpine is developing car HD DVD system (will be demonstrated at Alpine's booth)

I strongly hope so.

Well from that we see that other than Onkyo which is the opposite end of the HD DVD spectrum; they have sent Amir to China to pick up a bunch of no-name manufacturers. Now they expect everyone to accept that we will never see a big brand HD DVD only player from anyone other than Toshiba.

None of these players are designed as of yet, and are all in development stage, whereas BD has 2 prototypes from Sony, 1 from Sharp, 1 confirmed player from Samsung and still more to come.

[Blubaru]

Originally Posted by Rio

According to the article of HD DVD PRG press conference from AV Watch reported that

- Onkyo is planning to release to US market in this year, Shinco (China) release "HD-A100" player, Alco (China) also will release "SHD7000" in 2007.
- Lite-On, Zhenjian Jiangkui Group(ED Digital) will release players around 4Q 2007, based on the platform of Broadcom BCM7400 + Windows CE 6.0 + MS HDi (so called "reference design").
- Alpine is developing car HD DVD system (will be demonstrated at Alpine's booth)




I strongly hope so.

I'm willing to bet the vast majority of those players never see the light of day. By the time some of those players are actually scheduled to be released the war will already be over.

[Deane Johnson]

No announcements have been released by Onkyo or Meridian. Clearly, the HD-DVD propoganda machine is stretching for anything they can that might look a little bit positive.