Blu-ray: Ten Years of Growth Left?

[J_UNTITLED]

From news.sel.sony.com (Sony Electronics Blog)

- "I’ve been amazed at recent news reports from various sources (some expected, some surprising) either dismissing, suggesting slow sales or even predicting the near-term demise of the Blu-ray Disc format.

Now, I can understand why Microsoft and Toshiba would not be immediate adopters of the format (although I predict market demand will eventually persuade them otherwise) and try to move the discussion onto networked content and DVRs, but what throws me is a recent comment by a European marketing manager of Samsung, the world second-largest seller of BD players (after Sony), who said to the press that the format only "has five years left."

In my opinion, he couldn’t be further from the truth.

First of all, there are millions of BD-based PlayStation 3 videogame consoles in consumers’ homes around the world and this number is growing fast as the device is introduced to new global markets and to new consumers every day. I believe the value of this product is only going to increase for many years to come — perhaps a decade — as developers realize the true power of PS3 in the new games they create, and as the device’s real world features like Blu-ray compatibility blend with new virtual and, yes, networked world features like PSN and Home.

Second, Hollywood has only scratched the surface as far as Blu-ray movie and television titles are concerned. As we witnessed with DVD, you can expect thousands and thousands of high-definition titles to becoming to a Best Buy, Wal-mart and Blockbuster near you — not to mention via the mail through Netflix.

Third, consumers by the millions are making the digital transition and purchasing fabulous flat-panel HDTV sets, including Sony’s high-performing BRAVIA LCD line. They’re investing hundreds and, in many cases, thousands of dollars for these sets, which feature full HD, 1080p resolution. And once they have HDTVs like these, you better believe they’ll invest a few hundred dollars more for a dedicated Blu-ray player or PS3 console to get the most out of their precious new home entertainment acquisitions.

And fourth, while the world of networked entertainment is now emerging and Sony will be one of the leaders in its emergence, the reality of getting full high-definition video content quickly and efficiently downloaded to millions of American homes around the country where broadband is still evolving (not to mention many countries around the world) is still a ways off.

With all of this said, I believe the Blu-ray format will not only coexist with the networked era, but will actually enhance it for many years to come. In fact, you’ll see it evolve this way in new products from Sony and, I suspect, others, including some of the early naysayers.

Oh, and for those expressing doubts about BD player sales, while we’d always like more, at Sony Electronics here in the U.S. we are doing quite well in this regard. And I encourage you to check out the latest models featuring BD Live, which are just the start of the format’s embrace of networked connectivity and benefits for consumers."

[owa]

Glad he went on to say who surprised him since that was my first question after reading the first comment. Anyway, hope he's right. Thanks for the link/article.

[Blu Titan]

Nice article, thanks for the psot.

[Clark Kent]

Blu-ray still has many, many years of market growth left. I'm not sure it will be the last physical media format but the studios are weary of introducing any new formats after the "war" that ended with Warner's decision.

[Tok]

Originally Posted by Clark Kent

Blu-ray still has many, many years of market growth left. I'm not sure it will be the last physical media format but the studios are weary of introducing any new formats after the "war" that ended with Warner's decision.

Don't doubt that the studios want to maximize their Blu-ray profits long before they worry about the next big thing. DVD other than new releases has pretty much peaked with high profile catalog releases. I am sure their are thousands of obscure titles that have not been released, BUT the key here is obscure. Those titles won't generate sales in even the low 10k's.

Blu-ray is earning a name for itself and it still has many high profile titles and classics yet to be released (ie. profit potential for the studios). At this point the studios are waiting for critical mass before releasing those titles. The studios like bragging about millions of units sold, but it does become a little bit of a chicken and egg scenario. Customers want it, but the studios want a larger customer base before releasing it, yet if they released it, they cause more people to buy into the format.

I still remember in the late eighties how the Beatles catalog being issued on CD pushed a lot of Boomers to buy CD players.

[tron3]

Originally Posted by CraigW

... The studios like bragging about millions of units sold, but it does become a little bit of a chicken and egg scenario. Customers want it, but the studios want a larger customer base before releasing it, yet if they released it, they cause more people to buy into the format.

I still remember in the late eighties how the Beatles catalog being issued on CD pushed a lot of Boomers to buy CD players.

+1, excellent point. Supposedly the exclusive HD DVD release of Transformers prompted the sales of players. Yet, they still could not beat sales of blu-ray catalog titles.

I wonder how many people are prompted to buy blu-ray with Transformers out and Iron Man tomorrow. Let's not forget The Dark Knight. It's going to be a very blu Christmas.

[mdm1699]

People need to grab a hold of themselves and chill out. Blu-Ray player, like all other electronics, is not immune to this credit crunch. All retail is down. Blu-ray will survive and flourish over time.

[tron3]

Originally Posted by mdm1699

People need to grab a hold of themselves and chill out. Blu-Ray player, like all other electronics, is not immune to this credit crunch. All retail is down. Blu-ray will survive and flourish over time.

True, yet untrue. Blu-ray is the "killer app" for which people have been waiting. HD video and audio you play at your leisure. I predict consumers cutting back on other Christmas goods to help pay for blu-ray and a few movies.

[Sonny]

Blu-ray will be here for 10+ years easy...............BET, anyone? anyone?

[Lucy Diamond]

I'm so very in love with this format, I will be buying Blu in bargain bins at flea markets 25 years from now.

This will most likely be the last major Home movie collection I build and when players go mainstream and they are 80dollars each, I plan on stashing a few to have during the extinction years.

If the future is a non physical format, I'm going to make the most out of this one.

[tron3]

Originally Posted by Lucy Diamond

.,..
This will most likely be the last major Home movie collection I build and when players go mainstream and they are 80dollars each, I plan on stashing a few to have during the extinction years...

New "old stock" will be available on ebay for years. But the problem of "tin whiskers" exists. Solder contains tin which has the weird property of growing whisker-like growths. No one knows why or how this happens. Sometimes these growths short out electronics. Most of the time they burn off with little to no damage to the circuit. But once in a while... Oxygen is also an enemy.

I have stated before that blu-ray is my "last hurrah". It is difficult to envision something which employs both "near lossless" video and non-compressed lossless audio. Even so, how much better will it look on 1080p screen? Compression made DVD, HDTV and even blu-ray possible. A non-compression HD video system surely could not become a consumer item any time soon.