Format Zealotry

[Damon Payne]

I've made some posts describing the logical reasons I went Blu-Ray including the comparatively great stuidio support. I continue to see a lot of format zealotry here while at the same time laughing at the same "Ra-ra we rule" antics from the hd-dvd fanboys.

There's still a long way to go:
1) TrueHD could have a huge negative impact on one or both formats when it launches.
2) BD has 3 months of market dominance. Does this represent an overall trend? Could be hard to say, HD-DVD was dominant for all of 2006 after all and did anyone here feel that made the war over?
3) There are still compelling (for some) features such as PiP that are not truly supported (without the double-encode hack) at all on BD, let alone with any meaningful tool support that will make studios want to use it.
4) What will the sales #s look like when Universal gets around to releasing some titles?
5) Warner (holder of MANY great franchises) must get around to catching up as promised lest they remain a "mostly hd-dvd studio" and therefore cut into the studio support advantage of BD, ergo, forcing some customers to choose between Batman and Spider Man.
6) Released on June 5th, Cars is the last blockbuster we have a release date for. Obviously to keep up the 2:1 (or higher) sales advantage we need to see release dates for BIG titles after June 5th.

Obviously the data available to us indicates strong BD sales of players and software through at least June but nothing to indicate the war is over or will be over this year.

Discuss.

[jorg]

Originally Posted by Damon Payne

I've made some posts describing the logical reasons I went Blu-Ray including the comparatively great stuidio support. I continue to see a lot of format zealotry here while at the same time laughing at the same "Ra-ra we rule" antics from the hd-dvd fanboys.

There's still a long way to go:
1) TrueHD could have a huge negative impact on one or both formats when it launches.
2) BD has 3 months of market dominance. Does this represent an overall trend? Could be hard to say, HD-DVD was dominant for all of 2006 after all and did anyone here feel that made the war over?
3) There are still compelling (for some) features such as PiP that are not truly supported (without the double-encode hack) at all on BD, let alone with any meaningful tool support that will make studios want to use it.
4) What will the sales #s look like when Universal gets around to releasing some titles?
5) Warner (holder of MANY great franchises) must get around to catching up as promised lest they remain a "mostly hd-dvd studio" and therefore cut into the studio support advantage of BD, ergo, forcing some customers to choose between Batman and Spider Man.
6) Released on June 5th, Cars is the last blockbuster we have a release date for. Obviously to keep up the 2:1 (or higher) sales advantage we need to see release dates for BIG titles after June 5th.

Obviously the data available to us indicates strong BD sales of players and software through at least June but nothing to indicate the war is over or will be over this year.

Discuss.

do not forget casino royal that movie is a block buster too

hd dvd had a 2 month head start and the realy crappy launch titles for blu-ray dident help at all(as in pq)
and i belive universal has released alot of titles i mean alot for 1 studio. i think harry potter has been released for hd dvd too

and bd java interface is better then hd dvds due to the flexible nature of java but as of know no movie realy uses it so hd dvd as the edge there and don`t forget theres only 1 company manufacturing hd dvds players so its alot esseier to put in a feature opossed to blu-ray were theres alot of companys


i do not knwo if your post was a statement that u wanted to be commented on but thats what i have to say lol

[whippersnapper]

Originally Posted by Damon Payne

I've made some posts describing the logical reasons I went Blu-Ray including the comparatively great stuidio support. I continue to see a lot of format zealotry here while at the same time laughing at the same "Ra-ra we rule" antics from the hd-dvd fanboys.

There's still a long way to go:
1) TrueHD could have a huge negative impact on one or both formats when it launches.
2) BD has 3 months of market dominance. Does this represent an overall trend? Could be hard to say, HD-DVD was dominant for all of 2006 after all and did anyone here feel that made the war over?
3) There are still compelling (for some) features such as PiP that are not truly supported (without the double-encode hack) at all on BD, let alone with any meaningful tool support that will make studios want to use it.
4) What will the sales #s look like when Universal gets around to releasing some titles?
5) Warner (holder of MANY great franchises) must get around to catching up as promised lest they remain a "mostly hd-dvd studio" and therefore cut into the studio support advantage of BD, ergo, forcing some customers to choose between Batman and Spider Man.
6) Released on June 5th, Cars is the last blockbuster we have a release date for. Obviously to keep up the 2:1 (or higher) sales advantage we need to see release dates for BIG titles after June 5th.

Obviously the data available to us indicates strong BD sales of players and software through at least June but nothing to indicate the war is over or will be over this year.

Discuss.

New releases won't be the only thing driving new sales of Blu-ray discs. As additional folks get a Blu-ray player for the first time, a good number of them will be buying BD movies that had been released before they had their BD player. So two things will be driving sales, new BD releases and new owners of Blu-ray players.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Damon Payne

1) TrueHD could have a huge negative impact on one or both formats when it launches.

Agreed. However I expect Warner to lose far more BD sales than HD DVD. HD DVD is so starved for releases that HD DVD owners boycotting THD will only hasten the demise of the format. At least they will have a BD disc.

Originally Posted by Damon Payne

2) BD has 3 months of market dominance. Does this represent an overall trend? Could be hard to say, HD-DVD was dominant for all of 2006 after all and did anyone here feel that made the war over?

The war is far from over. BD's market share is stuck at 2:1, and has been there for two months. But, those were two lean release months for BD (and almost a desert for HD DVD). We'll see what happens now we're moving into Q2 with lots of major titles.

Originally Posted by Damon Payne

3) There are still compelling (for some) features such as PiP that are not truly supported (without the double-encode hack) at all on BD, let alone with any meaningful tool support that will make studios want to use it.

Capacity v. PiP. Do people really want to play capability games? It seems that HD DVD has managed to turn an interesting feature in a format vital one. I wonder why that happened?

Originally Posted by Damon Payne

4) What will the sales #s look like when Universal gets around to releasing some titles?

There a many good Universal titles. But, very few great ones, and no blockbusters. Desperation will result in those titles selling, but BD will easily put up as many or more similiar titles. So, it's a push. And the blockbuster new releases will all be coming out on BDs side: Spiderman 3, Pirates 3 and Fantasic 4 - Silver Surfer.

Originally Posted by Damon Payne

5) Warner (holder of MANY great franchises) must get around to catching up as promised lest they remain a "mostly hd-dvd studio" and therefore cut into the studio support advantage of BD, ergo, forcing some customers to choose between Batman and Spider Man.

There is no sign they are actually in the process of doing this. The key Warner HD DVD titles released so far are all MIA on BD. If 300 doesn't get day and date on both formats, we'll know Warner is still be playing favorites.

Originally Posted by Damon Payne

6) Released on June 5th, Cars is the last blockbuster we have a release date for. Obviously to keep up the 2:1 (or higher) sales advantage we need to see release dates for BIG titles after June 5th.

Naturally, BD can suddenly stall releases if it hopes to maintain momentum.

Originally Posted by Damon Payne

Obviously the data available to us indicates strong BD sales of players and software through at least June but nothing to indicate the war is over or will be over this year.

In absolute terms the numbers are still too small for HD DVD not to have an opportunity to come back. And perhaps a good opportunity. If cheap Chinese players actually succeed, and the PS/3 doesn't pick up stream, things could even up quickly.

But, Japan is already a BD win. And despite the spin Europe + UK is a dead zone at this point, likely meaning the PS/3 will massively dominate the situation there.

We already are starting to see Studio Canale preparing BD releases.

Gary

[BTBuck1]

Originally Posted by Damon Payne

There's still a long way to go:
1) TrueHD could have a huge negative impact on one or both formats when it launches.

I don't think TruHD will be any factor in deciding the format war. LPCM and DTSHD/MA have proven to be more popular overall.

2) BD has 3 months of market dominance. Does this represent an overall trend? Could be hard to say, HD-DVD was dominant for all of 2006 after all and did anyone here feel that made the war over?

This alone proves to me it's over for HDDVD. BD dominated once it basically became available. Samsungs player released prematurely and once the real release of Blu-Ray happened (november 06) it was pretty much over from then on for HDDVD.

3) There are still compelling (for some) features such as PiP that are not truly supported (without the double-encode hack) at all on BD, let alone with any meaningful tool support that will make studios want to use it.

I don't seriously think this is a feature that will sway someone to one side or the other. Do you really think this topic is mentioned at all when a salesperson at say BB or CC is talking about the differences? I know I've never heard it, or used it and I work at BB.

4) What will the sales #s look like when Universal gets around to releasing some titles?

IMO the format war will be over before Universal even makes a decision to go BD. Which will be further Mud on their faces, that it was won with or without them. I think they are better to join sooner than later.

5) Warner (holder of MANY great franchises) must get around to catching up as promised lest they remain a "mostly hd-dvd studio" and therefore cut into the studio support advantage of BD, ergo, forcing some customers to choose between Batman and Spider Man.

Batman vs. spiderman? not even a contest....everyone prefers spiderman. I don't think "WB's " handful of titles with pip are a big enough distraction to sway anyone away....especially when it's already promised they are comming, this year!

6) Released on June 5th, Cars is the last blockbuster we have a release date for. Obviously to keep up the 2:1 (or higher) sales advantage we need to see release dates for BIG titles after June 5th.

IMHO June is the month that is the "Nail in the coffin" for HDDVD. Blu-ray just has way too many hits that month vs. HDDVD putting out a bunch of crap. I have a feeling some big announcements will come around then too.

Obviously the data available to us indicates strong BD sales of players and software through at least June but nothing to indicate the war is over or will be over this year.

Discuss.

Asn an owner of both formats, and someone who enjoys them both I can't say with a straight face that I think HDDVD even has a chance.

[Scorxpion]

i aggree with the last post Totally true

[BTBuck1]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

In absolute terms the numbers are still too small for HD DVD not to have an opportunity to come back. And perhaps a good opportunity. If cheap Chinese players actually succeed, and the PS/3 doesn't pick up stream, things could even up quickly.

Those Chinese players aren't going to make one bit of a difference. By the time they release consumers will be able to buy brand name BD players for $399 and the catalog of titles for blu-ray will be many many more than HDDVD, so then what?

But, Japan is already a BD win. And despite the spin Europe + UK is a dead zone at this point, likely meaning the PS/3 will massively dominate the situation there.

We already are starting to see Studio Canale preparing BD releases.

Gary

yup, exactly!

[Damon Payne]

I am of course a BD supporter but to play devil's advocate on some of these talking points:

1) Number of available titles. Given how many more BD exclusive studios there are the # of available titles is still BARELY more than HD-DVD. 193 vs. 176 that can ship today according to eProductwars. I've been hearing for a long time how the "number of available titles will be overwhelming", when exactly is that going to happen again?

2) PiP features: its keeping things like Batman Begins off BD, so it does matter. What about region free?

3) Overseas domination: given the # of studios who have different overseas distribution rights than North American, what bearing does overseas victory have on the North American market?

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Damon Payne

I am of course a BD supporter but to play devil's advocate on some of these talking points:

Playing the devils avocate is a good thing. It means you're not fooling yourself, and are always looking at things logically and from both sides.

Originally Posted by Damon Payne

1) Number of available titles. Given how many more BD exclusive studios there are the # of available titles is still BARELY more than HD-DVD. 193 vs. 176 that can ship today according to eProductwars. I've been hearing for a long time how the "number of available titles will be overwhelming", when exactly is that going to happen again?

I know everyone nowdays wants everything to be done yesterday, but exactly how long do people give to such a thing happening?

The prediction of overwhelming title advantage came out of the realization at the beginning of the year that Universal was in shut-down mode for some period. That's only two months ago, and BD was behind at that point.

Did people expect it to go from behind to overwhelming in two months? BD rates haven't been all that huge during the normal post-Xmas slowdown. NOW is when things start picking up. Casino Royale is the opening salvo. Then comes the PS/3 launch in Europe. And then a steady ramp up in titles through the end of year.

If Universal comes through with 100 titles (a heck of a lot) then things won't be as overwhelming as expected. Then again, Sony could come through with their 100 and negate the entire Universal push.

Originally Posted by Damon Payne

2) PiP features: its keeping things like Batman Begins off BD, so it does matter. What about region free?

PiP is an excuse, as far as I can tell. Given the choice the vast majority of people would rather just have the title than wait. Yet, Warner wants to be neutral by denying us while claiming that they don't want to deny us something. Convenient.

As for region free. HD DVD is only region free until it isn't. It's a temporary advantage. If any at all. If a lack of region coding results in title release delays, then it really is a faux advantage.

Sony says none of their catalog titles will be region coded. I'm not sure new releases will differ that much in regions, except for where they would be a problem.

Originally Posted by Damon Payne

3) Overseas domination: given the # of studios who have different overseas distribution rights than North American, what bearing does overseas victory have on the North American market?

More players and more discs. The players use common components, and common disc production equipment. Even if the titles don't directly affect other regions, the economies of scale eventually do.

And the worldwide is more and more how the studios look at success. The world outside the US and Canada (domestic) is frequently a bigger take for the studios both theatrically AND disc wise.

Gary

[Ascended_Saiyan]

Man! Excellent post, Dialog_gvf! Or, should I say Gary?

This is spot on, IMO.

[Damon Payne]

The Neutrality of Warner has alwasy been in question in my opinion. They were HD-DVD exclusive for a while before either format launched were they not?

Quality matters some in terms of the title advantage. With the exception of King Kong and Children of Men (I really can't think of anything else) Universal is not an issue at this point, even though people look to them to end the format war by providing essentially 100% content availability. Its more the fact that their huge catalog reaching back 50 years contains many fond memories than a large number of POTC sized hits.

[MFS3Kiryu]

Originally Posted by Damon Payne

The Neutrality of Warner has alwasy been in question in my opinion. They were HD-DVD exclusive for a while before either format launched were they not?

Quality matters some in terms of the title advantage. With the exception of King Kong and Children of Men (I really can't think of anything else) Universal is not an issue at this point, even though people look to them to end the format war by providing essentially 100% content availability. Its more the fact that their huge catalog reaching back 50 years contains many fond memories than a large number of POTC sized hits.

As a film fan, Universal has many key titles that really sting to not have on BD. All of David Lynch's movies are must owns, and Mulhulland Drive would look out of this world on Blu-Ray, some key Spielburg movies, namely Jurassic Park, as that would be insane with a uncompressed lossless audio track for the T-Rex chase. Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas is another key picture.

The Thing, The Frighteners, a lot of great titles.

But you're right, as far as new releases go, only Children of Men hurts.

[Nismobeach]

Damon,

Spiderman 2 doesn't have a release date, but that doesn't mean that it won't come out on BD when Spiderman 3 hits theaters this Summer. I seriously doubt that after witnessing Universal drop the ball with new releases that the BDA will do the same by not releasing any blockbuster movies after June 5th.

With regards to HD-DVD, back in 06 the format battle was theirs to lose and they pretty much did just that. Now the ball is in Blu-ray's court and with a few exceptions the BDA has done a pretty good job of making BD a shoe in to be the next optical format of choice given its superior technical specs and studio support.

However, the long term success of Blu-ray is dependent on how affordable HDTVs become in the coming months and how good of a job the BDA does in marketing BD hardware and software products to consumers.

There is serious money to be made here and to suggest that the BDA isn't going to work to maintain its lead is absurd, IMO.

[Deciazulado]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

PiP is an excuse, as far as I can tell. Given the choice the vast majority of people would rather just have the title than wait. Yet, Warner wants to be neutral by denying us while claiming that they don't want to deny us something. Convenient.

The more time passes it looks to me as if they're holding out the big titles so they can release them only on THD "forcing" Blu-ray supporters to buy into the THD concept.

So imagine a scenario where Batman Begins was made available only on HD DVD, and then THD later this year...

I really hope not because then, me, someone who prefers the Batman character over Spidey, won't buy. As if the HD DVD transfer being softish wasn't enough deterrent ...