The Irony: Or how MS is going to use BD to give a swift kick to Apple

[Elandyll]

... where it hurts the most.

At the recent Microsoft's Professional Developpers Conference, MS anounced that starting next week they will propose Vista SP2 to a select group of Beta testers. Of special interest was this feature:

http://www.pcworld.com/businesscente...next_week.html

...and the ability to record data onto Blu-ray video format natively in Vista, Nash said.

Between that and the BR support from Adobe Premiere Pro (I am switching from FCP Studio 2 to Adobe CS 4 in my new job, on PC, Encore supporting BR Authoring), well, that's one thing I wasn't expecting to say any time soon, but HD dev is starting to look a lot more friendly on PC than Mac.

Eeeh .. Ouch ?

[WriteSimply]

Apple is going to be six to 12 months late in the BD game. It's going to cost them.


fuad

[Blu Titan]

Originally Posted by WriteSimply

Apple is going to be six to 12 months late in the BD game. It's going to cost them.


fuad

I agree..it would served them right at this point.

[NovaCrystallis09]

Lol you guys keep telling yourselves that. I'm sure you know more than Steve Jobs and all the other execs at Apple who have probably analyzed the situation a million times already and probably know what the real deal is when it comes to Bluray and how it affects their bottom line.

Sorry but I fail to see the irony here. Apple isn't going to suffer at all from their decision and anyone who thinks otherwise is just bitter and employing wishful thinking.

[Bobby Henderson]

Originally Posted by NovaCrystallis09

I'm sure you know more than Steve Jobs and all the other execs at Apple who have probably analyzed the situation a million times already and probably know what the real deal is when it comes to Bluray and how it affects their bottom line.

That would only hold true if Apple had batted a perfect .1000 previously. Apple has been caught off guard before and has had wrong-headed gambles amount to serious strategic mistakes before. The refusal to support Blu-ray as a means of increasing leverage for movies via iTunes is another mistake.

Apple lost the 3D animation and 3D gaming markets to Windows (after losing the CAD/CAM/CAE fields to UNIX, DOS and then Windows) because it didn't see the value in Silicon Graphics' OpenGL API and the value of having an early 1990s OS that supported protected memory, preemptive multitasking and symmetric multiprocessing. Unfortunately, Steve Jobs and OSX wasn't remotely in the picture with Apple back in 1993 when the critical mistakes were made.

Most Mac fans consider Windows to be a rip-off of the MacOS. Few Mac fans know this: back in 1985 Bill Gates wanted the MacOS on every computer. The first version of Microsoft Office was a Mac-only product. MS was very dependent on Apple then. Gates got the executives of 25 of the world's most prominent computing companies on board with the idea of cloning Macs. He had the strategy all spelled out. Then-CEO of Apple, John Scully and original MacOS designer Jean-Louis Gasee laughed Gates out of the room, claiming Apple would be the only computing company left by 1990. Gates wound up doing with Windows what Apple refused to do with the MacOS.

Apple maintains a few applications for use by creative professionals. Final Cut Pro and the Final Cut Studio has been a major success this decade. Higher end applications like Apple Shake professional "halo" of the Apple image. Unfortunately, bleeding edge applications like Shake require constant attention otherwise they end up being torpedoed by competitors. And that's what happened with Shake when the Windows/Linux-based Eyeon Fusion exploded onto the scene. Fusion has been been used on hundreds of feature films, TV shows and commercials through the latter half of this decade.

Companies like Adobe and Quark, who made the Mac into a graphics powerhouse, have long since ported all their applications to Windows and nullified the notion that one must have a Mac to do any graphics work. Apple can't control the decisions of Adobe, but it could have countered with applications of its own. An application like Aperture isn't enough to cut it.

Even with those anecdotes, Apple is still an awesome computing company -just not perfect. The company is run by fallible human beings, not gods or clairvoyant savants. Right now, its stock is currently really under-priced compared to earnings and investors ought to consider buying right now. I have Apple stock in my portfolio, which is one reason why I am being so hard on them about this Blu-ray thing.

It's important for Apple to make a better effort in supporting the desires of its professional user base instead of just fixating on the iTunes/iPhones thing and how it relates to the casual user end of its market.

[Sith]

Apple and Sony better be ready for Microsofts next system....

It will run on blu ray discs, and it'll have a more powerful processor than the
PS3...And it'll be ready first probably 2 years before the ps4 or more...

[Anthony P]

Lol you guys keep telling yourselves that. I'm sure you know more than Steve Jobs and all the other execs at Apple who have probably analyzed the situation a million times already and probably know what the real deal is when it comes to Bluray and how it affects their bottom line.

you are right, in the history of the world there has never been a company tht made a dumb decision

[quoteSorry but I fail to see the irony here.[/quote]

the irony is that Apple joined the BDA early on while MS was in the HD DVD camp and pushed HD DVD heavily and even had execs posting BS to try and hurt BD sales, and after all that MS is ready to add BD before Apple is.

Apple isn't going to suffer at all from their decision and anyone who thinks otherwise is just bitter and employing wishful thinking.

how can you know that are you a fortune-teller? then tell me the 6/49 numbers for today and if I win I will believe you. Until then it is nothing more then your idiotic opinion. In a very short time when Apple adds BD support to the mac we will know how wrong you are. Let’s face it, if it makes sense in a year or two then it would make sense to do it now.

[Anthony P]

It will run on blu ray discs, and it'll have a more powerful processor than the
PS3...And it'll be ready first probably 2 years before the ps4 or more...

most likely. The 360 was MS "second" generation, the PS3 Sony's 3rd. So far it looks like Sony is taking a 5 year cycle from new-to-new. The Xbox came out one year after the PS2 and the 360 a year before the PS3 so a 3 year cycle (then again maybe the 360 was an anomaly and meant to catch up). It is not who has the best system, it is who has the right cycle, the longer the cycle the more money you make, the more people can buy into the format, the shorter the cycle the less advanced your system needs to be when it comes out (it does not need to be preferment later in its life) the less time to build up gaming libraries, the more trouble for game developers (need to retune code for new platform more often..)

In the end it becomes "what is better a .5 leap more often or a +1 less often?". I don't know, but I agree with what you said and we will see.

[MacLover]

Apple doesn't care about Blu-Ray they only care about the Digital Future which many people fail to notice.

And you can still get Blu-Ray drives for Mac and programs that use Blu-Ray.

[Anthony P]

not at all, I don't think Whirlpool is stupid for not adding BD to their dish washers

The issue with Apple in this instance is three folds
1) Even though it has waned a bit (as Bobby has pointed out) Apple made its name in the creative market. You want to do Taxes, Spreadsheets... boring stuff, you get a PC, you want to create movies, manipulate pics.... you get a Mac. what will happen when some of these creative people need to do HD? If the guy that was using a mac for the last 10 years gets a PC because he needs the content on BD because it is HD, and realizes he can get the same tools, will he jump back to Mac when Apple finally wakes up?

2) Apples computers are for people that don't want to complicate their lives, they are very homogeneous and easy to use on the other hand they lack a lot (3rd party sw) and that is why it was important for Apple to add dual boot so that people that want a mac can have macs and deal with windows if they absolutely must have SW that needs windows. So know what happens? if someone needs /wants BD they need to buy the Apple PC then go to some other store buy a BD drive take it back open up the computer and install it, he most likely also uses windows for some application. How long do you think it will be before this person realizes that Apple has become no more then an other PC manufacturer for him? and then realizes taht he could have just bought a Dell (for example) and have the SW and HW all ready for him from the get go.

3) We all know why this is happening. It has nothing to do with how BD works or anything like that, it is the same reason that MS was against BD. MS wants to own the DL movie market as well as the console market and thought that supporting HD DVD would slow down BD growth and maybe even hurt the PS3 (after if BD failed the BD drive would still be needed in the PS3 but it would miss the talking point of BD movies) but a short time later MS realized that all they where doing was hurting themselves with that strategy. Apple not supporting BD is the same thing, they hope that apple TV can grow and are asking “why support a competitor?”. The issue is that in their computer market appleTV and BD are not competitors and let's face it if MS which has a lot more money available and is a stronger (more market share) could not put a dent in BD what chance does Apple have? How many people watch movies on their computers? And if they do would they be happy that a choice was taken away from them? The benefits (to appleTV) are negligible at best, on the other hand the possible loss (computer market share) is big.

[saprano]

Originally Posted by Sith

Apple and Sony better be ready for Microsofts next system....

It will run on blu ray discs, and it'll have a more powerful processor than the
PS3...And it'll be ready first probably 2 years before the ps4 or more...

MS is making a new system really?

its going to have blu-ray? wow you dont say.

it going to more powerful than ps3? well duh it better. and how much more powerful you think the ps4 going to be over the the 720? exactly.

and its coming 2 years before ps4? who would happy about that? so were talking 2009 or fall 2010. it amazes me how people have no problem buying a new system in under 5 years, the 360 has only been out for 3 years and people are already talking about there next system.

anyway back to apples dumb ass......

[lch]

apple is only interested in using itune to distribute protected 'fake' hd movies and shows and low bitrate songs so that their appletv/ipod can overtake everything else in the world.
they have proved that consumers don't care about hardware and spec, just a nice casing is enough eg iphone/ipod/imac...

they are behaving just like hd-dvd, 'the look and sound of good enough'.

[Bobby Henderson]

Originally Posted by Sith

Apple and Sony better be ready for Microsofts next system....

It will run on blu ray discs, and it'll have a more powerful processor than the
PS3...And it'll be ready first probably 2 years before the ps4 or more...

That will certainly be an important development for the gaming console business. But it won't be a criticial factor in the overall Blu-ray market. 2 years from now standalone Blu-ray players costing under $100 will be very common. Dual layer Blu-ray burners will be very affordable and standard pieces of equipment in new computers.

Originally Posted by MacLover

Apple doesn't care about Blu-Ray they only care about the Digital Future which many people fail to notice.

"Digital future?" What is that murky hyperbole supposed to mean?

People use computers for many different specific purposes, task-oriented purposes to complete various kinds of work or to complete projects at home.

Millions of people use computers to create DVDs from their own videos. High definition has begun revolutionizing the video camera industry. Some of these cameras are already available at affordable price points under $1000. High definition video editing for home movies, "industrial" shooting at work and more will be a major force in driving interest and sales in personal computers. People will expect to be able to record HD video to Blu-ray discs. Standalone Blu-ray players will eventually be inexpensive. BD burners will be common in every new computer system. We'll start to see portable BD players and BD players for cars.

The new Canon EOS 5D Mark II may be a revolutionary device that makes HD video recording even more ubiquitous. The 5D offers professional level D-SLR still camera functions and full 1080p video recording capability via a "full frame" sized, 21 megapixel sensor. The 5D is a high end, professional level device. In another year or two, D-SLRs that shoot both high resolution still images and HD video may be very common.

All of that stuff is on the horizon, but Apple seems to be ignoring it. Or the company's executives think they can convince everyone to just use a Mac and/or an AppleTV for the HD video thing. The situation isn't going to play out that way. Just like we're insisting on being able to buy high bit rate high-def movies on disc, millions of computer users will want the option to burn their own HD videos on disc as well.

[NovaCrystallis09]

I think MS will release their next gen system before the ps4 but I think they will account for w/e improvement sony will make their console as well. Even stronger than they were planning to just so there's no debate about which console is "best" in terms of graphics.

[MacLover]

Originally Posted by Bobby Henderson

"Digital future?" What is that murky hyperbole supposed to mean?

They only care about the iPod, iTunes & TV delivery systems and nothing to do with Disc Media.

[WriteSimply]

Originally Posted by MacLover

They only care about the iPod, iTunes & TV delivery systems and nothing to do with Disc Media.

Yeah we got that. But do they get that disc media bypasses the infrastructure restrictions for people who do not have high-speed broadband? Even people in the developed countries, like the US, do not have a high prevalence of broadband use.

lch is right - Apple is betting on "good enough." Full HD lossless delivery may happen but it's not going to happen in six months EVERYWHERE. Apple is leaning on a potential market with an under-developed infrastructure, a market where consumers must pay for content and SERVICE.


fuad

[Bobby Henderson]

Some of this argument gets back to the Dolby versus DTS rivalry that started up in the early 1990s.

At that time Dolby assumed an extremely conservative stance, basically saying that extremely lossy data compressed 5.1 digital audio on 35mm film prints delivered the same experience as that of 70mm mag-striped Dolby SR prints. They geared Dolby Digital as a replacement only for 70mm-equipped "flagship" class movie theaters. 35mm Dolby Digital prints costing $1000-$3000 were good enough to replace 70mm mag-striped Dolby SR prints costing $15000 to $20000.

Apple is going after the same thing. They are promoting a flawed, "good enough" standard on delivering high definition quality movies via the AppleTV phoney baloney device. It simply DOES NOT COMPARE to Blu-ray. Apple-TV is inferior.

I think Apple can still sell AppleTV to people who do not live a close distance to a good video store or have a Netflix account. But Apple needs to give up on this idea that Internet downloads are going to be remotely comparable to anything resident on a high bit rate Blu-ray disc. Forget about it, Steve Jobs. Get a clue already. Wake up and get Blu-ray authoring functions built into Final Cut Pro and iMovie before Adobe and Avid collectively drop kicks you right in your teeth.

[Anthony P]

Yeah we got that. But do they get that disc media bypasses the infrastructure restrictions for people who do not have high-speed broadband? Even people in the developed countries, like the US, do not have a high prevalence of broadband use.

yes but it is much worst then that. In my old job I used to travel a lot and on every flight there would almost always be one ofr two people that would do some work on their laptop and then slip in a DVD and watch a movie, people throw a couple of disks in the car and the kids watch while traveling, they go on vacation, throw in a few disks and go to the hotel or cottage or second home in an other country. How will streaming or DL deal with all that?

DL fanboys and companies (like Apple in this case) talk about Dl and even sometimes talk about it being easier (after all in their imaginary world, I sit down turn on my device pick XYZ and it streams directly to my TV and I never get off my a$$. ) but the reality is not only that there is no infrastructure for it (the BW is not there, most telcos can’t keep up on demand and so add limits-I think mine is something like 90GB/month, a lot for normal use but not even two BDs- I bought 5 BDs yesterday ) but once you get past that you realize it is much more inconvenient, imagine wanting to bring a few movies with you while leaving the rest at home, even if you can do it (Don’t think apple TV or any others allows it now) can you imagine how much time is needed before hand if you want to transfer 200GB of data from your home server to your laptop to bring with you?

[Anthony P]

I think Apple can still sell AppleTV to people who do not live a close distance to a good video store or have a Netflix account. But Apple needs to give up on this idea that Internet downloads are going to be remotely comparable to anything resident on a high bit rate Blu-ray disc. Forget about it, Steve Jobs. Get a clue already. Wake up and get Blu-ray authoring functions built into Final Cut Pro and iMovie before Adobe and Avid collectively drop kicks you right in your teeth.

agree, except for one thing, if the person is in such a remote location that there is neither a store, rental place nor mail near enough (after all Amazon delivers everywhere o the planet), what is the possibility that the location will have access to high speed internet.

For example one of my friends has a cottage, if he wants to make a call he needs to take the boat and go in the middle of the lake to use his cell phone or climb on the hill and go to the top (he is planning an antenna but does not have one yet) on the other hand the general store in the village has a small rental section (OK, limited selection and only one copy of each movie and so far just DVD).

[Elandyll]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

agree, except for one thing, if the person is in such a remote location that there is neither a store, rental place nor mail near enough (after all Amazon delivers everywhere o the planet), what is the possibility that the location will have access to high speed internet.

For example one of my friends has a cottage, if he wants to make a call he needs to take the boat and go in the middle of the lake to use his cell phone or climb on the hill and go to the top (he is planning an antenna but does not have one yet) on the other hand the general store in the village has a small rental section (OK, limited selection and only one copy of each movie and so far just DVD).

Correct. In that case, a Blu Ray player + Netflix by mail is still the best (by far) solution for HD.

Also to specify the intent of this post.
It is -not- anti Apple. Final Cut Pro did me Good for the past 5-6 eyars I've used it (now moving to PC and Adobe Premiere Pro in my new job). But Apple and its Macs have one terrain they tried (and mostly succeeded) in being #1 - Prosumer Video and DVD authoring. I just find it insane to let your major competitor score points in your main domain just because of your "vision".

This is more the kind of stuff MS has been known for imo.