Blu-ray only!

[mustang-gt-2002]

I remamber when I want in to Best Buy and they had no VHS only DVD's. then when they had no more HD-DVD (that was a good day). so when do you think that Blu-ray will take over DVD. when will I get to goto Best Buy and see nothing but Blu-ray's. or do you think it will never happin because DVD's play on Blu-ray players. unlike VHS that didn't play on DVD players.

[P@t_Mtl]

not for at least 3 years, maybe 4 years I would think

[ScarredLungs]

3yrs

[jk1138]

There is no reason to make a total switch, some titles will never be out in HD because they were taped, not filmed. Further DVD is far cheaper to produce, and will remain that was for a long, long time. There will come a day when BD out sells and has more on the shelf, but I will take many, many more years before DVD is not cheaper to produce than BD. VHS was around for 25+ years, DVD will be around for longer if BD does not get surpassed by something better/cheaper and a totally different format i.e. not a disc.

[tron3]

Originally Posted by mustang-gt-2002

... it will never happin because DVD's play on Blu-ray players. unlike VHS that didn't play on DVD players.

This question come up from time to time in the forums. But you presented it in a slightly unique way. The honest answer is "It is any one's guess."

Due to the current economic issues, anyone will see an up hill battle for blu-ray. Delaying the mass adoption by 1 to 3 years. On the other hand, bad economy makes for great retail prices. Sure to stimulate some sales from people who feel safely and gainfully employed.

In In another 3 to 5 years I think we can safely see 30% to 50% penetration. DVD is still a useful medium. In particular for things where there is no high definition original. Though, blu-ray makes even 480p look good because there is less compression and artifacting possible. I think 3" blu-ray disc could easily replace DVD9.

Much of this rests on Sony's ability to sell more PS3's. If it were possible to get X-box 360 into the blu arena, it would ease a lot of resentment and tensions, and exponenitally open the door for blu-ray movie sales. In this unstimulated market where even Microsoft is laying off, they would be wise to make peace with camp blu and get Blu-ray on the 360. Everyone in the (blu) pool!

[fdm]

When blu-ray movies cost about as much as the dvd versions (both new and old movies). It's really up to the studios.

[Mr. Cinema]

never

[kefrank]

The realist in me thinks that Blu-ray and DVD software will probably co-exist on store shelves indefinitely (ie., 5+ years) because of:
-- the backwards compatibility of BD hardware with DVD
-- the relative lack of HDTV penetration in consumer homes
-- the ubiquitous level of DVD player penetration (homes, cars, computers, etc)

While DVD sales are declining, they still bring in billions and billions of dollars in revenue a year. I don't think BD will be able to fully replace that much revenue in just two or three years, but I'd be overjoyed if it does.

All that being said, Blu-ray doesn't need to eliminate DVD entirely in order to be an overwhelming success and I think that's something people on this forum don't always realize. If Blu-ray supplements DVD sales enough to bring the overall home video software revenues back to (or greater than) 2004 levels, it will have achieved great things for the movie and CE industries.

[Lucy Diamond]

There's still a binch of money to be made from DvD.

I'm with you though. This is a great time for home theater.

[blu-mike]

if they are gonna to this I am guessing Sony will release Quantum of solace on blu-ray before the DVD.

[NovaBomb]

Originally Posted by Mr. Cinema

never

I'm with you, I know of some smaller shops that still rent VHS.

[neos_peace]

Originally Posted by tron3

This question come up from time to time in the forums. But you presented it in a slightly unique way.

no we have had another thread pretty much identical to this. You are right.

[Anthony P]

it will happen, but exactly when is hard to say. I would have to agree with most and say in around 3 years

[Bravoxena]

I think that they will co-exist indefinitely. There is a lot of content with SD-only sources that would not greatly benefit from a BD re-release. That being said, when production costs go down and the format becomes as popular as DVD is now, I think that SD content could be released on BD if its larger capacity and better compression can be taken advantage of.

[Anthony P]

I'm with you, I know of some smaller shops that still rent VHS.

that is true (though eventually they will dry up as well), but like you said VHS is still around in some places so I took it as if the OP was talking of places like BB (mentioned in the OP) or HMV or places that sell movies and CE devices and not some thrift store or dollar store somewhere.

[Afrobean]

Some material not existing in an HD capacity is not an effective argument to suggest that BD can never supplant DVD entirely.

BD has so much more storage capacity that rather than issuing large box sets, SD material can be loaded onto BDs by the barrelful. Yes, some things, such as some older TV shows, would be impossible to ever have in HD, but at the same time, they can do a whole season plus tons of extras on a single disc. Some shows that they might be holding off on releasing due to low interest, they could put out a relatively cheap box set of the entire series on a couple BDs in SD.

And that's without even touching BD's other advantages such as greater security, better menu systems, or downloadable content.

DVDs only have as long as hardware penetration of BD remains low. Once BD is able to become more ubiquitous, DVD's poor capacity and poor security will motivate the major studios to not bother with it at all or to keep it to a minimum. In time, it'll be relegated to something only for low budget releases and things of that nature.

The only downside I can figure is that it will take a while before hardware penetration will be able to climb that high. I suppose that will only happen once it gets to a point where if someone goes to the store to buy a cheap DVD player, they'd actually be walking out with a low end BD player. In other words, it has to be forced in a way I guess, but people will only go with the flow on the forcing if the pricing isn't absurd. Knock around 100 more bucks off BD hardware pricing and we might be able to see BD defeating DVD sooner rather than later.

ps VHS's days truly are numbered, even if shops are still renting them. The magnetic tape is a terrible medium for data storage, at least as far as VHS handles it. At least with DVD, the data is stored digitally and won't get damaged by magnets or simply viewing the movie.

[owa]

I think it's up to the studios and what their long-term plan is. If they're planning for blu-ray to completely replace DVDs, I think it'll take at least 3-5 years and they'll have to be pretty aggressive with it (like only releasing some things on blu-ray or delaying DVD releases, etc.). I also think a lot of it will depend on how long it takes HDTVs and HD programming to become the norm. Once you get use to hi-def material, anything in standard definition becomes less acceptable.

[lobosrul]

I've already seen a forecast that DVD players will STILL outsale BD players in 2009. Also, TV shows on BD are still a rarity. I think 3-4 years off for BD to completely replace DVD is extremely unrealistic.

The advantages of DVD over VHS was obvious for anyone with a TV. The advantages of BD over DVD are only there for those with HDTV. And HD only has what about 25% market penetration in the US? Much less in most of the rest of the world.

I'd expect the major studios to start phasing out DVD in favor of BD for new releases, around 2015 for "first world" countries. DVD's sales will still continue for a long long time for catalog releases, minor distributors, and also porn.

As far as loading up material that can never be really HD on BD. We've yet to see it. And I remember this being discussed in another thread. The studios want to charge a pretty hefty price for a 20-25 episode set, and people probably won't be willing to pay that much for 1 or 2 discs even if those discs contain as much material as 8 DVD's.

[FIDDYPOP]

Originally Posted by fdm

When blu-ray movies cost about as much as the dvd versions (both new and old movies). It's really up to the studios.

I couldnt agree more. People like my parents, and many not tech savy people dont care about HD and feel that its not worth paying in some cases more then double the price of a DVD for a movie.

[Terjyn]

Retailers will get fed up carrying dual formats with even shelf space long before 2015, and they will start pressure to phase out DVD. This process took only a few years with DVD, I see no reason why people believe it won't happen in the same time frame with Blu-Ray.

Once the players start to get cheap enough to create, DVD players will stop being made altogether. Who's going to buy a 50$ DVD player if they can buy a 50$ Blu-Ray player that also plays DVDs? Well, other than the insane rabid anti-Blu people.

Once that happens it is only a matter of time till DVD movies get phased, most likely due to the pressure from retailers who don't want to carry an "obsolete" format.

I think within 3-4 years is completely realistic for this to occur.