Forrester: Format war is Blu-ray's to lose

[Iron Man]

In its third annual report on the state of the next-gen format war, Forrester Research reiterated its long-held belief that Blu-ray will ultimately prevail over HD DVD, though more guardedly than in years past.

The market research firm has issued two previous reports on the high-format war, both predicting that Blu-ray would emerge victorious in its fight with HD DVD for next-gen supremacy.

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This year, on the heels of Paramount's announcement that it would support HD DVD exclusively, Forrester now says that although Blu-ray remains in a better position than its rival, the format's backers will need to change strategy or risk losing their edge.

Specifically, Forrester analyst J.P. Gownder says that if Blu-ray fails to offer a viable hardware model at the $250 price point by Christmas 2007 and doesn't employ more aggressive promotional tactics to counter HD DVD's recent momentum, it could open itself to a possible upset defeat at the hands of HD DVD.

Gownder goes on to say that Blu-ray's failure to land a knock-out blow over the past year means that the format war will continue for at least 18 more months.

Established in 1983, independent research firm Forrester analyzes technology change and its impact on business, consumers, and society.

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/sh...s_to_Lose/1005

[powerSURG]

Interesting indeed. Good find.

I hope the BDA is listening and really pushes price cuts for this coming season.

[WickyWoo]

The price point he's wrong on

The PR front he's right on.

[E-Dogg]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

The price point he's wrong on

The PR front he's right on.

I agree. I think that if we can get a player like the announced Denon with 2.0 between $400-500 than we would see a lot more sales of stand alone Blu-Ray players.

[vw mofo]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

The price point he's wrong on

The PR front he's right on.

I'd have to say I disagree with you... Keep in mind there will be $199 or less HD DVD players by Christmas. Whether they're any good or not is an entirely different story and is irrelevant...

BD NEEDS a sub $300 player and the closer to $200 the better.

[lch]

Originally Posted by vw mofo

I'd have to say I disagree with you... Keep in mind there will be $199 or less HD DVD players by Christmas. Whether they're any good or not is an entirely different story and is irrelevant...

BD NEEDS a sub $300 player and the closer to $200 the better.

any proof that 199 player is coming ? all you can state is fud from other 'sources'.

and why even when bd player is more expensive, they still selling more than hd player and on the rise still ?

[vw mofo]

Originally Posted by lch

any proof that 199 player is coming ? all you can state is fud from other 'sources'.

and why even when bd player is more expensive, they still selling more than hd player and on the rise still ?

Venturer HD DVD Player to Ship in Time for 2007 Holiday Sales

MSRP on these things IS $199 according Robert at Value Electronics who plans to sell them.

[Manco]

Originally Posted by vw mofo

I'd have to say I disagree with you... Keep in mind there will be $199 or less HD DVD players by Christmas. Whether they're any good or not is an entirely different story and is irrelevant...

BD NEEDS a sub $300 player and the closer to $200 the better.

It does not matter if the HD-DVD player is free. Low pricing of hardware is completely irrelevant and and the cheaper the players get the more it works "against" you. If economically speaking, you can only afford a $199 player you cannot afford a ton of software titles priced at $25-$32 retail. You also cannot afford a HDTV bigger than say 32" 720P where HDM would make any significant difference any way. We have got to get off this focus of hardware pricing. Consumers that can only afford $199 HD-DVD players will stick with DVD simply out of economics. That is why the BDA is playing it smart and not low-balling the price of BR players. What you should be more worried about is the $400 Toshiba that is a TRUE 1080P player. That is the enemy.

Who the hell walks out of BestBuy with a $3000 plasma and then says "oh crap... I've got to go get a cheapo $199 disk player"?

[bdrex28]

Originally Posted by Manco

It does not matter if the HD-DVD player is free. Low pricing of hardware is completely irrelevant and and the cheaper the players get the more it works "against" you. If economically speaking, you can only afford a $199 player you cannot afford a ton of software titles priced at $25-$32 retail. You also cannot afford a HDTV bigger than say 32" 720P where HDM would make any significant difference any way. We have got to get off this focus of hardware pricing. Consumers that can only afford $199 HD-DVD players will stick with DVD simply out of economics. That is why the BDA is playing it smart and not low-balling the price of BR players. What you should be more worried about is the $400 Toshiba that is a TRUE 1080P player. That is the enemy.

Who the hell walks out of BestBuy with a $3000 plasma and then says "oh crap... I've got to go get a cheapo $199 disk player"?

I completely agree with your post.

[vw mofo]

Originally Posted by Manco

It does not matter if the HD-DVD player is free. Low pricing of hardware is completely irrelevant and and the cheaper the players get the more it works "against" you. If economically speaking, you can only afford a $199 player you cannot afford a ton of software titles priced at $25-$32 retail. You also cannot afford a HDTV bigger than say 32" 720P where HDM would make any significant difference any way. We have got to get off this focus of hardware pricing. Consumers that can only afford $199 HD-DVD players will stick with DVD simply out of economics. That is why the BDA is playing it smart and not low-balling the price of BR players. What you should be more worried about is the $400 Toshiba that is a TRUE 1080P player. That is the enemy.

Who the hell walks out of BestBuy with a $3000 plasma and then says "oh crap... I've got to go get a cheapo $199 disk player"?

I also agree for the most part. However, do not underestimate the power of bargain shoppers! Look what happens on Amazon anytime you can get an A2 for ~$200 with a couple free movies...

There's no reason blu shouldn't cash in on something similar!

[w_tanoto]

Originally Posted by Manco

It does not matter if the HD-DVD player is free. Low pricing of hardware is completely irrelevant and and the cheaper the players get the more it works "against" you. If economically speaking, you can only afford a $199 player you cannot afford a ton of software titles priced at $25-$32 retail. You also cannot afford a HDTV bigger than say 32" 720P where HDM would make any significant difference any way. We have got to get off this focus of hardware pricing. Consumers that can only afford $199 HD-DVD players will stick with DVD simply out of economics. That is why the BDA is playing it smart and not low-balling the price of BR players. What you should be more worried about is the $400 Toshiba that is a TRUE 1080P player. That is the enemy.

Who the hell walks out of BestBuy with a $3000 plasma and then says "oh crap... I've got to go get a cheapo $199 disk player"?

well, but people that don't know about it will choose the cheaper player believing that it will play High definition (1080p). Some good trick from HD DVD side.

[BigB88]

Originally Posted by Manco

It does not matter if the HD-DVD player is free. Low pricing of hardware is completely irrelevant and and the cheaper the players get the more it works "against" you. If economically speaking, you can only afford a $199 player you cannot afford a ton of software titles priced at $25-$32 retail. You also cannot afford a HDTV bigger than say 32" 720P where HDM would make any significant difference any way. We have got to get off this focus of hardware pricing. Consumers that can only afford $199 HD-DVD players will stick with DVD simply out of economics. That is why the BDA is playing it smart and not low-balling the price of BR players. What you should be more worried about is the $400 Toshiba that is a TRUE 1080P player. That is the enemy.

Who the hell walks out of BestBuy with a $3000 plasma and then says "oh crap... I've got to go get a $199 disk player"?

I don't agree, although I don't think Blu should go below a $325 price point, I do think they need to at least be in the ballpark. I do not think Blu should go with a "under $200" player however. The reasoning behind a lower price point for stand-alone players is that Blu can say, we are priced at $325 or $350 and our player is more advanced then that of the $199 HD-DVD counterpart - just being more price competitive. In addition, people will gravitate to lower priced players simply to save $$ so they can buy other things or more HD titles (Opportunity costs). What the BDA should do is recommend to the Blu manufacturers to offer a lower priced stand-alone player and get Sony to lower the PS3 to a competitive price point with the stand-alones, perhaps $50-$75 more, something like $350 for a Blu Ray stand-alone and $399-$425 for a PS3 will bring in a lot more to the Blu column.

[CptGreedle]

I wonder...
I know Toshiba is taking a loss for every HD-DVD player sold, and M$ is taking a loss on every 360 sold, but with the prices of the BD players, i suspect they are not taking a loss for each one sold.
Perhaps it is time for a few of those companies that can afford it, to take a risk and lower the price enough to be close to $200 even if it means taking a loss. Why?
Cause right now, if they players can't compete with the price, there will be more HD-DVD players out there than BD players even if it is in the hands of a moron... it still means they will have more of them.
I also think that this year will NOT mean as much as everyone is making it up to be....
The problem is people are ignorant and poor. What I mean is, those that can afford an HDTV don't even realize they are not watching HD signals or think SD signals are good enough. And more importantly, people who want an HDTV and all that awesomeness that comes with it, can't afford it still!
Yes you can buy a 720p 32" SOny Bravia for $600, BUT people want bigger and better. The real quality TVs have to be cheaper.. right now they are still around $3k. If they can get dropped to UNDER $1k, then people will flock to buy them. That won't happen this year. People want the best product for the lowest price... and I think next year it will happen.
This means 2 things, there are not going to be as many people flocking to get out there and buy HDTVs and BDs and HD-DVDs etc. as people speculate, which means that the sales are not going to be as grand as we hope.
But it also means that if we don't get BD to be the winner of the format war by next year, there will be no winner... ever. There must be one when people are most likely to go out and get one. This year is important cause it sets us up for next year. If we can get the better sales, than it is likely WB and others might support BD exclusively, which means victory. But if it does not happen, then the format war will end in a "draw" and people will find something else to do (i.e. downloads).

We NEED the sales this year to get the support we need for next year. It really comes down to this.. Are we going to have the support and such after this 4Q battle to end the war in time for the 4Q next year?

[buckshot]

the venturer could sell a million players and dit wouldn't matter. their market is the really cheap or uneducated people. and they will buy it. but they won't buy the discs or they will buy them then return them when the picture isn't any better than their durabrand dvd player on their crt tv or their ''enhanced definition'' plasma.

[Coltboy]

[/quote]Who the hell walks out of BestBuy with a $3000 plasma and then says "oh crap... I've got to go get a cheapo $199 disk player"?[/QUOTE]


lol i agree by the time you spend that much.........what the hell is it to spend another $400+ for a HD player

[brian lawson]

Originally Posted by Manco

It does not matter if the HD-DVD player is free. Low pricing of hardware is completely irrelevant and and the cheaper the players get the more it works "against" you. If economically speaking, you can only afford a $199 player you cannot afford a ton of software titles priced at $25-$32 retail. You also cannot afford a HDTV bigger than say 32" 720P where HDM would make any significant difference any way. We have got to get off this focus of hardware pricing. Consumers that can only afford $199 HD-DVD players will stick with DVD simply out of economics. That is why the BDA is playing it smart and not low-balling the price of BR players. What you should be more worried about is the $400 Toshiba that is a TRUE 1080P player. That is the enemy.

Who the hell walks out of BestBuy with a $3000 plasma and then says "oh crap... I've got to go get a cheapo $199 disk player"?

I completely disagree with this. For the same reason that you'll see a fat ass order a double-whopper with extra mayonnaise and a DIET coke. The same reason you see poor people living in a sht hole while driving around in an expensive car. Come on, you think everyone is rational about their purchases?

[bryaaaant]

Originally Posted by Manco

Who the hell walks out of BestBuy with a $3000 plasma and then says "oh crap... I've got to go get a cheapo $199 disk player"?

You don't have to worry about the $3,000 plasma guy at all. The one you have to worry about are all the $800 Vizio guys and if I'm not mistaken, they're one of the best-selling HDTV brands in the U.S. all because of the price point.

But I guess the real question is who the hell walks out of WalMart with a cheapo TV is willing to dish out $30 on a movie when he can get the same movie on dvd for $15.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by vw mofo

I'd have to say I disagree with you... Keep in mind there will be $199 or less HD DVD players by Christmas. Whether they're any good or not is an entirely different story and is irrelevant...

BD NEEDS a sub $300 player and the closer to $200 the better.

Why? HD DVD has been less than $250 for months and has fallen behind BD stand-alone sales. How does driving a bunch of people who are only willing to spend $250 on a player get $20-$40 discs sold?!

Bottom line, anyone so price sensitive that $250 is a sale when $400 is not, will not be a factor in disc sales.

Gary

[vw mofo]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Why? HD DVD has been less than $250 for months and has fallen behind BD stand-alone sales. How does driving a bunch of people who are only willing to spend $250 on a player get $20-$40 discs sold?!

Bottom line, anyone so price sensitive that $250 is a sale when $400 is not, will not be a factor in disc sales.

Gary

Do you have any sales data to back up that BD players are still outselling HD DVD players? I'd be very interested to see if it was still the case.

Maybe to you $150 isn't a big difference, but for me and many other people it's HUGE. Especially when you have a cheap-ass wife at home! lol

[gvortex7]

Originally Posted by vw mofo

I'd have to say I disagree with you... Keep in mind there will be $199 or less HD DVD players by Christmas. Whether they're any good or not is an entirely different story and is irrelevant...

BD NEEDS a sub $300 player and the closer to $200 the better.

Ahh, for once I kind of agree with you.