Where Is Blu-ray Going?

[dmwiley]

I love Blu-ray. However, Toshiba has created a master stroke by selling its HD DVD player (A3 or A2) for under $300 and its available at places like Walmart, which, incidentally also carries Blu-ray players for at least $100 more. I'm becoming concerned that HD DVD may win the format. I'm not entirely convinced that most Americans will spend the extra bucks for a competing format that cost significantly more. If Sony and its partners are not careful, Blu-ray may end up a niche market and eventually go the way of the dodo and Elcassette (or Betamax).

[Josh]

Sony has the best selling LCD TV in the US. Why do you think Americans will spend the extra money for a Sony LCD (over Walmart brands) but not for a Sony Blu-ray player?

[Blu Holer]

What I don't get is that HD in general is a niche market and will be for some time. As such, given that it mostly appeals to Videophile type consumers, I'm suprised so many of them are so willing to settle for less just because it's cheaper. In almost everything I read, the Red fans admit that Blu is the superior technology, and yet they fervently support HD-DVD just beause it's cheaper? Just by their very nature, I would think these folks would want their Transformers DVD to have every possible bell and whistle. It's a real head scratcher to me that even early adopters are so split. There's got to be more to it than just $100 players.

[MatrixS2000]

Originally Posted by Josh

Sony has the best selling LCD TV in the US. Why do you think Americans will spend the extra money for a Sony LCD (over Walmart brands) but not for a Sony Blu-ray player?

Yup...Apple makes the most expensive mp3 player - the ipod. What is the most popular mp3 player - the ipod. Americans are buying that so why would an HDM player be so different?

Price does not trump everything and the old saying always holds - "you get what you pay for."

[Teazle]

New member.
First post.
New thread for maximum exposure.
Title of thread rhetorically suggests there's uncertainty about where Blu-ray is going.
Opening sentence of post tries to suggest the OP is favourably disposed toward Blu-ray; that he's not guilty of the negative bias which becomes obvious by the end of the post.

[bluperch]

And named after a coyote.

[Joe Cain]

Originally Posted by Teazle

...Opening sentence of post tries to suggest the OP is favourably disposed toward Blu-ray; that he's not guilty of the negative bias which becomes obvious by the end of the post.

By the end of the sentence, looks like from here. Or maybe even just the middle.

[Steelmaker]

My concern isn't so much with HD-DVD winning as it is with both formats losing. I'm fearful that the HD movie market is always going to be a niche market. Like it or not, regular dvd's are good enough for most consumers out there and are a hell of a lot cheaper! Yes I understand that prices will come down eventually but just go to Wal Mart and look around! It's bin after bin after bin of dvd's that range in price from 5 bucks to 15 bucks! Plus the players are now dirt cheap.

[SDG]

I guess by his own logic, people who own hd dvd players will buy SD DVD's cause they are cheaper than hd dvd's. The player will up convert to 1080i just like the standard HD DVD player. I guess that by your own logic, hd dvd will put its self out of business.

[ikbradley]

Originally Posted by dmwiley

I'm becoming concerned that HD DVD may win the format. I'm not entirely convinced that most Americans will spend the extra bucks for a competing format that cost significantly more. If Sony and its partners are not careful, Blu-ray may end up a niche market and eventually go the way of the dodo and Elcassette (or Betamax).

I see your point and I am now going to purchase an A-2. The low cost looks so appealing. Honestly, I find this format war so tiresome, because this market is so "niche". It's so niche that the BDA will not use proper competition to lower their prices through innovation. Instead, the BDA will rely on subsidies from an 800-pound guerilla to ensure that neither format wins. Of course, when the BDA starts dumping their players to the point of giving them away that will be the sign of victory, especially after they have lost every week of disc sales for the past year. Of course, the BDA will narrow its manufacture list down to one and have limited studio support...

Oh wait, I think I might have mixed something up...

[RBFC]

Here's how I view the situation:

The studios' profits will determine the outcome. Warner, Universal, etc. don't share in the gains when Toshiba sells a bunch of $99 players (unless there are kickback arrangements). With about 500,000 HD-DVD players out there, at an average cost of $200, that is a total revenue of $100,000,000. Take away the actual costs for making, distributing, and advertising the players. This leaves far less than the original exclusivity "guess-timate" pay-offs to Universal and DreamWorks. It doesn't seem financially possible that Toshiba can indefinitely subsidize studios that choose their format. Studios will also suffer somewhat if the public continues to prefer their movies on a format that they don't offer. (loss of face more than $$$, since SD-DVD is the current big player)

The sales of the software are a much larger % of the money to be made. The cost of 4 movies at $25 is more than the cost of a $99 player. Do you think the studios will be happy if folks don't buy a LOT more titles than that? This seems to render the differences in the cost of a player as almost negligible in the grand scheme, as mentioned in the iPod and Sony comments above.

Where have you spent more money? Your DVD player or your collection of SD-DVDs? That's where the ultimate market controlling force lies.

With a sales lead of 2:1 in software, and backward-compatible 1.1 discs beginning to appear soon, I don't see Blu-Ray losing easily.

Lee

[frenchglen]

Originally Posted by Blu Holer

What I don't get is that HD in general is a niche market and will be for some time. As such, given that it mostly appeals to Videophile type consumers, I'm suprised so many of them are so willing to settle for less just because it's cheaper. In almost everything I read, the Red fans admit that Blu is the superior technology, and yet they fervently support HD-DVD just beause it's cheaper? Just by their very nature, I would think these folks would want their Transformers DVD to have every possible bell and whistle. It's a real head scratcher to me that even early adopters are so split. There's got to be more to it than just $100 players.

I think it might be Sony-hate, among other things. Early adopters mainly consist of people who care more about technology, and just like there are microsoft haters there are Sony haters. Sometimes for more subjective reasons, sometimes for very objective and true reasons.

I think this format war has certainly created Toshiba-haters, including one here (for good reasons I think), I've always considered them a mediocre CE company anyway. I already loathe Microsoft.

Having said this I don't particularly love Sony either, I'm very objective. I simply like the best products. I don't like SACD, I prefer DVD-Audio (for a complicated comglomorate of reasons) and ATRAC3? At least they realiosed the stupidity in that. However, they jointy-created the CD which was a vast improvement in quality at the time (for a digital solution) AND now they have simply the best Hi-def optical format!

[dmwiley]

I see there are idiots in evey forum. Disregarding the personal attacks and insults, the real question is, how much are average Americans willing to pay. Although Sony LCDs are quality sets, Olevia, Samsung, Vizio and other manufacturers are making significant inroads and I know of no hard evidence that most Americans own a Sony LCD set. My bet is that they will go with the product that is less expensive if its performance is close to the more expensive technology. I am seeking objective analysis and response not "Well I own Blu-ray and any person worth his/her slat should follow my lead". Idiots, please do not respond.

[khainne]

average Americans are buying dvds, this is an enthusiast's market.

[Joe Cain]

Okay. If price point were the determining factor, why has HD-DVD been losing the format war since BD hit the market?

I love Blu-ray. However, Toshiba has created a master stroke...

There is not yet evidence to support that conclusion.
What exactly do you love about BD?

[sj001]

Originally Posted by dmwiley

I see there are idiots in evey forum. Disregarding the personal attacks and insults, the real question is, how much are average Americans willing to pay. Although Sony LCDs are quality sets, Olevia, Samsung, Vizio and other manufacturers are making significant inroads and I know of no hard evidence that most Americans own a Sony LCD set. My bet is that they will go with the product that is less expensive if its performance is close to the more expensive technology. I am seeking objective analysis and response not "Well I own Blu-ray and any person worth his/her slat should follow my lead". Idiots, please do not respond.

Good way to start posting in a new forum, bravo!

I can see right between the lines of your post, why disguise that you are an HD-DVD fan?

Has the $99 sales made a difference? Um, nope. All it did was raise expectations that ALL HD-DVD players need to be under $100, otherwise, what's the point?

[mystiksuicide]

Originally Posted by dmwiley

I love Blu-ray. However, Toshiba has created a master stroke by selling its HD DVD player (A3 or A2) for under $300 and its available at places like Walmart, which, incidentally also carries Blu-ray players for at least $100 more. I'm becoming concerned that HD DVD may win the format. I'm not entirely convinced that most Americans will spend the extra bucks for a competing format that cost significantly more. If Sony and its partners are not careful, Blu-ray may end up a niche market and eventually go the way of the dodo and Elcassette (or Betamax).

So you think we have shoot your point of view down by now?? Blu has always been more expensive, blu has always sold more, blu has always been a superior format.
Oh by the way did you see last weeks Nielsen numbers? 71%-29%. Stay tuned it looks like this weeks numners will get even worse for the DUD's this week.

ENOUGH SAID!!!!

[joeorc]

Originally Posted by dmwiley

I see there are idiots in evey forum. Disregarding the personal attacks and insults, the real question is, how much are average Americans willing to pay. Although Sony LCDs are quality sets, Olevia, Samsung, Vizio and other manufacturers are making significant inroads and I know of no hard evidence that most Americans own a Sony LCD set. My bet is that they will go with the product that is less expensive if its performance is close to the more expensive technology. I am seeking objective analysis and response not "Well I own Blu-ray and any person worth his/her slat should follow my lead". Idiots, please do not respond.

its evident you are falling for the FUD and just trying to spread the same here on Blu-Ray.com to show how level headed you are and HOW the Blu-Ray.com is just a bunch of FANBOY'S that will drink the BDA's KOOL AID...is that the just of it.... your right how much are American's willing to pay..its not the player cost its the Disc cost...and why do you think that right now people are not buying HD DVD or Blu-Ray in droves...

simple you can put out all the $98.00 HD DVD players , and $400.00 Blu-Ray player's all you want but if your content for a single movie cost's you on average $30.00+ EVEN WITH A HIGHER RESOLUTION, MORE INTERACTIVE FEATURES...the average consumer off the street say's no way to $30.00+ movies..when a single MOVIE cost's as much as 10 gal. of GAS in the US right now..do you think people will buy those in any large amounts right now.

and better yet do you see the DISC's cost dropping anytime soon for HD DVD..? they have low cost player's ...yea that's great when a single MOVIE cost a 25% the cost of of the player its self....

that would be great if there were more than ONE CE HARDWARE company makeing HD DVD 1080i MOVIE players RIGHT NOW..Toshiba has priced HD DVD 1080i so low that there is no point in picking up the 1080p HD DVD player..so the mind set is "1080i is just as good as 1080p" so when you ask CE companies can they make MONEY OFF OF HD DVD the answer is no..not at this time and prob. NEVER..Toshiba has regulated the HD DVD format to 1080i BECAUSE THAT IS THE player's they have been pushing right from the start.

welcome to the Blu-Ray.com forum

[IMG][/IMG]

enjoy your stay

[E-Dogg]

Originally Posted by dmwiley

I love Blu-ray. However, Toshiba has created a master stroke by selling its HD DVD player (A3 or A2) for under $300 and its available at places like Walmart, which, incidentally also carries Blu-ray players for at least $100 more. I'm becoming concerned that HD DVD may win the format. I'm not entirely convinced that most Americans will spend the extra bucks for a competing format that cost significantly more. If Sony and its partners are not careful, Blu-ray may end up a niche market and eventually go the way of the dodo and Elcassette (or Betamax).

That's your opinion which you are entitled too and I couldn't disagree more than I do.

[kabraal]

Originally Posted by dmwiley

Where Is Blu-ray Going?

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