Steven Spielberg Predicts 'Implosion' of Film Industry

[Akijama]

Steven Spielberg on Wednesday predicted an "implosion" in the film industry is inevitable, whereby a half dozen or so $250 million movies flop at the box office and alter the industry forever. What comes next -- or even before then -- will be price variances at movie theaters, where "you're gonna have to pay $25 for the next Iron Man, you're probably only going to have to pay $7 to see Lincoln." He also said that Lincoln came "this close" to being an HBO movie instead of a theatrical release.

George Lucas agreed that massive changes are afoot, including film exhibition morphing somewhat into a Broadway play model, whereby fewer movies are released, they stay in theaters for a year and ticket prices are much higher. His prediction prompted Spielberg to recall that his 1982 film E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial stayed in theaters for a year and four months.

The two legendary filmmakers, along with CNBC anchor Julia Boorstin and Microsoft president of interactive entertainment business Don Mattrick, were speaking at the University of Southern California as part of the festivities surrounding the official opening of the Interactive Media Building, three stories high and part of the USC School of Cinematic Arts.

Lucas and Spielberg told USC students that they are learning about the industry at an extraordinary time of upheaval, where even proven talents find it difficult to get movies into theaters. Some ideas from young filmmakers "are too fringe-y for the movies," Spielberg said. "That's the big danger, and there's eventually going to be an implosion — or a big meltdown. There's going to be an implosion where three or four or maybe even a half-dozen megabudget movies are going to go crashing into the ground, and that's going to change the paradigm."

Lucas lamented the high cost of marketing movies and the urge to make them for the masses while ignoring niche audiences. He called cable television "much more adventurous" than film nowadays.

"I think eventually the Lincolns will go away and they're going to be on television," Lucas said. "As mine almost was," Spielberg interjected. "This close -- ask HBO -- this close."

"We're talking Lincoln and Red Tails -- we barely got them into theaters. You're talking about Steven Spielberg and George Lucas can't get their movie into a theater," Lucas said. "I got more people into Lincoln than you got into Red Tails," Spielberg joked.

Spielberg added that he had to co-own his own studio in order to get Lincoln into theaters.

"The pathway to get into theaters is really getting smaller and smaller," Lucas said.

Mattrick and Spielberg also praised Netflix, prompting Boorstin to ask Spielberg if he planned to make original content for the Internet streamer. "I have nothing to announce," said the director.

Lucas and Spielberg also spoke of vast differences between filmmaking and video games because the latter hasn't been able to tell stories and make consumers care about the characters. Which isn't to say the two worlds aren't connected. Spielberg, in fact, has teamed with Microsoft to make a "TV" show based on the game Halo and he is making a movie based on the Electronic Arts game Need for Speed.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/new...on-film-567604

[chris_sc77]

Ticket prices are already exorbitant. Shouldnt ever cost more than $7 for any one ticket at any theater for any screen resolution or size.
They wanna keep raising them fewer people will go. Fewer people go then fewer concessions theaters sell and fewer hours theaters can stay open and operate and that will be that in regard to a cinema experience.

[Snicket]

Preach!

[Ironhorse75]

Movies are either really big or really small. The 80 million dollar drama doesn't really exist anymore.

I do find it ironic hearing Lucas talk about pandering to the general audience.

[Chaotic]

LOL Lucas

[tonylopez]

Interesting story. Spielberg may be on to something here. Ticket sales are already a lot but if they continue to rise I may write off all theater experiences in general and just enjoy the bluray. Maybe I should dive more into pay per view and streaming for so so titles but its just cheaper to just buy the blu.

[Tony208]

some budgets are ridiculous, you look at them and say where the hell did all the money go

I appreciated The Purge not because it was excellent(above average at best) but, it was successful on such a tiny budget

go back to slow zombies and take out the airplane scene for World War Z and you're looking at $100m instead of $200m even with reshoots

[Visco.]

This doesn't mean movies are reaching their end of the life, it just means these megabudget films are no longer financially successful as they shouldn't be. A movie should not cost 200 million to make in any shape or form.

Sinister only cost 3 million to make but it brought in 90 million. Movies like Battleship are impossible to make a profit on unless you market the fxck out of it.

[42041]

It's like the studios feel they're owed an audience just because they blow a giant wad of cash on something. Spending $250 million on Jack the Giant Slayer wasn't a sound business decision? Who could have predicted that?

[MifuneFan]

They should try this:

Opening week: Charge regular prices
3 Weeks later charge: 25% less
5 weeks later: 50% less

The percentages and time of rate change could be altered of course, but the premise of charging less as the movie is in theaters longer could work out pretty well for both studios and moviegoers. There are plenty of people who refuse to go to the theater often because of high costs, myself included. If movies were $8 or so later on I'd definitely go a lot more often.

There will always be people who pay to see it early, just like there are people who buy video games and Blu-rays day one. BD's and games go down in price eventually, so movie tickets should too.

It'd obviously be risky and they could lose more money, but it's worth trying. Worst case, they just go back to charging regular prices. Anyone know if this was tried before on a large basis?

[Revolution 9]

Originally Posted by Chaotic

LOL Lucas

You appear to be totally ignorant on the huge impact George Lucas has had on the film making industry. The man is more than just Star Wars, y'know.

[Tony208]

Originally Posted by 42041

It's like the studios feel they're owed an audience just because they blow a giant wad of cash on something. Spending $250 million on Jack the Giant Slayer wasn't a sound business decision? Who could have predicted that?

that was so obvious you have to wonder what these people are thinking

dealing with an established property, you have to consider how large your audience really is

most times it is people who like property + people that can be swayed in to seeing it

people who didn't like the books aren't going to go see the movie all of a sudden

poor marketing research imo

[Dennis Nedry]

Very interesting notion from Spielberg. I'll have to give it some more thought.

One thing I did notice though is the absolutely deranged comments on that Hollywood Reporter piece. I could scarcely believe what I was reading. I'm so glad the people on Blu-ray.com aren't like that.

[mjbethancourt]

While the problems they identify are very real, I think the conclusions and predictions they have come to are completely ridiculous and most likely will prove to be the complete opposite of the truth.

If the current model crashes, then the sources of undue pressure will face the adjustment: meaning more cheaper films, lower ticket prices, viewing risk in terms of ideas instead of dollars, and more opportunity to make and exhibit films outside of the existing monopolies of trade unions, big studios, and megaplexes. If the system crashes, there is a vacuum to fill, and many who will be very eager for the opportunity to do so.

This just sounds like two arrogant men who see inevitable change as inevitable armageddon, because they can't imagine the industry going on without them and their way of doing things. The only thing in any real danger is the mega-budget blockbuster, they are becoming a major risk-management problem, and there may be fewer of them as a result. The failure of the mindless mega-budget blockbuster should not pose a threat to the 'Lincoln's, the opposite should be true. Studios lose money on Speed Racer and John Carter, but they make it up on a dozen comedies that pull in a modest $60-100 million, while costing almost nothing. If blockbusters are the source of the risk-management problem, the solution is to adjust the ratio in favor of more lower-budget films to offset potential losses, and fewer risks on $250 million shows.

These two need to just face the fact that, as enormous as their contributions are, and as incredibly successful as they have been, their time is past and that is why they have trouble getting their films into cinemas. The business needs new blood.

[Revolution 9]

Originally Posted by Ironhorse75

I do find it ironic hearing Lucas talk about pandering to the general audience.

Why would that be ironic?

If George Lucas was pandering to the general audience, he wouldn't be withholding the unaltered original trilogy on DVD or Blu-Ray, would he?

If he was pandering to the fanbase, he wouldn't have added "Nooooo!" to RotJ Blu-Ray as a proverbial middle finger to the angry nerds who had been harassing him all these years. Fanning the flames of controversy is just about the complete opposite of "pandering".

If he was pandering to the expectations of the fanbase, the Star Wars prequels wouldn't have turned out the way they did. Nobody ever complains that the Prequels were just "more of the same" or that they were "too derivative" of the originals. For right or wrong, George Lucas made the prequels the way he wanted to, not the way people wanted him to.

The only time Lucas pandered to the audience was when he took Jar-Jar out of the films after The Phantom Menace.

[AmrlKJaneway]

Smart guys these two.

Can't say much more. I totally agree with them.

I've said this before and I'll say it again;

1. Less studio films of better quality. Both technically (always 70mm film/4K/8K digital) and artistically (better stories, longer run times).

2. Better cinemas (everything IMAX, rail systems so all cinemas have film and digital, booked seating, intermission, better food).

3. Return of the serial for action fans (why have two or thee Marvel films at 2 hours each per year, when we could have 6-8 45 minute films with cliffhangers!).

and,

4. All independent films released direct to video.

I was also thinking that coupled with this there could be more completely independent theatres as well, with those "boxes" for new releases. They could have the independent films at the same time as the home release for people who want to see them in cinemas, and the studio films something like a month or two after their IMAX run. These cinemas would compete heavily with each other in terms of video/audio quality, as well as customer services (seating, food, etc.), and would never be half****d attempts.

I'm a dreamer. But I'm so right (in my opinion)!

[ElliesDad]

Originally Posted by 42041

It's like the studios feel they're owed an audience just because they blow a giant wad of cash on something. Spending $250 million on Jack the Giant Slayer wasn't a sound business decision? Who could have predicted that?

To Kill a Mockingbird (1963) cost $2,000,000 to produce ($15,000,000 in today's dollars), grossed the equivalent of $90,000,000, and went down in film history as an ever-lasting tribute to the skill, talent, intelligence, and integrity of everyone associated with it. 'Nuff said.

Can't believe that the theatre chains would respond to falling demand by raising prices. On what planet has that marketing ploy ever be successful?

Not sure I'd be taking the urgings of Lucas to the bank when, in the same-breath as his prognostications, he's complaining about the reception to his Red Tails, a worn-out story that RT describes as suffering "...from one-dimensional characters, corny dialogue, and heaps of clichés".

Or, sadly it seems, Steven Spielberg, if the article's assertion that he is now turning to video games for his inspiration is accurate.

[Snicket]

Originally Posted by MifuneFan

They should try this:

Opening week: Charge regular prices
3 Weeks later charge: 25% less
5 weeks later: 50% less

The percentages and time of rate change could be altered of course, but the premise of charging less as the movie is in theaters longer could work out pretty well for both studios and moviegoers. There are plenty of people who refuse to go to the theater often because of high costs, myself included. If movies were $8 or so later on I'd definitely go a lot more often.

There will always be people who pay to see it early, just like there are people who buy video games and Blu-rays day one. BD's and games go down in price eventually, so movie tickets should too.

It'd obviously be risky and they could lose more money, but it's worth trying. Worst case, they just go back to charging regular prices. Anyone know if this was tried before on a large basis?

I don't think theatre chains would ever go for this.

[Tony208]

video games are unappreciated like comic books were years back

then again every single video game adaption has been terrible
it'll only take one to strike it big both critically and commercially to change everything though, I'm looking at you Assassin's Creed

[Spicoli]

Originally Posted by Tony208

some budgets are ridiculous, you look at them and say where the hell did all the money go

I appreciated The Purge not because it was excellent(above average at best) but, it was successful on such a tiny budget

go back to slow zombies and take out the airplane scene for World War Z and you're looking at $100m instead of $200m even with reshoots

The money goes to over rated actors like RDJ and movies that "Look" great but have no substance

Originally Posted by Snicket

I don't think theatre chains would ever go for this.

It is not the chains decision


This is the greatest news!


I am tired of not going to the movies because the masses have been buying this crap for years. I also find it funny that many here will cry and they are the ones blowing this stupid amount for a sub par product.