TV Predictions article - "Are we headed for a stalemate?" (17.06.07)

[HDTV1080P]

Not sure if this has already been posted yet. It brings up some good points.

http://www.tvpredictions.com/smith061707.htm

[baccusboy]

All studios seem to be realizing that catalog titles, however inviting, do not sell very well on HD DVD or Blu-ray, and that new titles do much better. This contradicts the studios’ previous experience with VHS and DVD, but it makes sense. Twenty years of video formats have left most early adopters with large collections of LD’s, VHS’s, and most of all, DVD’s, so high-priced and unmotivated catalog titles do not have as much appeal as was expected. Even titles like The Matrix have not sold spectacularly well. Hence, studios are pulling catalog titles until a later period when adoption has increased.

So is that part of the answer to Fox pulling back? Catalogue titles not selling well?

Sounds interesting. Plausible.

Does Fox have many new releases?

[The Don]

Originally Posted by baccusboy

So is that part of the answer to Fox pulling back? Catalogue titles not selling well?

Sounds interesting. Plausible.

Does Fox have many new releases?

I can't think of any off the top of the head aside from Fantastic 4 RSS, I think...and the last one I recalled was X-Men III, but I thought it did pretty well on BD...

they probably don't have many new movies?...

[GasCat]

Keep in mind that this an op-ed piece.

"Robert Smith, a Palo Alto area technology official, is a HD Observer for TVPredictions.com. If you would like to be a HD Observer, send an e-mail to: swann@tvpredictions.com"

[WriteSimply]

2007 Sunshine. Die Hard 4.0. The Simpsons. 28 Weeks Later.
2006 Borat.


fuad

[Blu-Ray Buckeye]

THis article, like many that look into the crystal ball, place far too much confidence in the eventual success of downloaded content. People into home theater tend to be collector type who like to "own" something. While you might own rights to your downloaded copy of a movie it hardly feels like part of a collection. People love to look ahead and ignore the obstacles. If anything, music is a far easier medium for totally switching away from CDs and yet downloads, while growing rapidly, are still a tiny % of overall sales and even then mostly for singles and not full albums... most people want the actual CD of albums they truly love. The infrastructure for full 1080p HD movie delivery is far more involved than music. And the article notes the growth of HD channels on TV but we all know that those mostly look like crap by comparison to BD discs.. the question is whether the mass market will be able to tell the difference or care.

I also wonder if this writer kind of wished he hadn't published this on the same day as the Blockbuster announcement.

[jermwhl]

Originally Posted by Blu-Ray Buckeye

THis article, like many that look into the crystal ball, place far too much confidence in the eventual success of downloaded content. People into home theater tend to be collector type who like to "own" something. While you might own rights to your downloaded copy of a movie it hardly feels like part of a collection.

I agree, I like to "OWN" my movies. I don't want downloaded copies!

[Need0fMany]

Articles like that will become more and more common as this is now the "best case scenario" that the HD-DVD rabbid fans have been reduced to hope for. Victory for them is no longer an option, not even for the most optimistic of their dreamers and spin-masters.

A little longer and they will have to shift into Betamax thinking... "we should have won but ... "

Long live Blu-ray!

[Blu-Ray Buckeye]

Originally Posted by jermwhl

I agree, I like to "OWN" my movies. I don't want downloaded copies!

Exactly, not to mention the everpresent fear of a hard drive crash. Even if they promise to allow you to re-download everything you own, would you want to go throuhg the trouble? I worry enough about my music collection on my PC and I have the Cds to back that up... it's just a miserable pain and I'd lose the few songs that I only own via downlaod. I don't need to replicate that stress on movies.