Will any physical audio/video format be outdated in the next 10 years? - Blu-ray Forum

rawn o'neal · 06-21-2007, 04:55 PM

As far as digital downloads are concerned any physical disc format for the consumer.

will bluray, dvd, cd, hdvd...etc or any type of actual tangible disc format be outdated within the next 10 years anyway?

games are going all digital download on the next gen systems, music, movies, etc,etc will eventually follow.

are "we" the consumer being duped into believing that a 'format' is actually going to stick around once digital downloads become standard?

Blu Tiger · 06-21-2007, 04:58 PM

I know that a lot of people are like me. They like collecting. If they do stop releasing media on a physical format, then I will stop buying and collecting movies and games. I like having something to show for my money.

rmatt · 06-21-2007, 05:17 PM

I'll buy into this, if cd's come into extinction. Even if this does happen, record companies may still try to appeal to retailers by releasing some sort of media to access dowloads like memory sticks.

As long as people like myself and Blu Tiger still exist, there will always be a market for a physical format.

BTW, I heard a news report that vinyl is making a comeback in the UK, anyone care to elaborate?

jadafa · 06-21-2007, 05:21 PM

Personally, I hate downloading any large GB of mass of whatever, because it hogs my bandwidth that I can be using for other stuff.

Most consumers come in 3 types. And there are enough type 2's and type 3's to warrant physical medias to be made still. Not everyone is going to do digital download. Not everyone can afford high-bandwidth cable, dsl, t1 or t3 connections. Several people, even today, are still on 56K baud modems. Yes, those old techs where they have to dial into a modem service to log into the internet. They will never be able to do the digital download or VOD method ever.

So, no, I don't think we will ever see a stop of production of physical properties of whatever format in the future. I still like to show off my collection to people. I can't do that if they're all stuck in a hard drive or I have to download whatever off the internet.

RichiPuppy · 06-21-2007, 05:26 PM

You also have to take into account that many people today don't have high speed internet, either because of not being able to afford it or due to where they live, I know people with satilite internet, and downloading even an SD movie is a joke. Sure you could pay more for faster internet, but at what price, and what money do you have left to download movies, not to mention the only reason downloading movies and music now is so popular is cause most people are getting free illegal copies, and if downloads became the norm, there will be many more ways for them to catch you for illegally downloading, and a lot less ways to do it with. It may just be me, but the only people I know personally that think this is the future, think that cause they are downloading illegally, and don't think they should have to pay.

buckshot · 06-21-2007, 05:36 PM

any normal person who has had a computer crash will not be downloading movies. buying extra hard drives are a pain, they have sold 100 million ipods, but they've released how many different versions? I bought a gen 4 20g and picked up the 30g video a year later. some people I know have bought 4. so how many people have ipods? most people I know don't download entire albums. may a song here a song there, but most people I know buy a cd then upload it. I can see that being an option. in 10 years a ps4 or ps5 with a 20 terabyte hdd that you can upload you blurays to. but I don't know any normal person who would trust the download technology enough to buy all their movies that way. I had a pc that I was using for recording with 30 new songs by my band on it. it corrupted all the files, which were unable to be saved. that's why I will never fully trust anything stored on a hard drive.

Shin-Ra · 06-21-2007, 05:37 PM

What's the typical monthly bandwidth allowance for a US ISP? In the UK a majority of people have the cheapest package which usually provides less than 20GB of bandwidth per month.

atomik kinder · 06-21-2007, 05:37 PM

I'm not thinking how much bandwidth it is going to take or how large a physical drive you are going to need to store all of this on, I am thinking... What if company "A" decides they don't want their movie, game, music, whatever to be available to anyone anymore and delete it from your system without your approval. Don't say it couldn't happen. From what I have heard DVRs do it when a program expires. What then? You paid for it, but you don't actually own it like a DVD, CD, BLu-Ray disc.

binarymelon · 06-21-2007, 05:44 PM

The biggest problem is that data transfer rates have to keep playing catchup because data keeps getting larger. Although, 10 years from now it may have reduced the gap. Also storage needs to improve as well. Space, speed and redundancy would need to increase quite a bit as well as become more affordable for me to be comfortable only having digital copies of all my media.

movies3 · 06-21-2007, 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blu Tiger

I know that a lot of people are like me. They like collecting. If they do stop releasing media on a physical format, then I will stop buying and collecting movies and games. I like having something to show for my money.

i agree with you, while downloading your music/movies etc seems like a good idea i dont think so. Music might be a lil more easier but honestly where are you going to store all your HD movies which are 50 gbs a piece or even if you have 100 albums etc.

Yea you can store them on other hard drives etc but i hate to break it to ya there not going to last forever. I just had one go out of me and i lost over 700 pics that i wont be able to get back. Not to mention how will you get back your music or movies, you going to re-download them again... And what about a virus or a computer crash..your basically SOL

I like to have a hard copy, so that way i will always have it. And collecting movies is fun if your into that sorta thing which i am

i dunno i just dont like the idea, music might work but as for movies i dunno.

babyBlu · 06-21-2007, 05:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blu Tiger

I know that a lot of people are like me. They like collecting. If they do stop releasing media on a physical format, then I will stop buying and collecting movies and games. I like having something to show for my money.

I feel exactly the same way. I will be one of the last people to buy into the "digital download era" if it does become mainstream.

I need my BD's and PS3 games to keep me warm at night. My wife doesn't mind sharing a bed with them.

phranctoast · 06-21-2007, 06:04 PM

When this does happen TV will be interactive and look more like the internet. Watching a baseball game and immediately pulling stats or things like the pitch count whenever you want will be great. Info on actor, on the fly. I could see it in the future, but it will be built into the equipment as well, and all tvs will really be pc's.

As of now, people are happy with physical media. mp3's and the ipod changed music, but people still buy cd's. Movies are not like music. listening to music can be done while driving/walking...whatever. watching a movie takes more attention and will never be as popular as portable music. And like I said before. Even with mp3's popularity, people are still buying cd's.

Branden · 06-21-2007, 06:15 PM

i highly doubt physical media will ever go extinct, especially within 10 years. and M$ is stupid to think it might. there's too many problems with downloaded media:
- people like to have a tangable product, complete with booklets and covers.
- it won't be cheaper after you take into account the extra HDD space you'll have to buy (especially with HD movies) and the extra bandwidth your ISP will expect you to pay for.
- i know alot of people who bought music online and thanks to DRM can only listen to it on the computer that downloaded it, can't upload to their mp3 player. and also what happens when they need a new PC? what's the point of having a 60" HDTV if your movie is restricted to only play on your PC?
- HDD are volatile, a crash might cost you your entire library. who can afford to rebuy their entire library? the worst that can happen to physical media is you have to buy a single scratched disc.

physical media will continue to evolve, i imagine movies to come on flash-drive type format eventually, but never go extinct.

WickyWoo · 06-21-2007, 06:16 PM

In the US they throttle your up/down, but packages are unlimited transfer

GooMan · 06-21-2007, 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by atomik kinder

I'm not thinking how much bandwidth it is going to take or how large a physical drive you are going to need to store all of this on, I am thinking... What if company "A" decides they don't want their movie, game, music, whatever to be available to anyone anymore and delete it from your system without your approval. Don't say it couldn't happen. From what I have heard DVRs do it when a program expires. What then? You paid for it, but you don't actually own it like a DVD, CD, BLu-Ray disc.

This made me also think about resale. How can I sell/buy used copies of a movie if its a download, do I have to sell my whole harddrive?

Dadds · 06-21-2007, 07:09 PM

I will never buy movies or full games and store them on a HDD. I need to have it in my hand. I dont mind buying $5-$10 arcade games but that is a as far as I will go.

atomik kinder · 06-21-2007, 07:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GooMan

This made me also think about resale. How can I sell/buy used copies of a movie if its a download, do I have to sell my whole harddrive?

Plus, how many of you people loan out movies or games to friends and family members? I think this would make it virtually impossible. I doubt they would let your burn it to a disc, but people would probably figure a way around that anyway.

clyon · 06-21-2007, 07:38 PM

I want something in my hand. I have had too many computer problems. I will Not loan out my computer, so someone can watch a movie.
Discs are reliable & don't take up that much room & will last 50,000 years, a HHD 2-5 years.

darkpoet25 · 06-21-2007, 07:50 PM

The only way I can think of to do such a thing is if you had an external Teraflop hard drive. Which most people don't already have. The only time I download anything like music is to get a certain song, and then burn it to an actual disc. I'm like Blu Tiger, I want the actual product, be it music, games, or movies. Besides, you also have the overall quality to consider. The quailty will lack, depending on the encoding.

06-21-2007, 04:55 PM	#1
rawn o'neal Junior Member Member since:Apr 2007	Will any physical audio/video format be outdated in the next 10 years? As far as digital downloads are concerned any physical disc format for the consumer. will bluray, dvd, cd, hdvd...etc or any type of actual tangible disc format be outdated within the next 10 years anyway? games are going all digital download on the next gen systems, music, movies, etc,etc will eventually follow. are "we" the consumer being duped into believing that a 'format' is actually going to stick around once digital downloads become standard?

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06-21-2007, 04:58 PM	#2
Blu Tiger Special Member Member since:Mar 2007 Location:Denver, CO Blu-ray collection:725 Trading Score:27	I know that a lot of people are like me. They like collecting. If they do stop releasing media on a physical format, then I will stop buying and collecting movies and games. I like having something to show for my money.

06-21-2007, 05:17 PM	#3
rmatt Active Member Member since:May 2007 Location:St.Louis, MO	I'll buy into this, if cd's come into extinction. Even if this does happen, record companies may still try to appeal to retailers by releasing some sort of media to access dowloads like memory sticks. As long as people like myself and Blu Tiger still exist, there will always be a market for a physical format. BTW, I heard a news report that vinyl is making a comeback in the UK, anyone care to elaborate?

06-21-2007, 05:21 PM	#4
jadafa Member Member since:May 2007	Personally, I hate downloading any large GB of mass of whatever, because it hogs my bandwidth that I can be using for other stuff. Most consumers come in 3 types. And there are enough type 2's and type 3's to warrant physical medias to be made still. Not everyone is going to do digital download. Not everyone can afford high-bandwidth cable, dsl, t1 or t3 connections. Several people, even today, are still on 56K baud modems. Yes, those old techs where they have to dial into a modem service to log into the internet. They will never be able to do the digital download or VOD method ever. So, no, I don't think we will ever see a stop of production of physical properties of whatever format in the future. I still like to show off my collection to people. I can't do that if they're all stuck in a hard drive or I have to download whatever off the internet.

06-21-2007, 05:26 PM	#5
RichiPuppy Active Member Member since:Mar 2007	You also have to take into account that many people today don't have high speed internet, either because of not being able to afford it or due to where they live, I know people with satilite internet, and downloading even an SD movie is a joke. Sure you could pay more for faster internet, but at what price, and what money do you have left to download movies, not to mention the only reason downloading movies and music now is so popular is cause most people are getting free illegal copies, and if downloads became the norm, there will be many more ways for them to catch you for illegally downloading, and a lot less ways to do it with. It may just be me, but the only people I know personally that think this is the future, think that cause they are downloading illegally, and don't think they should have to pay.

06-21-2007, 05:36 PM	#6
buckshot Blu-ray Guru Member since:Feb 2007 Location:san die ego Blu-ray reviews:2 Trading Score:9	any normal person who has had a computer crash will not be downloading movies. buying extra hard drives are a pain, they have sold 100 million ipods, but they've released how many different versions? I bought a gen 4 20g and picked up the 30g video a year later. some people I know have bought 4. so how many people have ipods? most people I know don't download entire albums. may a song here a song there, but most people I know buy a cd then upload it. I can see that being an option. in 10 years a ps4 or ps5 with a 20 terabyte hdd that you can upload you blurays to. but I don't know any normal person who would trust the download technology enough to buy all their movies that way. I had a pc that I was using for recording with 30 new songs by my band on it. it corrupted all the files, which were unable to be saved. that's why I will never fully trust anything stored on a hard drive.

06-21-2007, 05:37 PM	#7
Shin-Ra Super Moderator Top contributor Member since:Feb 2007 Blu-ray collection:5 Trading Score:1	What's the typical monthly bandwidth allowance for a US ISP? In the UK a majority of people have the cheapest package which usually provides less than 20GB of bandwidth per month.

06-21-2007, 05:37 PM	#8
atomik kinder Blu-ray Samurai Member since:Jun 2007 Location:Omaha NE 4K collection:- Blu-ray collection:- DVD collection:-	I'm not thinking how much bandwidth it is going to take or how large a physical drive you are going to need to store all of this on, I am thinking... What if company "A" decides they don't want their movie, game, music, whatever to be available to anyone anymore and delete it from your system without your approval. Don't say it couldn't happen. From what I have heard DVRs do it when a program expires. What then? You paid for it, but you don't actually own it like a DVD, CD, BLu-Ray disc.

06-21-2007, 05:44 PM	#9
binarymelon Blu-ray Guru Member since:Apr 2007 Location:PEI, Canada Trading Score:4	The biggest problem is that data transfer rates have to keep playing catchup because data keeps getting larger. Although, 10 years from now it may have reduced the gap. Also storage needs to improve as well. Space, speed and redundancy would need to increase quite a bit as well as become more affordable for me to be comfortable only having digital copies of all my media.

06-21-2007, 06:04 PM	#12
phranctoast Power Member Member since:Aug 2006 Location:Long Island, NY;psn:phranctoast Blu-ray collection:78	When this does happen TV will be interactive and look more like the internet. Watching a baseball game and immediately pulling stats or things like the pitch count whenever you want will be great. Info on actor, on the fly. I could see it in the future, but it will be built into the equipment as well, and all tvs will really be pc's. As of now, people are happy with physical media. mp3's and the ipod changed music, but people still buy cd's. Movies are not like music. listening to music can be done while driving/walking...whatever. watching a movie takes more attention and will never be as popular as portable music. And like I said before. Even with mp3's popularity, people are still buying cd's.

06-21-2007, 06:15 PM	#13
Branden Senior Member Member since:Jun 2007 Location:Calgary, Alberta 4K collection:28 Blu-ray collection:558	i highly doubt physical media will ever go extinct, especially within 10 years. and M$ is stupid to think it might. there's too many problems with downloaded media: - people like to have a tangable product, complete with booklets and covers. - it won't be cheaper after you take into account the extra HDD space you'll have to buy (especially with HD movies) and the extra bandwidth your ISP will expect you to pay for. - i know alot of people who bought music online and thanks to DRM can only listen to it on the computer that downloaded it, can't upload to their mp3 player. and also what happens when they need a new PC? what's the point of having a 60" HDTV if your movie is restricted to only play on your PC? - HDD are volatile, a crash might cost you your entire library. who can afford to rebuy their entire library? the worst that can happen to physical media is you have to buy a single scratched disc. physical media will continue to evolve, i imagine movies to come on flash-drive type format eventually, but never go extinct.

06-21-2007, 06:16 PM	#14
WickyWoo Blu-ray Champion Member since:May 2007 Trading Score:2	In the US they throttle your up/down, but packages are unlimited transfer

06-21-2007, 07:09 PM	#16
Dadds Special Member Member since:Jun 2007 Location:South NJ Blu-ray reviews:3	I will never buy movies or full games and store them on a HDD. I need to have it in my hand. I dont mind buying $5-$10 arcade games but that is a as far as I will go.

06-21-2007, 07:38 PM	#18
clyon Special Member Member since:Feb 2007 Location:Just left of the Alpha Quadrant 4K collection:57 Blu-ray collection:824 Blu-ray reviews:8	I want something in my hand. I have had too many computer problems. I will Not loan out my computer, so someone can watch a movie. Discs are reliable & don't take up that much room & will last 50,000 years, a HHD 2-5 years.

06-21-2007, 07:50 PM	#19
darkpoet25 Blu-ray Samurai Member since:Feb 2007 Location:Indianapolis, IN Home Theater Gallery:45 4K collection:50 Blu-ray collection:297 Blu-ray reviews: 4	The only way I can think of to do such a thing is if you had an external Teraflop hard drive. Which most people don't already have. The only time I download anything like music is to get a certain song, and then burn it to an actual disc. I'm like Blu Tiger, I want the actual product, be it music, games, or movies. Besides, you also have the overall quality to consider. The quailty will lack, depending on the encoding.

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