Tipping Point for BD - When? - Blu-ray Forum

What'sHD · 07-09-2007, 09:53 AM

When do you think the Tipping Point will be in this war?

Imagine a situation in which the technical mags begin writing "bye bye hd-dvd" articles and the techie consumer is picking up BD without hesitation as the war winner, even though Toshiba and that other "company" are still reducing player prices/giving away truck-loads of free movies and jumping up & down, hand-waving frantically (mostly on AVS) respectively.

That's what I mean by TP...

nhaase · 07-09-2007, 12:27 PM

I don't know if there will be a "point" per se, but if BD at least maintains a 2:1 YTD sales advantage (which they've had this whole year), I suspect more people will begin seeing the reality of the situation. Maintaining this advantage into September will mean that BD will have had a 2:1 advantage for 3/4 of the year, with no serious challenge by HD DVD.

Also, a greater disparity in sales of dual-format releases will show that BD has more market penetration (comparing format-specific sales of 300 vs. The Departed can show somewhat what's going on).

Algernon · 07-09-2007, 01:02 PM

While I'm highly in favor of Blu (obviously), I'm not so sure it'll happen that fast ... there are identical threads on the HD-DVD forums, "when will Blu-Ray die" and the likes ...

However, it would seem that if those 4 studios which produce BD exclusively now will stay exclusive, that'll be the end of HD-DVD, in the long run ...

Also, Blockbuster Video's BD decision is interesting

radagast · 07-09-2007, 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by What'sHD

When do you think the Tipping Point will be in this war?

Imagine a situation in which the technical mags begin writing "bye bye hd-dvd" articles and the techie consumer is picking up BD without hesitation as the war winner, even though Toshiba and that other "company" are still reducing player prices/giving away truck-loads of free movies and jumping up & down, hand-waving frantically (mostly on AVS) respectively.

That's what I mean by TP...

These kinds of things are ususally recognized AFTER they've happened:

"The tipping point happened back when ********* took place. "

It may have already tipped, but we will recognize it when the fruit of it blooms.

WriteSimply · 07-09-2007, 01:38 PM

The tipping point already happened when SCE released the PS3. Now it's going to get even better with the price decrease/stock reduction of the 60GB PS3 in the US. Start touting the great BD player that the PS3 is!

fuad

GeorgeCaplan · 07-09-2007, 02:07 PM

As radagast says, there will be a series of events that when looking back could all be viewed as the tipping points.
I think it will be when Disney & Pixar animation classics arrive on Blu-ray, such as Toy Story, Monsters Inc, Cars, Jungle Book, Little Mermaid etc.

JTK · 07-09-2007, 02:28 PM

Defintely the forthcoming holiday season.

The Big Blue · 07-09-2007, 02:48 PM

Already happened -> Blockbuster goes Blu

Started a chain reaction of industry decision-making favoring Blu-ray and was the jumping off point for the downhill snowball media-storm of pro-Blu articles whose psychological damage to HD DVD is irrepairable.

JTK · 07-09-2007, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Big Blue

Already happened -> Blockbuster goes Blu

Started a chain reaction of industry decision-making favoring Blu-ray and was the jumping off point for the downhill snowball media-storm of pro-Blu articles whose psychological damage to HD DVD is irrepairable.

Maybe, but honestly? Blockbuster Video isn't nearly the large entity it was a decade or so ago.

If your statement read:"Best Buy goes Blu" instead, I'd agree with you 100 percent and with no hesitation.

Rup_Muk · 07-09-2007, 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WriteSimply

The tipping point already happened when SCE released the PS3. Now it's going to get even better with the price decrease/stock reduction of the 60GB PS3 in the US. Start touting the great BD player that the PS3 is!

fuad

I agree with fuad. It has already happened - with the release of the PS3. We have just got used to seeing a 2:1 ratio in sales week-after-week that we believe we're mired in stagnation. As soon as the SI numbers creep upto this ratio - we're done! This WILL happen - hopefully sooner rather than later. IMHO.

Rup.

Nismobeach · 07-09-2007, 09:55 PM

As stated above, it began on November 17 with the release of the PS3, but ultimately passed the point of no return after the BDA's utter dominant showing at CES 2007.

hmurchison · 07-09-2007, 10:03 PM

The tipping point is clearly Universal going Neutral. That would be the HD DVD equivalent to "raising the white flag"

I wouldn't be Blockbuster as you can still rent HD DVD in some stores and online. There's nothing stopping someone from renting HD DVD online and taking advantage of Blu-ray in the stores.

Get Universal and you secure a victory. Even the most ardent HD DVD supporter would/should agree.

marzetta7 · 07-09-2007, 10:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hmurchison

The tipping point is clearly Universal going Neutral. That would be the HD DVD equivalent to "raising the white flag"

I wouldn't be Blockbuster as you can still rent HD DVD in some stores and online. There's nothing stopping someone from renting HD DVD online and taking advantage of Blu-ray in the stores.

Get Universal and you secure a victory. Even the most ardent HD DVD supporter would/should agree.

Murch! What's up dude.

Well, I have to disagree. When I think of "Tipping Point" I think of a point in time when the momentum tips in favor of any given format. Given this reference, I think the "tipping point" has already occurred with the advent of the PS3...something most of us here claimed would help Blu-ray dominate far before its release. With the PS3, you had HD DVD releasing a 9 month sales lead and being dominated within a matter of a month. This continues to be the case even with Fox MIA and Warner giving Blu-ray the shaft. Quite impressive I'd say.

So in summation, the tipping point has already occurred. In terms of ending the format war no question, I'd agree with you that Universal would have to concede.

marzetta7 · 07-09-2007, 10:21 PM

Ohh yeah, and btw, look for Universal to throw in the towel once the holiday season has ended. Universal will be anemic by then.

December 07 gets my vote.

WickyWoo · 07-09-2007, 10:28 PM

Universal going neutral will be the end of HD DVD's any chance in hell.

Blockbuster was probably the most important tipping point, because a major industry player in retail threw their weight behind BR only. If nothing else, that action probably got a lot of fence sitters to jump down to the blu side, and will probably result in Weinstein going neutral.

GasCat · 07-09-2007, 10:38 PM

Given your definition for a "tipping point" I would say it is almost here.

It's obvious that there are still some people using blogs, forums or PR mouths as a source of information. Journalists need to look at facts on their own and stop trusting what others say.

If there is anyone truly neutral reading this, we're biased as hell here. Go look at the numbers on your own. Decide what it means.

Smackos · 07-09-2007, 10:46 PM

I dont think it has to be Universal going Blu, it could just as well be Warner or Paramount not so much as going exclusive more as giving up on HD DVD as a viable/profitable format for them. If either of these cancel on HD DVD then it'll be finished as a format. What would anyone have bought these last few months if Matrix, Blood Diamond, Superman Returns, Planet Earth or The Departed had'nt been put out recently... Hot Fuzz thats what... let alone the Disturbia, The Shooter, 300 or Zodiac still to come the next month or two.

Forget trying to get Universal to go neutral Sony.. get Warner or Paramount to see the Bluray of light..

BLu-Balls · 07-09-2007, 10:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smackos

I dont think it has to be Universal going Blu, it could just as well be Warner or Paramount not so much as going exclusive more as giving up on HD DVD as a viable/profitable format for them. If either of these cancel on HD DVD then it'll be finished as a format. What would anyone have bought these last few months if Matrix, Blood Diamond, Superman Returns, Planet Earth or The Departed had'nt been put out recently... Hot Fuzz thats what... let alone the Disturbia, The Shooter, 300 or Zodiac still to come the next month or two.

Forget trying to get Universal to go neutral Sony.. get Warner or Paramount to see the Bluray of light..

Here here.

MasterXeus · 07-09-2007, 10:50 PM

I would say Universal going netural is the end of the war, not the tipping Point.

I think we have a few tipping points. PS3 was the first (and a major one)
Blockbuster, I say was a small point. Fox returning will be another one.

From there it's all down hill.

Cheaper Blu-ray players coming.
Major Blockbuster Movie releases.
and then it's all over Universal goes natural.
So ends the war.

Manco · 07-10-2007, 12:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nyg

Haven't we already seen the tipping point? I know I've read more than one article recently that pronounced Blu-ray as the winner.

Agreed.

There was some thread running today with a graph showing Blu-ray at 59%. With the upcoming winners for BD and virtually nothing significant in the hopper for HD-DUD, I think 60% is the tipping point. I seriously doubt they can overcome this lead.

Universal caving in will be the end.

View Poll Results: The Tipping Point will come in:
September 07	9	9.47%
December 07	52	54.74%
Post-CES 08	18	18.95%
June 08	7	7.37%
Anytime now...	9	9.47%
Voters: 95. You may not vote on this poll

07-09-2007, 09:53 AM	#1
What'sHD Senior Member Member since:Feb 2007	Tipping Point for BD - When? When do you think the *Tipping Point* will be in this war? Imagine a situation in which the technical mags begin writing "bye bye hd-dvd" articles and the techie consumer is picking up BD without hesitation as the war winner, even though Toshiba and that other "company" are still reducing player prices/giving away truck-loads of free movies and jumping up & down, hand-waving frantically (mostly on AVS) respectively. That's what I mean by TP...

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07-09-2007, 12:27 PM	#2
nhaase Special Member Member since:Mar 2007 Trading Score:2	I don't know if there will be a "point" per se, but if BD at least maintains a 2:1 YTD sales advantage (which they've had this whole year), I suspect more people will begin seeing the reality of the situation. Maintaining this advantage into September will mean that BD will have had a 2:1 advantage for 3/4 of the year, with no serious challenge by HD DVD. Also, a greater disparity in sales of dual-format releases will show that BD has more market penetration (comparing format-specific sales of 300 vs. The Departed can show somewhat what's going on).

07-09-2007, 01:02 PM	#3
Algernon Active Member Member since:Jul 2007	While I'm highly in favor of Blu (obviously), I'm not so sure it'll happen that fast ... there are identical threads on the HD-DVD forums, "when will Blu-Ray die" and the likes ... However, it would seem that if those 4 studios which produce BD exclusively now will stay exclusive, that'll be the end of HD-DVD, in the long run ... Also, Blockbuster Video's BD decision is interesting

07-09-2007, 01:38 PM	#5
WriteSimply Blu-ray Ninja Member since:Sep 2006 Location:Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia	The tipping point already happened when SCE released the PS3. Now it's going to get even better with the price decrease/stock reduction of the 60GB PS3 in the US. Start touting the great BD player that the PS3 is! fuad

07-09-2007, 02:07 PM	#6
GeorgeCaplan Member Member since:Jul 2007	As radagast says, there will be a series of events that when looking back could all be viewed as the tipping points. I think it will be when Disney & Pixar animation classics arrive on Blu-ray, such as Toy Story, Monsters Inc, Cars, Jungle Book, Little Mermaid etc.

07-09-2007, 02:28 PM	#7
JTK Blu-ray Knight Member since:Jan 2006 Location:www.blurayoasis.com	Defintely the forthcoming holiday season.

07-09-2007, 02:48 PM	#8
The Big Blue Blu-ray Guru Member since:Feb 2007 Blu-ray collection:98 Blu-ray reviews:1	Already happened -> Blockbuster goes Blu Started a chain reaction of industry decision-making favoring Blu-ray and was the jumping off point for the downhill snowball media-storm of pro-Blu articles whose psychological damage to HD DVD is irrepairable.

07-09-2007, 09:55 PM	#11
Nismobeach Senior Member Member since:Dec 2006	As stated above, it began on November 17 with the release of the PS3, but ultimately passed the point of no return after the BDA's utter dominant showing at CES 2007.

07-09-2007, 10:03 PM	#12
hmurchison Banned Member since:Aug 2004 Location:Seaattle	The tipping point is clearly Universal going Neutral. That would be the HD DVD equivalent to "raising the white flag" I wouldn't be Blockbuster as you can still rent HD DVD in some stores and online. There's nothing stopping someone from renting HD DVD online and taking advantage of Blu-ray in the stores. Get Universal and you secure a victory. Even the most ardent HD DVD supporter would/should agree.

07-09-2007, 10:21 PM	#14
marzetta7 Special Member Member since:Feb 2006	Ohh yeah, and btw, look for Universal to throw in the towel once the holiday season has ended. Universal will be anemic by then. December 07 gets my vote.

07-09-2007, 10:28 PM	#15
WickyWoo Blu-ray Champion Member since:May 2007 Trading Score:2	Universal going neutral will be the end of HD DVD's any chance in hell. Blockbuster was probably the most important tipping point, because a major industry player in retail threw their weight behind BR only. If nothing else, that action probably got a lot of fence sitters to jump down to the blu side, and will probably result in Weinstein going neutral.

07-09-2007, 10:38 PM	#16
GasCat Special Member Member since:Jan 2007 Blu-ray reviews:1	Given your definition for a "tipping point" I would say it is almost here. It's obvious that there are still some people using blogs, forums or PR mouths as a source of information. Journalists need to look at facts on their own and stop trusting what others say. If there is anyone truly neutral reading this, we're biased as hell here. Go look at the numbers on your own. Decide what it means.

07-09-2007, 10:46 PM	#17
Smackos Senior Member Member since:Jun 2007 Blu-ray collection:149 Blu-ray reviews:1 Trading Score:8	I dont think it has to be Universal going Blu, it could just as well be Warner or Paramount not so much as going exclusive more as giving up on HD DVD as a viable/profitable format for them. If either of these cancel on HD DVD then it'll be finished as a format. What would anyone have bought these last few months if Matrix, Blood Diamond, Superman Returns, Planet Earth or The Departed had'nt been put out recently... Hot Fuzz thats what... let alone the Disturbia, The Shooter, 300 or Zodiac still to come the next month or two. Forget trying to get Universal to go neutral Sony.. get Warner or Paramount to see the Bluray of light..

07-09-2007, 10:50 PM	#19
MasterXeus Power Member Member since:Mar 2007	I would say Universal going netural is the end of the war, not the tipping Point. I think we have a few tipping points. PS3 was the first (and a major one) Blockbuster, I say was a small point. Fox returning will be another one. From there it's all down hill. Cheaper Blu-ray players coming. Major Blockbuster Movie releases. and then it's all over Universal goes natural. So ends the war.

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