Will Bob Iger Sell Disney’s Linear TV Networks? Insiders, Analysts Debate

[BluBonnet]

Since this is 100% TV-related, I guess it doesn't belong in the movies section.

Will Bob Iger Sell Disney’s Linear TV Networks? Insiders, Analysts Debate

Here’s an example of just how chaotic things are in Hollywood these days: Disney CEO Bob Iger’s recent remarks that the company’s linear TV assets “may not be core” to its business were buried under the lede of his comments that SAG-AFTRA and the WGA are not being “realistic” in their contract negotiations last week.

But now that a small bit of the initial dual strike dust has settled, sources inside and outside of Disney are asking what reaction Iger was looking to provoke by announcing Disney’s intention to “open-minded and objective about the future of those businesses,” which include broadcast network ABC as well as cablers FX, Disney Channel, Nat Geo and Freeform, among others. (Not ESPN, which is run by Jimmy Pitaro under a separate segment of Disney’s business from its other TV and streaming assets.)

“Does he mean all of the linear business or just some of the cable networks? Does he mean ABC and the ABC stations? That part wasn’t clear,” Bank of America Securities media and entertainment analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich told Variety. “I’m not sure exactly what he means, if it’s a complete disposal or some kind of different structure — but he was saying the obvious, meaning the business is incredibly challenged on a secular basis. But he’s maybe even more negative than I would have expected because radio has been around for 100-plus years, but it’s still around. And if you’ve listened to Bob’s remarks, it sounds like linear won’t be around. I think broadcast and cable will be around, in some form, for a long time. But it’s a challenging business and they’re fighting off sub losses daily.”

It should be noted that Iger’s comments come amid a summer primetime ratings win for ABC. Currently, the Disney-owned broadcaster is the top-rated network in both adults 18-49 (0.6) and average total viewers (3.2 million) based on Nielsen data from May 25-July 9. In comparison, NBC has a 0.4 rating and is averaging 2.94 million viewers, Fox is at a 0.3 and 1.6 million viewers, and CBS holds a 0.2 and 2.86 million viewers.

In an offsite meeting for Disney’s TV execs led by Disney Entertainment co-chairman Dana Walden on July 18 — one that had been planned since mid-June and was not scheduled in reaction to Iger’s headline-making interview with CNBC on July 12, the Disney CEO did address his remarks.

“He said that linear and news is very important for the company. He was very honest about that piece, and he said we just have to be mindful about the future business and that we’re going to endure,” a Disney insider said. “But it was one of the things that he talked about.”

“Off site aside, it was something that was immediately addressed by all of our leadership the day he said it,” the source added. “We were all like, we can’t keep our head in the sand about linear ratings. … He never said he was going to sell them — he said they may not be core to the business. But what he did say and has said over and over again, is the content is 100% core to our business. So we will continue making that content, and the way that the distribution might change, that’s something that we have to navigate every day.”

This source says Disney TV employees last reckoned with where their “best content” would be living when Disney+ launched in November 2019, and “we endured that.” “Now, we have to figure out what is the next iteration of that? And everybody is having honest conversations about what that looks like.”

But that still leaves many questions about how Disney is evaulating its existing assets. ABC’s eight owned-and-operated TV stations are beachfront real estate that include strong local news leaders in the nation’s top three TV markets: New York, Los Angeles and Chicago. TV stations still make a lot of money — albeit not as much as they once did — which makes them attractive to financial buyers. But it doesn’t make a lot of sense to sell the O&Os but keep the ABC network.

“Who is going to be in a position to buy ABC and the TV stations without piling more debt on their already debt-laden balance sheets?” a source at a TV station group said. “So it was maybe an unforced error by Iger. I’m not sure what his calculation was, maybe he knew what he was doing all along, if he’s trying to condition the marketplace and his own employees for an eventual change in the real world.”

Another source noted that, while Iger has been supportive of ABC throughout both his first and second tenures as CEO, from the moment that Apple struck its first programming deal in 2005 with Disney for “Desperate Housewives,” “Lost” and other shows as pioneers in the download-to-own model for the iPod, the tech giant has been rumored as a potential buyer of the Mouse House. Now that Iger is back (following the ousting of his brief successor CEO Bob Chapek) and trying to cut costs and increase profit wherever he can, a deal that unloads ABC and other linear assets gets several things off Iger’s streaming-and-parks-focused plate at once.

“Does [Iger] mean what he’s saying or is he just talking to Wall Street? What does Disney even look like without its linear business?” one agency partner said. “It could be he’s just trying to make them look like a good acquisition target. He promises to push off these certain assets and then that sets them up to get acquired by someone like Apple.”

With Disney’s next quarterly earnings set to be announced Aug. 9, Iger is likely to be pressed by Wall Street analysts to expand on his comments. He’ll surely be pushed for more detail on how he’s thinking about the linear assets as well as the overall state of Disney amid the ongoing SAG-AFTRA/WGA dual strike.

“It seems like maybe Bob has bit off a little more than he can chew and perhaps has too many quote-unquote children under his banner,” an exec at an ABC rival broadcaster said.

[Nailwraps]

What is this going to mean for shows like Black-ish and Archer? Are they going to go whoever buys the channels or will they stay with Disney/Fox.

At any rate, I do NOT want this to happen. Linear TV is still an essential regardless how popular streaming has become. Besides, there is a joy of just tuning into a favorite movie or show (and don't forget the events!).

[BluBonnet]

Originally Posted by Nailwraps

What is this going to mean for shows like Black-ish and Archer? Are they going to go whoever buys the channels or will they stay with Disney/Fox.

At any rate, I do NOT want this to happen. Linear TV is still an essential regardless how popular streaming has become. Besides, there is a joy of just tuning into a favorite movie or show (and don't forget the events!).

No decisions have been made about even whether or not to sell anything. So we'll just have to wait.

[kevin87]

Originally Posted by Nailwraps

What is this going to mean for shows like Black-ish and Archer? Are they going to go whoever buys the channels or will they stay with Disney/Fox.

At any rate, I do NOT want this to happen. Linear TV is still an essential regardless how popular streaming has become. Besides, there is a joy of just tuning into a favorite movie or show (and don't forget the events!).

If they're sold, it'd be the broadcast networks not the production company. So, whoever were to buy the network would have to decide what shows they want to keep or cancel, but they won't own them. Disney would still produce and own them. Selling off their production company would be what would affect the assets (aka, who owns the shows). This would be just like Nexstar buying CW. They bought the network, WB and Paramount still owned the shows that they didn't cancel.

Since Black-ish is done, it wouldn't be on anyway... It's only syndicated and AFAIK is only airing on Fox, which Disney doesn't even own. Disney bought 20th Century Fox and changed the name to 20th Century Studios for film and 20th Television for tv, but they didn't get the Fox network. Archer is ending with the upcoming season so even if FX/FXX were to be sold, the season is done and premiering in less than a month so it's unlikely the network would be sold before it finishes airing in October anyway.

I wouldn't think they'd sell ABC... and Disney Channel has name branding so that'd be hard to offload, it'd surely have to change it's name. I don't see the point in FX or FXX even existing if Disney were to sell them since Disney owns FXP (FX Productions) and that's who produces all their shows, so they might as well move any active shows to Hulu. I'm surprised they've kept Nat Geo this long if I'm honest, it and Freeform are the only ones I can see them getting rid of without it being a big deal. Freeform only currently has three shows and one of them is ending, might as well just move the other two to Hulu and get rid of it, same for Disney XD with Disney+.

[Lee A Stewart]

If they sell ABC the network, then he can buy Paramount Global. FCC says only one network per company - can't own ABC and CBS. And CBS is worth a lot more than ABC as far as viewship.

Then they fold Paramount+ into Disney+. That would add an additional 60 million subs. Big catalog of content.

But . . . if he buys the rest of Hulu, Justice Dept. would probably nix a buyout of PG.

[kevin87]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

If they sell ABC the network, then he can buy Paramount Global. FCC says only one network per company - can't own ABC and CBS. And CBS is worth a lot more than ABC as far as viewship.

Then they fold Paramount+ into Disney+. That would add an additional 60 million subs. Big catalog of content.

But . . . if he buys the rest of Hulu, Justice Dept. would probably nix a buyout of PG.

Paramount has as many or more networks than Disney currently does though, and if he wants to sell off what he has, why would he take on Paramount with the same problem?

[Nailwraps]

Like Lee A Stewart said, CBS apparently gets more ratings than ABC does.

The question is, if Disney decides to buy Paramount, would their channels seriously IMPROVE (and it's good question)? Like, would you be able to improve Nick@Nite's or TV Land's ratings by adding something like The Simpsons, Family Guy, American Dad!, or even King of The Hill on certain nights? Would they improve MTV and VH1 by finally going back to their music roots (without sacrificing some of their reality content)?

Another consolation is that Disney would get back their Miramax films they originally distributed while Paramount is reunited with the Marvel films they originally distributed and all of Indiana Jones will be under one roof. Plus they'll have Star Trek and South Park. :P


All these amazing thoughts aside, I think it's best if NO ONE buys Paramount. While I'm happy Disney has Fox now (makes up for the Lucasfilm purchase), I think owning *1* other major studio is enough.

[Lee A Stewart]

There are too many streaming services. Consolidations has been forecasted for the last 2 years. But even without Disney buying Paramount, they will buy Hulu. That's a done deal.

Paramount, Lionsgate, Starz, AMC - all are serious contenders to be bought.

[kevin87]

Disney buying Paramount would mean they'd have a say in those things and would then ruin them probably. Plus, Disney would probably need to sell off 20th's assets or they'd own too many production companies. That's surely nearing monopoly. 3 studios under 1 against Universal, WB, and Sony.

The best thing to do is for everybody to realize they're not special enough for their own dedicated service and go back to licensing their titless out to amalgamated services like Netflix and Prime.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by kevin87

Disney buying Paramount would mean they'd have a say in those things and would then ruin them probably. Plus, Disney would probably need to sell off 20th's assets or they'd own too many production companies. That's surely nearing monopoly. 3 studios under 1 against Universal, WB, and Sony.

Disney Movie Studios:

Disney Pictures
Disney Animation
Pixar
Marvel
20th Century Studios
Lucasfilm

They like Comcast/Universal, WB Discovery and Sony own a host of Television studios.

In business, if you can afford it and it fits right, you buy until the Justice Dept says enough.

The best thing to do is for everybody to realize they're not special enough for their own dedicated service and go back to licensing their titless out to amalgamated services like Netflix and Prime.

They will all license out content - more than before - as there are billions of dollars to be had. And not from Netflix or Prime. From Tubi, Pluto, Filmrise, Roku, Freevee and a whole host of FAST streaming services.

Sorry to disappoint but things move in a forward motion, not backwards.

[kevin87]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Disney Movie Studios:

Disney Pictures
Disney Animation
Pixar
Marvel
20th Century Studios
Lucasfilm

They like Comcast/Universal, WB Discovery and Sony own a host of Television studios.

In business, if you can afford it and it fits right, you buy until the Justice Dept says enough.

Pixar and Marvel and Lucasfilm didn't release stuff themselves though, it was through Fox and Disney. Not really the same as if they bought Paramount. And on top of that, all these TV and catalog titles Paramount has been doing would go away fast. It's bad enough they'd hiding away their own titles and now Fox, we don't need them to do the same to Paramount's titles.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by kevin87

Pixar and Marvel and Lucasfilm didn't release stuff themselves though, it was through Fox and Disney. Not really the same as if they bought Paramount.

No different. Each was a studio making movies before Disney bought them. Don't move the goal posts.

And on top of that, all these TV and catalog titles Paramount has been doing would go away fast. It's bad enough they'd hiding away their own titles and now Fox, we don't need them to do the same to Paramount's titles.

CBS has top franchises like NCIS, FBI and Star Trek along with hit shows like Ghosts and Fire Country. No reason to get rid of them. ABC has crap that no one watches. That's Iger's problem.

Iger stated that they had to license out more content and they have been.

Rome wasn't built in a day.

[kevin87]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

No different. Each was a studio making movies before Disney bought them. Don't move the goal posts.



CBS has top franchises like NCIS, FBI and Star Trek along with hit shows like Ghosts and Fire Country. No reason to get rid of them. ABC has crap that no one watches. That's Iger's problem.

Iger stated that they had to license out more content and they have been.

Rome wasn't built in a day.

They're licensing out what was already on disc though. All the rest would be locked away, especially shows.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by kevin87

They're licensing out what was already on disc though. All the rest would be locked away, especially shows.

Disney's interest in disc is waning just like all the other studios. Follow the money and the money is coming from licensing content to other SVODs and FAST (Free Ad Supported Television) streamers.

[kevin87]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Disney's interest in disc is waning just like all the other studios. Follow the money and the money is coming from licensing content to other SVODs and FAST (Free Ad Supported Television) streamers.

Disney's interest in disc has been barely existent for longer than everybody else, basically only doing new movies or catalog titles that have a new sequel. Where as Paramount is pumping out catalog titles and streaming exclusives left and right. That would probably all go away if Disney bought them.

[Gizz]

Originally Posted by kevin87

Disney's interest in disc has been barely existent for longer than everybody else, basically only doing new movies or catalog titles that have a new sequel. Where as Paramount is pumping out catalog titles and streaming exclusives left and right. That would probably all go away if Disney bought them.

Thankfully Disney can't buy Paramount due to the fact that they own 20th Century-Fox and look what a mess they have made of that. The idea of Disney buying another studio is a terrifying idea.

[Nailwraps]

Iger said he wanted to return to physical media:
https://www.mediaplaynews.com/disney...-video-window/

Plus, the Cinderella and TNBC 4K pre-orders have been doing phenomenally on Amazon. But like Lee A Stewart said "Follow the money" and the money is in sublicensing (Disney too can make a fortune with this).

Getting back to the topic of ABC and linear TV in general, people should be watching more of it. Like I said, it has things streaming doesn't. Plus there IS a deal of great content on ABC like Abbott Elementary, The Connors, The Good Doctor, The Rookie, Grey's Anatomy, General Hospital, etc. AND they're continuing 911, so why aren't people watching?

Maybe some classic programming can help. With the Writer/SAG strike going on a lot of shows are going to go on hiatus and Henry Winkler came up with a good idea about re-airing Happy Days for CBS:

https://twitter.com/SteveSchmidtSES/...58194527404033

He makes a very good point and I honestly think CBS, ABC and other networks should take this ball and roll with it.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Gizz

Thankfully Disney can't buy Paramount due to the fact that they own 20th Century-Fox and look what a mess they have made of that. The idea of Disney buying another studio is a terrifying idea.

Owning 20th Century has nothing to do with why they can't buy Paramount. It's all focused on ABC and CBS. FCC says you can't own 2 networks. But if Disney sells off ABC, then they could buy Paramount as there would be no conflict of interest.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Nailwraps

Iger said he wanted to return to physical media:
https://www.mediaplaynews.com/disney...-video-window/

That was almost 3 years ago. In that timeframe physical media sales have dropped from $6.8 billion down to $2.5 billion - worldwide.

Plus, the Cinderella and TNBC 4K pre-orders have been doing phenomenally on Amazon. But like Lee A Stewart said "Follow the money" and the money is in sublicensing (Disney too can make a fortune with this).

Agree

Getting back to the topic of ABC and linear TV in general, people should be watching more of it. Like I said, it has things streaming doesn't. Plus there IS a deal of great content on ABC like Abbott Elementary, The Connors, The Good Doctor, The Rookie, Grey's Anatomy, General Hospital, etc. AND they're continuing 911, so why aren't people watching?

But streaming has one very big positive that linear TV does not - no ads.

The amount of content at consumer's fingertips is staggering. And streamers focus on new, original content. That is where the eyeballs are going.

Maybe some classic programming can help. With the Writer/SAG strike going on a lot of shows are going to go on hiatus and Henry Winkler came up with a good idea about re-airing Happy Days for CBS:

https://twitter.com/SteveSchmidtSES/...58194527404033

He makes a very good point and I honestly think CBS, ABC and other networks should take this ball and roll with it.

LOL - well - they will have to do something. Come September when new seasons and show premier, that won't happen now due to the strikes.

[Gizz]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Owning 20th Century has nothing to do with why they can't buy Paramount. It's all focused on ABC and CBS. FCC says you can't own 2 networks. But if Disney sells off ABC, then they could buy Paramount as there would be no conflict of interest.

OK I always thought that after buying Fox you could not buy another studio. But that still makes Disney having a monopoly and at the moment that is still a terrifying idea they have all but wiped out 20th Century Fox classic titles if Disney gets it hands on Paramount kiss goodbye to the classics.

I have to say that I really hope Disney does not buy Paramount I don't like what they have done with Fox and given that they are thinking about going for full control Hulu. Maybe buying another Studio is not a good idea given the money problems they are in. And I don't want Disney Star Trek.