Yikes! 300 sells 250K copies since 7/31

[RUR]

From the warner press release:

"BURBANK, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Today Warner Home Video (WHV) announced that it has the fastest and highest-selling high definition title in the market with the epic action-adventure, “300.” Since July 31, 2007, “300” has sold more than 250,000 copies to consumers on HD DVD and Blu-ray Disc."
etc.
http://home.businesswire.com/portal/...67&newsLang=en

Here's hoping the BD/HD DVD ratio is completely cockeyed.

[dakota81]

Here's hoping at least 200k Blu, 50k red. Could be interesting. It's the PS3 demographic, versus those curious about the HD DVD interactive features. I have to give the edge to the PS3 demographic. Heavily.

No matter what the split is, it's great for the future of hi def movies on optical disc.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by RUR

From the warner press release:

"BURBANK, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Today Warner Home Video (WHV) announced that it has the fastest and highest-selling high definition title in the market with the epic action-adventure, “300.” Since July 31, 2007, “300” has sold more than 250,000 copies to consumers on HD DVD and Blu-ray Disc."
etc.
http://home.businesswire.com/portal/...67&newsLang=en

Here's hoping the BD/HD DVD ratio is completely cockeyed.

“‘300’ is an amazing film, and the high definition sales we are seeing underscores the positive business benefits of supporting both HD DVD and Blu-ray,” said Ron Sanders, President of Warner Home Video. “This phenomenal response to ‘300’ is the latest proof that our approach makes the most sense in today’s market and has enabled Warner Home Video to continue to lead the market in high definition sales.”

So, the Blu-ray version kicked ass, and they are trying to sell the board and shareholders why they should continue supporting HD DVD.

Gary

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by dakota81

Here's hoping at least 200k Blu, 50k red. Could be interesting. It's the PS3 demographic, versus those curious about the HD DVD interactive features. I have to give the edge to the PS3 demographic. Heavily.

No matter what the split is, it's great for the future of hi def movies on optical disc.

Absolutely. This is a huge big deal for HD discs. 250K is real serious money. I bet a lot of DVD releases don't see that in the first week.

But, 4:1 would be sweet.

[darinp2]

Originally Posted by RUR

Here's hoping the BD/HD DVD ratio is completely cockeyed.

Wow. 250k to stores would be one thing, but 250k to consumers is pretty incredible. I wonder what percentage are in the US or North America.

As far as the ratio, I predicted 1.6:1 on the AVSForum, but with this high a number I'm thinking higher for Blu-ray. Basically, if there are 400k unique HD DVD owners worldwide and 20% of them bought this disc, that would be 80k to 170k for Blu-ray, or over 2:1. I know some will think 20% for 80k sounds too low, but I think that is more than Batman Begins on HD DVD has sold and that has been out since last year. I know 300 is popular, but should we expect it to sell more on HD DVD in its first week than Batman Begins has sold in over 9 months? I can't wait to see the percentages and the ratio. It won't surprise me if some people continue on their campaign that sales aren't near what DVD sales are, so they don't matter.

Using an analogy I've used elsewhere, if a baby oak is 3' tall it would be ridiculous to trash it as if it won't really survive to be a big oak based on it not being as big as an old oak tree, when that old oak was 3' tall when it was the same age. Or something like that.

--Darin

[dialog_gvf]

Apparently, the title didn't matter. Warner and xboxboi and rdjam have decided 300 sold 250K units simply because it was available on both formats.

Apparently, BD owners only buy titles in big numbers if HD DVD people can buy them too. So, all the studios should rush to neutrality to gain this special philanthropic boost.

[darinp2]

Given the even better reviews from critics and that I think they will make in about the same ballpark at the US box office, it would be interesting to compare 300's first week on high definition disc to The Bourne Ultimatum's first week on high definition disc, if Universal is still exclusive to HD DVD. The latter one has the advantage that there should be more players by then. I think many Blu-ray owners don't buy DVDs anymore and so Universal isn't going to get money from the group of exclusive Blu-ray owners who also don't buy DVDs. The same applies to exclusive studios on the Blu-ray side, but not to the same degree in general with the higher sales there and of course these studios need to look at what they are trying to gain in the long run (not selling out the short run and losing in the long run). But 100k lost sales at $10 marginal profit average would be another million in the coffers.

I think Sony is shooting themselves in the foot somewhat with their pricing on SM3 and I wonder if that combined with some lost sales from being on just Blu-ray (even though the dominant format), and coming out later, will mean that 300 will outsell it on next gen disc this year.

And the first week for Transformers should be huge with even more players out there by then.

I bet there are some people within side Warner who would love to stop releasing on Blu-ray, but if the ratio is big toward Blu-ray that pretty much puts the kibosh on that. And from one thing I read it sounds like they were trying to favor the HD DVD in their advertising.

--Darin

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by darinp2

I think Sony is shooting themselves in the foot somewhat with their pricing on SM3 and I wonder if that combined with some lost sales from being on just Blu-ray (even though the dominant format), and coming out later, will mean that 300 will outsell it on next gen disc this year.

Well, what we don't know is how much it costs Warner to release on two formats. The extra format cost could eat away all the profits of the extra sales.

Gary

[dialog_gvf]

Let's assume Warner is right.

Who is being more stupid:

(1) Fox, MGM, Disney, Lionsgate and Sony for missing out on 30/70 (42%) more sales.

(2) Universal for missing out on 70/30 (133%) more sales?

It's funny how the HD DVD camp all agree Warner is right, but would never agree that Universal should make the first move because they have the most to gain.

Sacrifice the 133% gain and push the others to go neutral. That's the way of maximizing their profits.

Gary

[gand41f]

Originally Posted by darinp2

I think many Blu-ray owners don't buy DVDs anymore and so Universal isn't going to get money from the group of exclusive Blu-ray owners who also don't buy DVDs. The same applies to exclusive studios on the Blu-ray side

You are wrong on the second point. HD DVD owners still buy DVDs, remember how many of them are saying that they will be happy with Sony/Fox/Disney movies on DVD because XA2 upscales so well....

enjoy
gandalf

[gand41f]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

It's funny how the HD DVD camp all agree Warner is right, but would never agree that Universal should make the first move because they have the most to gain.

Ironically, Bourne Ultimatum may have just destroyed plazman's argument that Disney gains more by going neutral that Universal. Darin, do you want to bring that up with him again?

enjoy
gandalf

[scott1256ca]

darinp2 wrote

Basically, if there are 400k unique HD DVD owners worldwide and 20% of them bought this disc

If there are 400k HD DVD owners out there, would you expect roughly 200k of them to be xbox add on owners? Wouldn't that be the same demographic that 300 is aimed at? Would it be unreasonable to expect close to, say 40% of them bought this movie? These are the correct demographic, and they made a conscious choice to buy it for HD movies. That is 80k right there. Balance that against 4m ps3 owners where we know a high percentage have not been buying disks (20% or so?). In total ps3 owners are also the correct demographic, but we don't know what the demographic is of that specific 20%. For instance, I own a ps3, am not in that demographic, and really have little interest in 300. So high sales may mean the HD DVD will sell better than the 2:1 ratio. If the ratio for HD DVD is good (i.e. 40% or better) with the Nielson numbers on Friday, I'll be avoiding AVS because the HD DVD guys will be insufferable. Here's to hoping you are right and the ratio is better than 2:1 for BD.

[Rob Zuber]

In lieu of scientific numbers, we can take a look at stock levels at Amazon (For entertainment purposes only. Please, no wagering ).

They currently have 2494 BDs and 1573 HD-DVDs of the movie.

BD
http://www.eproductwars.com/products...5391161035.cfm

HD-DVD
http://www.eproductwars.com/products...5391137641.cfm

[darinp2]

Originally Posted by gand41f

Ironically, Bourne Ultimatum may have just destroyed plazman's argument that Disney gains more by going neutral that Universal. Darin, do you want to bring that up with him again?

Not sure. As you probably know, I already tried to lead him to that in a rational discussion and instead he decided to hide and act like he wasn't saying that the more successful a studio's titles are, the more likely they are to go neutral. Then he waited until we weren't in that discussion and turned around and tried pushing that agenda he had pretty much disavowed again. There's probably something about betrayal in there somewhere.

Maybe Blu-ray fans should be happy that The Bourne Ultimatum is doing so well with critics and at the box office (at least in the US).

--Darin

[darinp2]

Originally Posted by scott1256ca

If there are 400k HD DVD owners out there, would you expect roughly 200k of them to be xbox add on owners? Wouldn't that be the same demographic that 300 is aimed at? Would it be unreasonable to expect close to, say 40% of them bought this movie? These are the correct demographic, and they made a conscious choice to buy it for HD movies. That is 80k right there.

My gut would agree with you if I hadn't been following the sales figures. After seeing how Batman Begins has sold even with earlier adopters and at $19.99 lots of places, I think there are a lot more renters out there than many realized. Or we have been missing lots of sales figures. But, Warner saying that The Departed got to 100k would seem to indicate that we haven't been missing a lot of the sales.

Before Tuesday I don't think any HD DVD had sold even 80k since inception.

Also, there are the dual format owners and many of them may have bought the Blu-ray version even if they have an XBOX360 add-on.

--Darin

[JadedRaverLA]

Normally I'm not one to question studio numbers, but there's so much that doesn't make sense about Warner selling 250k discs of "300" in only one week. How many of these discs did they make for this title? If the highest-selling title to date has really been "The Departed" and it sold 100k over the course of several months, why would Warner have 250k discs of "300" ready to go for the first week of release? Perhaps more importantly, what stores bought that many copies? I'm sure they knew it would sell well, but again, going on past sales trends, what stores would order that many copies?

Also, what tracking service has Warner used to measure sales to consumers? Since Monday was the last day of the first week of sales, who is providing them data in "real time," in order to get out a press release at 12:01am on Tuesday?

My guess is that demand was huge, and stores are asking to be retocked ASAP. Warner's doing their best, and has likely shipped 250k copies by midnight tonight (or maybe they haven't, and it's really just 250k sold to stores). Again, just my guess. One thing that's interesting is that while Edelman is the PR firm for Warner HD, their other releases always list a press contact at Warner, not just Edelman, whereas this one only gives the Edelman contact, and doesn't have the Warner logo all the others have. Somewhat odd.

At any rate, if the numbers are truly sold to consumers (we should have a good idea on Friday), then the real question becomes what at what ratio are the discs selling at? If all things were truly equal, I'd guess Blu-ray over HD DVD by at LEAST 3:1. Unfortunately, the Blu-ray version is the one that was getting sold out everywhere (including Amazon at a couple of times), costing the Blu-ray version sales. At the end of the day, I'm still betting on around 2.5:1 favoring Blu-ray for the first week, with the disparity to grow as time goes on. If 25-30% of HD DVD's install base really bought this title in the first week, sales are going to necessarily plummet. There's just no one left to sell to.

[Blu_J]

Originally Posted by JadedRaverLA

If 25-30% of HD DVD's install base really bought this title in the first week, sales are going to necessarily plummet. There's just no one left to sell to.

True that.

[Monkeykong2215]

Originally Posted by dakota81

Here's hoping at least 200k Blu, 50k red. Could be interesting. It's the PS3 demographic, versus those curious about the HD DVD interactive features. I have to give the edge to the PS3 demographic. Heavily.

No matter what the split is, it's great for the future of hi def movies on optical disc.

Yeah, I feel that the PS3 is a huge help for BD. I have a PS3 and I bought 300 the first day it came out.

[POTC123]

this is huge for 300, but IMO Spider-Man will eclipse its record, and Pirates: At World's End will break that record

[yeslek]

Originally Posted by Monkeykong2215

Yeah, I feel that the PS3 is a huge help for BD. I have a PS3 and I bought 300 the first day it came out.

i'm still waiting for mine to be shipped over from the US .... and with all the postal strikes over here its just going to take even longer