How long will it take for Blu-ray to take over dvd?

[Bluerayfan]

There are Millions of movies that are not out on blu how long do you think it will take ?

I think another 10 years

[Blu-Benny]

there's no way of knowing the answer to this question b/c there are too many things that can come into play that may or may not speed up the adoption of blu-ray.

enjoy it now that it's here and cross the bridge when you come to it when the next kind of media is made available.

welcome to the boards.

[Stephan.klose]

it might go real fast with real collectors, since often Blu Ray's are already cheaper than the 2 Disc DVD Editions..
But The base of DVD is just so high, you have a player in almost every home, and they are cheap as hell so I still think it might take a while

[P@t_Mtl]

Even with DVD, not every movie ever made made it to DVD, or even on VHS. I pick up those that I truly want as they become available.

I am sure a new format will come along before all of the movies made it to BD

[solarrdadd]

as soon as they stop making DVD's!

[Astrakan]

I know I'm not the first one to say it, and I also know it's a very unpopular opinion around here, but I for one don't think Blu-ray will ever replace DVD.

I think they'll continue to co-exist peacefully for a good, long while and eventually they'll both be replaced by something else. Some say that something else will be downloads, and I for one tend to agree. But even if it's not downloads, I don't think we'll have a one format market again until a 3rd delivery format comes along at some point in the future.

A quick disclaimer in an attempt at staving off attacks or attempts to engage in a pointless back-and-forth bickering with me:

I've got no figures or hard facts to back it up, it's just a gut feeling strengthened to a certain extent by the history of VHS/Laserdisc existing side-by-side until the advent of DVD. I acknowledge that's not a valid 1:1 comparison, but it's something. Point is, I'm not about to engage in a debate on this, as there's nothing to debate. I have this gut feeling and that's that.

KM

[P@t_Mtl]

There is a good chance DVD could be around for a good time yet, it might get phased out much slower then other format have in the past.

[Blu-Benny]

Originally Posted by Astrakan

I know I'm not the first one to say it, and I also know it's a very unpopular opinion around here, but I for one don't think Blu-ray will ever replace DVD.

I think they'll continue to co-exist peacefully for a good, long while and eventually they'll both be replaced by something else. Some say that something else will be downloads, and I for one tend to agree. But even if it's not downloads, I don't think we'll have a one format market again until a 3rd delivery format comes along at some point in the future.

A quick disclaimer in an attempt at staving off attacks or attempts to engage in a pointless back-and-forth bickering with me:

I've got no figures or hard facts to back it up, it's just a gut feeling strengthened to a certain extent by the history of VHS/Laserdisc existing side-by-side until the advent of DVD. I acknowledge that's not a valid 1:1 comparison, but it's something. Point is, I'm not about to engage in a debate on this, as there's nothing to debate. I have this gut feeling and that's that.

KM

only thing i'm gonna disagree w/u on is i personally don't believe downloads will take the place of hard media.

1: i think there will always be more people that want a hard media.

2: it scares the crap out of me to think of paying for and downloading a movie and have something happen only to loose it.

3: download times for a movie now aren't the fastest thing in the world....and that's not even for high definition. it takes me between 10-25 min. to download digital copies on itunes!!!

[Astrakan]

Originally Posted by Blu-Benny

2: it scares the crap out of me to think of paying for and downloading a movie and have something happen only to loose it.

I understand this. My suspicion is that home video will move towards a streaming rental system as opposed to an owning system. Meaning, in the future people will simply pay a monthly fee to have access to an online library of tens of thousands of movies at the click of a button, as opposed to storing their own library of purchased movies.

Perhaps I'm underestimating the desire of people to own their media, but I think that (especially for the generation that's currently in the 12-15 age bracket) people in general will come to appreciate the convenience of the streaming system I explained above over the desire to own the movies.

Not only does streaming a movie make the download speed less of an issue since the downloading will happen as you watch it, but as download speeds increase over the dozen years or so, this will become even less of an issue.

Could be I'm wrong. Time will tell.

KM

[ViralIncubator]

You'll know the end is near for DVD when new movies are released on Blu-ray only. That may be with the 3D _Avatar_ release, because I don't think there will be a 3D DVD release.

[dolphinc]

I think within 10 years fiber will be run throughout most of the major cites and surrounding areas. This will make available the option to either download or stream true HD quality films to the masses. That being said I think DVD will only die off when all disc media dies off. Maybe 15 years?

[P@t_Mtl]

Originally Posted by ViralIncubator

You'll know the end is near for DVD when new movies are released on Blu-ray only. That may be with the 3D _Avatar_ release, because I don't think there will be a 3D DVD release.

But you will still have a DVD Avatar even if the 3D is only available for BD. The release of a movie only on BD is still a few years away I think, the differences in who own BD vs DVD is still not enough for studios to ignore such a market

[dolphinc]

Originally Posted by P@t_Mtl

But you will still have a DVD Avatar even if the 3D is only available for BD. The release of a movie only on BD is still a few years away I think, the differences in who own BD vs DVD is still not enough for studios to ignore such a market

Agree, it would be completely counter-productive for a studio to turn its back on DVD. DVD total sales still outnumber Blus 10 to 1. Blu is gaining ground but not fast enough.

[koontz1973]

If we go by VHS/DVD time line;

VHS-Early 80's - Died 2008 - 25+lifespan, DVD started in 1996, 12 years of overlap

then DVD should be around for another 10-15 years easily. The next format, whatever it is will put the final nail in the coffin for DVD.

[Mr. Cinema]

Originally Posted by ViralIncubator

You'll know the end is near for DVD when new movies are released on Blu-ray only. That may be with the 3D _Avatar_ release, because I don't think there will be a 3D DVD release.

They'll definitely release a regular version of that on DVD that will probably sell 15 million easy.

[Mr. Cinema]

To answer the question, I think the answer is never. I think DVD, BD, and a download option will co-exist. I don't see any of these options going away and consumers like multiple options. ALL of them can succeed. I do think that older catalog titles on DVD will start to get phased out over time, but I think day & date releases will continue to debut on DVD for quite awhile. There's still alot of money made.

[Bluerayfan]

Also they said once you seen blu ray you will never go back to dvd. Blu ray totally blows dvd out of the water.

[aggienader08]

In my collection blu-ray has vastly overcome DVD. I think I only own like 30 or DVDs now. But out in the real world it seems like DVD is sorta taking over blu-ray especially with this new Universal combo disc thing. I mean that is a perfect example of blu-ray literally getting taken over, when you have to give a whole side of the disc!? Common! I'm just kidding. I think that more movies will make it to blu-ray than DVD though. I just don't know when it will all unfold. I think this because they've started a new trend of restoring movies to HD and all, and there are more restorationists out there than ever, and studios will want their catalog to look its best. Blu-ray is the only format which will allow them to do that.

[MaCruz]

Originally Posted by Bluerayfan

Also they said once you seen blu ray you will never go back to dvd. Blu ray totally blows dvd out of the water.

Most of us think that way, but there's a few individuals that still prefer keeping their DVD's instead of double dipping and upgrading the movie to BD.

[Bluerayfan]

Puts me off buying new movies on dvd becouse they will look ten times better on blu help what should i do ?